SPX Support, Resistance (S/R) and Moving Averages for Trading the Week of 4/29/13

SPX support, resistance, moving averages, and other important levels are provided below for trading the week of 4/29/13, moving into the new month of May on Wednesday. The EOM for April is Tuesday. Last week the SPX ran higher to test the all-time closing high at 1593.37 but could not punch up through.  The 1593 serves as a strong resistance ceiling now with greater importance so if the bulls punch through 1593, 1597 is next, then over the psychological 1600 then on to the 1620's. For Monday, starting at 1582, the bulls need to push through 1586 and price will test 1589 and likely punch up through, then price will perform the test of 1593 R.

The market bears receive a tiny feather in their caps since the 10 MA has crossed down through the 20 MA, the first sign that the moving average ribbon (10, 20, 50, 100, 150, 200 MA's) may be rolling over to the downside from the solidly bullish posture over the last couple months. The strongest support levels below that must be respected and monitored are 1563 and 1552-1553.  Price losing these levels leads to more bearishness in the markets. For Monday, the bears need to push under 1578 to create a downside acceleration to test the strong 1576 support. The 1576 S is key since the SPX will seek 1569, seven handles lower, if 1576 is lost. The 1568-1569 level will likely see action this week. The 20-day MA at 1568.21 is very important; bulls are always happy and in good shape when any stock or index is above its 20-day MA while bears are always happy when price is under the 20-day MA. The 1569 level is where April began and with two days of trading remaining in the month, and price now at 1582, only 13 handles above, a positive, or negative, month hangs in the balance.  Interestingly, Keystone's Monthly Jobs Report Market Indicator (reference the Other Signals page) says April should be a down month, thus, there may be some downside drama around the 1569 level for the first two days of the week finishing out April. The 1548-1550 support is important since it represents last week's low as well as the critical 50-day MA at 1549.97.

As mentioned above, 1563 is very strong support and is significantly negative for markets if lost. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 1562.21 is a very important level that signals bullish versus bearish markets. Thus, treat 1562-1563 with high respect since bad things will happen to the broad indexes if the SPX loses the 1562-1563 level. In summary, the key S/R levels that will tell the tale this week are 1593, 1586, 1576, 1568-1569, 1562-1563, 1552-1553 and 1548-1550.

·         1597 (4/11/13 All-Time Intraday High: 1597.35) (4/11/13 Intraday HOD for 2013: 1597.35)

·         1593 (4/11/13 All-Time Closing High: 1593.37) (4/11/13 Closing High for 2013: 1593.37) (Previous Week’s High: 1592.64)

·         1589

·         1586

·         1585.78 Friday HOD

·         1582.24 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

·         1579

·         1577.56 Friday LOD

·         1576 (10/11/07 Intraday High: 1576.09)

·         1569 (April Begins at 1569.18)

·         1568.21 (20-day MA)

·         1566.33 (10-day MA)

·         1565 (10/9/07 Market Top: 1565.15)

·         1564

·         1563

·         1562.21 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Turn Signal)

·         1561

·         1556

·         1553 (10/31/07 Top: 1552.76) (3/24/00 Top: 1552.87)

·         1552

·         1551

·         1549.97 (50-day MA)

·         1548 (Previous Week’s Low:  1548.19)

·         1546

·         1544

·         1539

·         1536

·         1531

·         1528 (3/24/00 Closing Top: 1527.46)

·         1525

·         1524 (12/11/07 Top: 1523.57)

·         1521

·         1520

·         1518

·         1516

·         1514

·         1513.79 (20-week MA)

·         1512

·         1509

·         1506.49 (100-day MA)

·         1505

·         1503

·         1500

·         1498 (12/26/07 Top: 1498.85)

·         1495

·         1489

·         1485

·         1481

·         1478.19 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

·         1476

·         1475 (9/14/12 Intraday HOD for 2012: 1474.51)

·         1472

·         1468

·         1466 (9/14/12 Closing High for 2012: 1465.77)

·         1465

·         1464.53 (10-month MA)

·         1461

·         1460

·         1457.87 (200-day MA)

·         1457

·         1456

·         1453

·         1447

·         1446

·         1444

·         1443.15 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)

·         1441

·         1440 (5/19/08 Intraday HOD for 2008: 1440.24)

·         1439.24 (50-week MA)

·         1438 (9/13/12 Fed Announces QE3 Infinity)

·         1435

·         1433

·         1431

·         1430 (12/12/12 Fed Announces QE4 Infinity and Beyond)

·         1429 (11/6/12 President Obama Election Top)

·         1427 (5/19/08 Closing High for 2008: 1426.63) (2013 Begins at 1426.19)

·         1424

·         1422

·         1419