Thursday, June 7, 2012

DIS Walt Disney Daily Chart Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

The sun is setting on the Mouse House.  This is one of the favorite divvy plays like VZ, T, XOM, MCD, IBM and others. The problem is that the divvy stock bubble is very large now and please refrain from poking your finger at the bubble since surely it will rupture at any time. Note the three blue squares showing classic distribution of stock to Ma and Pa sucka. Every trade needs a bag holder and with the stellar performance of Goofy, Pluto and the Gang, over recent months, the professionals need some suckers to come in to take stock off their hands. This is why television and print media is pumping the divvy stocks now, the smart money needs to shaft Ma and Pa with stocks like DIS right before they fail. The funny part (funny sad not funny happy) is that after the Faceplant (FB) debacle, where novice traders entered the markets only to have their head handed to them, many of these traders have flocked into utilities and divvy stocks for perceived safety. What suckers, but every market needs a chump. The volume squares show how a large up day was followed by an even larger volume down day the next day; this is a clear sign of distribution where the big boys are sneaking out the back door and luckily, Ma and Pa, after hearing a pundit tell them to run out and buy DIS, are flocking to the name with their bag wide open, ready to be completely wiped out in the markets.

The red rising wedge and negative divergence, the weekly chart is negatively diverged as well, says a smack down will occur at any time.  The blue rectangle in the wedge shows the uber high volume day that was tested mid-May where the volume could not even match half of the early May volume, bearish. The only reason price has floated upwards is because the media continues to tell the sucka's to run out and buy it.  Keystone started shorting DIS today. Projection is for a spank down to occur at any time. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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4 comments:

  1. AnonymousJune 7, 2012 at 11:13 PM

    KS, speaking of divvy plays, what about the mREITS (AGNC, NLY, CYS, IVR, etc.)? Are they also negatively diverged? Lots of retired folks own those for their ridiculous divvy payouts? Take care now.

    Steve

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    1. Keystone SpeculatorJune 8, 2012 at 5:46 AM

      Hello Steve, those charts are nasty, AGNC, NLY, CYS negatively diverged on daily and weekly charts, they will meet the Maker. IVR not much better but at least it may eek out some sideways moving forward. Keystone continues to like SRS as a play (inverse real estate ETF). It comes down to whether or not you believe that the housing sector has recovered. Over 90% of the pundits tell you nowadays that housing and real estate has bottomed and is headed back up. Keystone disagrees, more pain should lie ahead for the real estate sector and house prices should take another leg down. Probably a couple more years are needed to bottom the housing sector. Also of interest is the real estate agents and builders, remember that negativity is not in their vocabulary, rela estate players are some of the most positive and bullish folks you will ever see. They can only sell houses if they keep pumping the good side. Real estate agents will tell stories that would make Baghdad Bob blush.

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  2. AnonymousJune 8, 2012 at 2:13 AM

    Hi KS, today Bernanke sends a message "no QE", market were able to push higher instead of sell off, I am a bit confused. With the 6/17 Greek election, Spain's banking sector, I feel the market is very bearish in the coming days, what make you long TNA so early? Thanks! kf

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    1. Keystone SpeculatorJune 8, 2012 at 5:58 AM

      Hello KF, markets actually ended the day flat. The euphoria early in the session was on the happy euro talk and China stimulus, as well as Yellen, Bernanke's #2, basically saying QE is on the way. The skunk at the garden party was Helicoter Ben himself, you can see the market pivot at 10 AM EST, since he avoided mentioning QE3 and prefers to see the helicopters of cash (QE) stay on the ground for a bit. This is all posturing, QE3 is coming, they are likely coordinating things behind the scenes right now. Spain bailout may come this weekend. Monday is the date for the Spanish bank audits to be released, this is very important.

      The high VIX will continue to create wild market action here forward, large 200 point Dow up days followed by equally large 200 point down days, over and over. So you need a strong constitution to trade the VST time frame. Many of Keystone's trades presented on this site are the very short term variety in the minute, hourly, day or two time frames, such as TNA, so do not read a lot in to the picks. That can easily be exited today and Keystone may bring back on TZA.

      Remember, for the best current read on the markets, ignoring day-trading and very short term movements, Keybot the Quant at the left margin is the best guide. Markets are very treacherous right now. Watch RTH 41 and SPX 1313 closely this morning (Friday) since a breach of these two levels and Keybot will likely join the bear side again today.

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