SPX prints a new all-time high at 1597.35 at 11:30 AM within three points of 1600. SPX is moving sideways through 1592-1597 for the last four hours. Same old story with volume all this week; today's run rate at only about three-quarters of a day's average volume. VIX 12.53. TRIN 0.90. FXY is dropping all day now down on the day at 98.01 moving the SPX higher. The 10-year yield is dead flat at 1.79% showing no shift from bonds to stocks. The beat goes on.
Note Added 3:31 PM: The sideways stutter continues. SPX 1593.36. Volume remains below average at a run rate of about three-quarters of a day's average expected volume. VIX 12.41. TRIN 0.86. FXY 98.04. The 10-year yield 1.79%.
Note Added 4:02 PM: SPX finishes at a new all-time high at 1597.35 printed before lunch and a new all-time closing high at 1593.37. Volume is below average. VIX closes at 12.24 sitting on support for another evening, and the drop was in the last minute from 12.44. TRIN 0.93. FXY 98.11. The slight up in TRIN and FXY helped the bears into the close. Markets idled through the 1592-1597 range today ahead of the JPM and WFC bank earnings in the morning as well as Retail Sales data. The Dow was up 0.42%, the SPX up 0.36%, RUT up 0.10% and Nasdaq 0.09%. This shows the dividend and blue chip perceived safe haven bubbles are pumped higher today while small caps lag and tech brings up the rear. Small caps and tech should be leading not lagging in a healthy rally environment. The volume shows a lack of enthusiasm at these lofty levels.
volume and tech have been lagging ever since the 2009 low. not what you'd expect of a real bull market, volume was even higher yr ago, which was in turn lower compared the previous yr etc. DOW should not be leading IMHO, means surge to big tickers, not a surge to small-caps... can we say dividend bubble indeed...???
ReplyDeleteEven y'day wasn't a real big bull day; below average volme, advances vs declines was only 3.5:1, neither thus a 90% up day (which it hasn't seen since Jan 2nd...). One would like to see big volume and 80+% days. Not happening... Big red candle days have largest volume; what does that tell us???
Regardless, price is up... Will the real market driver please stand up? Yes you FED, BOJ and Draghi.
Being tired, I've fallen asleep with the head on my desk and I've had the most awful dream ... imagine Pretcher preaching 6000 point on SPX :)
DeleteV.
arnie, how reliable are 5th waves since pretzel has warned traders of never banking on 5th waves. at what levels could there be truncation?
Deletearnie, do you have the same target as v. at 1640? are you long right now? currently long using SPY...
ReplyDeletewatch out Anon cause the 1640 target might experience a truncation to 1604 target (if it's a rising diagonale) or to 1624.
DeleteONLY if it's a classic 5th wave it targets 1640-1648. And until now I have some doubts related to the internal structure of this possible 5th wave.
Being long on the 5th wave it's just like playing with fire. If you have profits I suggest seizing them step by step (in 20 to 25% step starting with the 1598 price level). Don't get greedy in the 5th wave (or whatever this d*mn thing is, diagonale or something else) cause the risk/reward here it's quite dangerous !
After seizing the profits (if they already are! don't even think to get long here at almost 1600!) stay in cash , don't get (yet!) short! Be short only when the cascade will start! Being short BEFORE the start of cascade is the dumbest thing possible and a pure expression of greed!
I'm sure you know that telling : bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered! Don't be greedy, be wise!
V.
KS, the SPXA150R print is 90.40. Even in this environment, do you still believe that shorting is preferable once the print is over 90? I believe this is the highest print of 2013. Haven't checked NYMO or CPC yet.
ReplyDeleteYes, the SPXA150R gives the bulls an advantage but wait for the Friday print for confirmation that it wants to stay above 90, or not. It's a coin flip, if the bank earnings and Retail Sales are weak, the bears win, if the bank earnings are blow-out to the upside and the Retail Sales better than expected, the SPX will move over 1600 and higher. Keybot remains long but the short term technical's favor the short side. The Fed and BOJ keep negating the spank downs, for now. The VIX move at the bell will also tell you the market direction as well as the yen.
