Keystone's Midday Market Action 4/8/13; AA; Chairman Bernanke

The bears made a push for glory today with VIX 14.47, and achieved their goal at 10:30 AM, but then promptly fell on their sword. The VIX collapses down to 13.79 printing at today's lows right now. The SOX is moving sideways through 419-420 today well off the 424.80 the bulls need to move the broad indexes higher. Thus, both VIX is under 14.47 and SOX is under 424.80, so neither side wants to take the ball and run. Both are sitting on the bench waiting to hear from double A at 4 PM and Chairman Bernanke at 7 PM. XLF is 18.03 well above the 17.82 danger line. So it is a lazy hazy day of spring to begin the new week.

The SPX moves sideways through the 1549-1554 range so the bulls are unable to tag 1560 so far, and bears unable to push under 1540 so far, thus, more sideways action.  TRIN is at 0.96, call it flat at the neutral 1.00 level, so it does not even want to pick a side today.  Markets float sideways with no conviction either way. VIX 14.47 is the most important parameter affecting market direction right now.

Note Added 1:46 PM:  SPX pops to 1555. SOX pops to 420. VIX drops to 13.67. TRIN collapses to 0.77 supplying bull fuel. XLF is at 18.06. Something happy just happened. SPX now at 1556 working towards the 1560 touch the bulls need today to launch further upside. The 8 MA moves above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. Bears need to move the SPX lower quickly or the bulls are going to want to run the indexes higher into the mid-week. The 10-year yield is up one tick to 1.73%. Crude oil 93.19.  Gold 1573. Euro 1.3014. VIX 50-day MA is 13.57 so watch this critical test of support.

Note Added 2:44 PM:  The VIX continues to test the 50-day MA at 13.57 now printing 13.51. At the same time, the SPX is back kissing the 20-day MA at 1557.69 and price is exactly on top of this level right now. Bulls keep pushing SOX higher and it keeps printing new highs now at 421.91.

Note Added 4:48 PM:  That turned out to be a wild erratic finish turning the lazy hazy day into a wild upside orgy. SOX moved back into the bull camp in the final minutes. The bulls goosed the semiconductors in the afternoon since that was the way to have the markets recover. The SOX jumped from 419 to 424 in the final two hours. The SOX level of interest, identified by Keybot, dropped like a stone as the semi's were goosed. Watch SOX 423.90 and SOX closed at 424.17, a remarkable recovery today, placing the semi's back in the bull camp and creating market bullishness. The SPX closed on the high at 1563. VIX collapsed to 13.19. Keybot the Quant wants to flip long and would have if the market was open a few more minutes. For tomorrow, if the SPX remains above 1563, Keybot will flip long. The bears have to push SOX under 423.90 at the opening bell tomorrow to save the day and resume the downside, otherwise, the bulls will be driving the bus again. The market bears cannot receive a break; the markets are not permitted to correct due to the ongoing central banker intervention. The volume was running at a paltry two-thirds rate today, and increased in the final half hour, but finished at only about 85% of a days average expected volume. This compares to sell days that run 110%. AA earnings caused the stock to jump higher, then go negative, and now trade about 8 pennies to the upside, flat overall. Chairman Bernanke is washing down his Porterhouse steak with a drink from the Fed's punch bowl as he prepares to talk in a couple hours. So, for Tuesday, Bernanke's words matter this evening and then SPX 1563 and SOX 423.90 dictate market direction when the bell rings. Bears need SOX sub 423.90 and they will be fine, otherwise, the bulls will run markets higher with SOX remaining above 423.90. At JCP, Ron Johnson was just axed and the stock receives a pop in AH's trading.