Tuesday, April 9, 2013

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8 MA and 34 MA Cross Potential H&S Pattern

Here is a closer look at the H&S pattern shown on the daily chart this morning. The brown lines show the head at 1573, neck line at 1540, so the target is 1507 if the 1540 level fails. The SPX is placing the right shoulder now so the action today is very important. Of course, a move above 1573 would negate the H&S. The most important thing on the 30-minute chart is the 8 and 34 MA crosses. Typically, a cross should occur and remain in place a few days, then a cross occurs to the other side for a few days, and this pattern repeats. Not any more. The central banker intervention is causing the market distortions and break down in asset relationships lately. There are eleven 8/34 MA crosses over the last 18 days which is unprecedented. This behavior verifies the erratic and unstable condition of the markets currently.

 The 8 MA crossed above the 34 MA to signal bullish markets for the hours and days ahead.  The green lines for the indicators are all long and strong indicating momo for price and higher numbers desired today. The S&P futures are up three.  The 200 MA plays an important role as well as verified by the number of touches shown by the pink boxes. The SPX ran up through the 200 MA yesterday and a back kiss of this moving average at 1557-ish would be prudent. The sideways channel through 1540-1573 is in place on this chart for over one month, a 30-handle range. Thus, watch for the drama with the right shoulder of the H&S today. The stochastics are overbot so this will negatively diverge this morning. The chart wants additional upside and it will likely take thee to five candles for the bears to set the chart up for another roll over so with 30-minute candlesticks, this is about one to three hours time, taking the markets into and through lunch time today. The bulls have the upper hand. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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8 comments:

  1. AnonymousApril 9, 2013 at 9:54 AM

    Hey Arnie. Last we spoke, you mentioned that this retracement could be from 50% to over 100% and that it was too early to figure out where the retracement to land. Since 1557 was the 50% mark, do you have a better feel for what will happen going forward? Thanks.

    BK

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  2. ShaneApril 9, 2013 at 1:03 PM

    It's a quiet day so far. On the east coast the weather is nice, pushing 80 degrees in some places. The people who run the world have probably take the day off and are getting their yachts out of the yard for the first time.

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  3. AlgyrosApril 9, 2013 at 1:12 PM

    KS,

    With the SOX above 423.90, is the Bot on the verge of going long?

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    Replies
    1. Keystone SpeculatorApril 9, 2013 at 2:11 PM

      Yep, it was a lot of give and take today, wild action, but the SOX was rammed higher at lunch time creating the bull fuel.

      Delete
  4. WeaverApril 9, 2013 at 1:36 PM

    KS, could this be a bull trap forming? They'll try to take out the 2013 intraday high (1573.66) this afternoon and use that to slingshot towards the all-time SPX high. But couldn't we reverse strongly from here? The boat's very overloaded to one side......

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    Replies
    1. Keystone SpeculatorApril 9, 2013 at 2:13 PM

      Yep, it is a strong possibility. The semi's were really driven higher, however, now at 429, well above the 424 danger line. VIX is under 13 far away from 14.42. Bears need one of these to return in their favor.

      Delete
  5. ShaneApril 9, 2013 at 1:37 PM

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100627758

    I've followed Timmer for some time and I've always found him to be astute and generally right.

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    Replies
    1. Keystone SpeculatorApril 9, 2013 at 2:15 PM

      His thoughts are in sync with Keystone, however, the Fed and BOJ keep firing the money bazooka and traders keep ignoring any bad news.

      Delete

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