Monday, June 4, 2012

European Bond Yield Summary 6/4/12

10-Year Yields:
Greece 30.69%
Portugal 11.95%
Hungary 8.95%
Spain 6.51%
Italy 5.80%
Belgium 2.84%
France 2.31%

Austria 2.03%
Netherlands 1.56%
U.K. 1.53%
U.S. 1.49%
Finland 1.47%
Germany 1.19%

Austrailia 2.77%
Japan 0.82%

The historic moves in the bond and note markets over the last couple weeks continues. Greece remains a mess. Portugal says their reform program is on track and, along with ECB support, manages to move a smidge under 12% away from the 12.5% danger level. Spain remains stubbornly above 6.5% signaling continued turmoil and trouble in Europe. Italy creeps upwards towards 6%. Interestingly, Austria is near dropping under 2%. Finland yield is now under the U.K. and U.S. yield. Germany is at an epic 1.19% and as European money searches for safety, other perceived safer haven countries are receiving inflows such as Finland, the Netherlands and Austria. The Austrailia 10-year yield has dropped from over 4% a couple months ago to under 3% now. Brazil and China growth continues to slow.

The Spain-Germany spread is 532 and the all-important France-Germany spread is 112. Watch the change in these spreads closely moving forward. The Spain 10-year yield and 30-year yield is 6.51% and 6.63%, respectively, only 12 basis points from inversion. Germany continues to say nein to Eurobonds. George Soros says that Europe has less than three months to solve the debt crisis.

Asian and European equity markets are weak to start the week responding to the U.S. weakness on Friday. Spain, the IBEX, however, is higher with the CAC flat. Some European banks are catching a bid probably anticipating ECB quantitative easing on tap. U.K. markets are closed thru tomorrow for the Queen's Jubilee. This is creating lower volumes in the currency markets. The U.S. futures markets are on the red side but slowly paring losses as time moves along. The S&P's are down about three points currently projecting a slightly lower start on tap.

3 comments:

  1. Hi Keystone,

    First of all nice blog and thanks for sharing!!
    I see that keybot is short spx from 1382 and i was wondering when keybot will take profit from that trade? Do you have some specific target?

    Thanks,
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello Andy, nope, Keybot has a mind all its own. That is the idea behind using a trading algorithm, it removes emotion from trading. Keybot the Quant only sees 1's and 0's so the only answer is it will flip long--when it does.

      Keybot is designed to take a smoother path thru the trading year so by nature it will not catch the exact tops or exact bottoms. What you can closely watch is the SPX 12-month moving average and also the NYA 40-week MA since if one of these turn bullish again that will position Keybot close to flipping long, if both turn back to bullish then Keybot will probably go long. Other than that, just have to take things day to day and see what happens. Keybot's site is updated daily so a heads-up can be provided as the markets move along.

      Delete
    2. Ok, thanks for getting back to me!
      Andy

      Delete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.