Thursday, June 14, 2012

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart

The CPC was useful in showing the uber complacency (0.75 and lower) and complete lack of fear in the markets February-April which identified the market top.  When long traders do not have a care in the world and buy stocks without worry (red square), that is when you should worry, and as it unfolded, we watched the indexes roll over as forecasted. Now we are at the other side of the spectrum.

Once the CPC moves up and over 1.20, that signals that traders are becoming much more worried and fearful of the markets (green square). Thus, the CPC once again forecasts the contrarian view. Since traders are more fearful, the exact opposite occurs in markets since the markets continually strive to hurt the maximum amount of traders. The readings above 1.20 signal that a market rally is at the doorstep.  The green circles in mid and late May clearly identify recent market bottoms.  The CPC is at 1.28 ready to forecast another market bottom. Can the CPC spike higher which corresponds to the markets selling off further? Of course it can. But the large green circle shows that a broad market rally is near. If the rally does not occur directly, CPC readings of 1.3, 1.4 and 1.5 will provide great opportunities to go long. Remember, this tool is for the VST and ST trading. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

2 comments:

  1. ;) cpc looks good funny how we both dont trust the upside much at this point..

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  2. Hello MCAP, well, Keybot is long so the bulk of the portfolio remains long. That can change, however, the RTH 41.10 and SPX 1310.50 will tell the story after the bell. Markets do have the feel that many traders are positioning bearishly these days so you know what that means. Maybe pop today and fade tomorrow to continue the week long trend of alternating days of up and down, traveling sideways overall into the Greece elections.

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