DeleteKS/Arnie/Weaver - I just posted this with some of my bearish thoughts and charts. Let me know what you think.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.learningmarkets.com/market-top-looming-long-spy-puts/
TRIN is more pertinent for use in day to day action. If day trading, the TRIN and TICK are uber important. On the earnings seasonality, the spring pullbacks are more due to the QE's running out of gas. QE2 started Aug-Sept 2010 and ran out of gas in the spring of 2011 causing the pullback. The Operation Twist and ECB's LTRO 1 and 2 ran out of gas in spring 2012. Now we see if the current QE's run out of gas. The BOJ, as shown in this morning's yen chart is playing a key role over the last couple months. So you may want to add a paragraph on the yen. Once the QE oomph fades, volatility spikes and markets drop. The central banker intervention, Fed, ECB and especially BOJ, surpass everything else, economic data, earnings, etc.. That is why you see weak data, weak CAT, FDX, YUM and on and on, but markets do not care, the CB's crack cocaine provides the fix adn that is all the markets care about.
Deleteinteresting points terrence. i went short today using spxs..so i hope your top calling is correct. where will this pullback take us before dip buyers will come in again?
ReplyDeleteI'm right there with you with SPY puts in full disclosure. There is no reversal price pattern developed yet that I can estimate a target price to the downside, but I think the peak of the most recent high around 1530 on the SPX (153 on the SPY) is likely where we'd see buyers coming in to support. More shorter term targets could be based on daily pivot points and moving averages, which change every day.
DeleteKeep watching the CPC for the plus 1.20 prints. The days and weeks move along but markets are not attractive on the long side until the CPC prints above 1.2. If you want to be as safe as possible and keep risk very low, simply spend time building a really good long shopping list plan, pick potential plays in different sectors to stay diversified and simply be patient. And do not play any longs until you see the CPC print over 1.2, it may be next week, or next month, it should be soon. In the mean time, some longs can be played but the best ones are ones that are beaten down and set up with positive divergence, those can be nibbled on. Place a miner or two on the long shopping list, they are setting up nicely despite the beatings they are taking. All the folks buying long now, chasing the dividend plays, utes, healthcare, staples, they all think that is safe but those charts are all setting up with negative divergence and will roll over as we move into and through spring time.
DeleteI like how you're thinking about it. Wait for the panic drop that we know is going to come eventually. Keep the powder dry.
DeleteCheck out my bearish trade idea on a utility called OGE. Earnings are coming soon and I'm expecting another wild day. Last 2 earnings reports had extreme volatility and shook out a lot of investors in subsequent days:
http://www.learningmarkets.com/bubble-in-utilities-short-oge/
That is an obscene move in OGE, wow, from 57 to over 70 in only a months time, 19%. Perhaps it was a highly shorted stock and it had a mass short covering rally. FSLR had a massive short squeeze this week in the States. OGE is negatively diverged across all indicators on weekly and daily charts now, overbot conditions, yep, it is not one to chase long, it is a good short candidate, the MACD line on the weekly chart is the only indicator still pointing up, so it should likely roll over during the next week or two.
DeleteKS, how does AA or AMD look for a long-term buy and hold?
ReplyDeleteAA is likely an attractive long term play, or a place to park money since in a large market sell off it will likely be less effected, AA may move down to the 7's, however. The aluminum capacity is an issue since China built many plants but it is in a long term basing and it appears to be attractive from a long term perspective. AMD gets hit on every bad news bite about PC's. Global PC shipments are the lowest quarter every, that is what hit HPQ and others today. HPQ and AMD will move in the same direction. AMD never filled the 2.2 gap on the weekly chart so that remains an issue and the PC shipment news hurt them. The headache is that AMD supplies chips mainly to the PC's when the mobile chips suppliers like ARMH are the future. But ARMH already ran higher. On a major market pull back ARMH may be more attractive since the mobile chips are the future. Maybe review the Positions and Picks page at the bottom where all the long term thoughts are mentioned. Mine that for further ideas to consider over the long term. If AMD could catch a break where it gets involved in mobile chips that would be a huge plus. Also of interest is the potential bull flag on AMD now on the weekly chart, see leg one from 1.8 to 2.9, difference of 1.1, now it is in the consolidation flag and received the bounce from 2.3, so, 2.3+1.1 is a 3.4 target if the bull flag plays out. Also if the economy does pick up over the next year or two, a PC refresh cycle will occur as folks are finally put back to work, that will need PC's, and AMD will benefit.
ReplyDelete