VIX Volatility Daily Chart

The bears had the markets in their grasp today with the rising VIX, but the 14.50 prints only lasted fifteen minutes when the bears fell down the steps again. The markets will float higher if the VIX is under 14.42.  The markets will sell off when VIX moves above 14.42.  Last week the bears day was ruined when the 200-week MA at 15.61 spanked the VIX back downwards. Today, the VIX wrestled with the 50-day MA at 13.56 but the bears lost this fight into the closing bell. The 20-day MA is 13.01 and serves as support for tomorrow. Note the support at 12.50 as well which would be the last chance for the bears to hold back the market upside. If 12.50 fails, then the 11.50-ish low may have to be tested once again.

We watched the green falling wedge, and positive divergence that bounced the VIX creating the February market sell off but the bulls recovered. This only served to set up the purple falling wedge and positive divergence that created the slight weakness lately. The ATR wanted another low, which occurred in March, but once that low was placed, the chart  does not need price to come back down again. That is the frustration the bears face. The signals are all systems go but the Fed, and now Japan, keep printing money to keep the markets elevated. The green lines over the last couple weeks show the stochastics and MACD wanting higher highs in the VIX moving forward. The chart in general, as well as the VIX weekly chart, remains constructive for the upside. Today's action was a surprise but with light volume, the jello can be pushed around the plate easier.

So tomorrow is a big day for markets. Watch the 13.57, 13.01 and 12.50 S/R levels tomorrow to gauge the markets. Bears need to break up through 13.57 at the opening bell and start the trek to 14.42 again. Bulls need to simply keep the VIX under 13.57 and even break through the lower support levels to create further bear pain. Watch the RSI and stochastics 50% levels for clues as well. Projection is a move higher in the VIX moving forward for the days and weeks ahead, in concert with the broad indexes selling off, even if volatility drops for the next day or few. Watch the levels listed to see who is winning the chess game as it unfolds. The VIX remains a beach ball held underwater by the Fed, the grip should slip at anytime. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.