Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers Week of 6/11/12

Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time.  The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.

Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:

·         Monday, 6/11/12:  Spain is requesting a 125 bilion euro bailout. The focus this week by Euro leaders is how to contain Spain in front of the Greece elections.  Equity markets may be range bound this week with strong moves each way due to high volatility but overall moving sideways until the outcome of the Greece elections is known on Sunday.  Bank runs remain a major concern for Greece, Spain and now Italy as well.  Watch the European spreads closely. If the spreads increase, the turmoil in Europe is getting worse. If the spreads tighten, this shows the tensions in Europe are diminishing. Greece elections are Sunday—a Superbowl event for this ongoing European debt drama. The European news flow dictates global market direction. Congress is in session, for the most part, thru 8/3/12, so this is a market negative for the next two months. Watch for the reaction to China economic news released on the weekend. Now that Q1 earnings season is in the rear view mirror, watch confessional season, mid to late June, where companies will preannounce any changes to Q2 earnings projections; MCD laid an egg on Friday.  If there are few, this will create market buoyancy, but if many companies begin lowering guidance moving forward, markets will react negativity. For OpEx weeks, Monday is typically an up day for markets.  AAPL will be in the news with the Worldwide Developers’ Conference. Earnings: ENZ, FNSR, JDAS.

·         Tuesday, 6/12/12:   Foe OpEx weeks, markets typically make a bullish move from a Tuesday low into Wednesday. Today is a Major Bradley Turn Date—expect a market trend change at any time. Earnings: KORS.

·         Wednesday, 6/13/12: Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM. PPI (Producer Price Index) and Retail Sales 8:30 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. JPM’s Dimon testifies concerning the firm’s trading debacle. 10-Year Note Auction 1 PM.

·         Thursday, 6/14/12: BOJ meeting begins. CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. 30-Year Bond Auction 1 PM. Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM.  Earnings: CPST, KR, PRGN, PIR, SFD, WGO.

·         Friday, 6/15/12:  BOJ meeting decision. OpEx. Industrial Production 9:15 AM.  Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM. Remember that next week the markets are typically down about 90% of the time. Since it is OpEx Friday, markets tend to move opposite on Monday as compared to the way they move into the close today. Traders must also position ahead of the Greece elections.

·         Sunday, 6/17/12: Greece elections. The U.S. Supreme Court rules on Obamacare any day over the next two weeks—healthcare stocks will react violently. Markets tend to be negative into the new moon.

·         Tuesday,6/19/12: Housing Starts 8:30 AM. FOMC Meeting begins. New Moon.

·         Wednesday,6/20/12: FOMC Rate Decision and Press Conference-will QE3 be announced if it has not occurred already? Equities will experience a rip-roaring rally once additional stimulus programs are announced by Chairman Bernanke.

·         Tuesday, 6/26/12: Consumer Confidence 10 AM.

·         Thursday, 6/28/12: Euro Summit. GDP.

·         Friday, 6/29/12: EOM. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM.