Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers Week of 6/18/12

Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time.  The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.

Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:

·         Monday, 6/18/12:  Greece election results are known and markets react accordingly; the Sunday evening futures will tell the tale. Bank runs remain a major concern for Greece, Spain and Italy; the runs will signal the end game is here. Watch the European spreads closely; Spain-Germany, Italy-Germany and France-Germany especially to directly gauge the status and contagion of the European debt crisis. If the spreads increase, the turmoil in Europe is getting worse. If the spreads tighten, the tensions in Europe are diminishing. Watch the U.S.-Germany spread moving forward as well. The European news flow dictates global market direction. Congress is in session, for the most part, thru 8/3/12, so this is a market negative for the next six weeks. Watch for further China easing measures such as lowering triple R’s which will bounce markets. Watch confessional season into early July where companies will preannounce any changes to Q2 earnings projections.  If there are few, this will create market buoyancy, but if many companies begin lowering guidance, a la MCD, markets will react negatively. For the week after June OpEx, this week, markets are down about 90% of the time.  Markets tend to move opposite on Monday as compared to the OpEx Friday move; Friday was up so this tool says markets should be weak Monday morning. Markets tend to be weak moving towards the new moon (today and tomorrow). Keystone’s Eclipse Indicator targets the period from 4/28/12 (where the market sell-off began) thru 6/28/12 for a major market sell-off so the month of June needs to play out completely even though the move off the top has already occurred. Keystone’s next eclipse window for a major market sell-off will occur in the Fall from 10/20/12 thru 12/20/12. The U.S. Supreme Court rules on Obamacare any day over the next two weeks—healthcare stocks will react violently. Housing Market Index 10 AM. Earnings: HOKU, HOFT, PRGN.

·         Tuesday, 6/19/12:  Housing Starts 8:30 AM. FOMC Meeting begins.  JPM’s Dimon testifies before the House so the politico’s will kiss JPM’s shoes, just like last week’s hearing.  The politician’s asking the questions have received campaign contributions from JPM so they will not bite the hand that feeds them. New moon this evening.  Earnings: ADBE, BKS, FDX-shipping of packages forecasts the global economy, JBL, JEF, LZB, MITL, TOPS.

·         Wednesday, 6/20/12: First day of summer. Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM.  FOMC Rate Decision 12:30 PM, Fed Forecasts 2 PM and Chairman Bernanke’s Press Conference 2:15 PM.  Traders expect QE3 to be discussed or announced.  If so, a rip-roaring rally should result, if not, markets will sell off strongly—look for a market pivot point at 2 PM-ish. Earnings: BBBY, GR, RHT, SONC, SCS..

·         Thursday, 6/21/12: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. Flash PMI Manufacturing Index 9 AM. Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed, FHFA House Price Index and Leading Indicators 10 AM-look for a market pivot point. Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. 30-Year TIPS Auction 1 PM. Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM.  Earnings: CAG, KMX, ORCL, RAD.

·         Friday, 6/22/12:  No economic data today. Earnings: CCL, DRI-do folks have the disposable income to continue eating out?

·         Tuesday, 6/26/12: Consumer Confidence 10 AM-market pivot point.

·         Thursday, 6/28/12: Euro Summit. GDP.

·         Friday, 6/29/12: EOM. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM-market pivot point.

·         Monday, 7/2/12: ISM Mfg Index 10 AM-market pivot point, watch the energy markets.

·         Tuesday, 7/3//12: Markets Close Early at 1 PM due to the July 4^th Independence Day holiday.

·         Wednesday, 7/4/12: Markets are Closed in Observance of the July 4^th Independence Day holiday.

·         Friday, 7/6/12: Monthly Jobs Report 8:30 AM-the last three releases are a debacle starting with Good Friday, 4/6/12.

·         Wednesday, 7/11/12: FOMC Minutes 2 PM.

·         Friday, 7/13/12: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM-market pivot point.