Monday, September 10, 2012

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8 MA and 34 MA Cross Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

Keystone's fave chart to monitor; the SPX 30-minute with 8 and 34 MA cross. We have watched the drama placing the bears in charge, then the bulls, then the bears, and then, last Wednesday, the all-clear occurred for continued market upside.  The 8 and 34 MA cross tells you the market direction for the hours and days ahead. Right now the 8 is above the 34 MA so the bulls are in charge of the markets.  Note the red rising wedge, overbot conditions and universal negative divergence across all the indicators that creates todays weakness. Now that price is under the 8 MA, this will pull the 8 MA down further. Watch this chart the rest of the day, the current candle is real-time, at lunch time Monday.  The stochastics fell under the 50% level which is bearish, watch to see if the RSI does, or not. If the 8 falls under the 34 MA, the market bears got game, if not, the bulls continue to rule, for the hours and days ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/10/12 at 3:49 PM:  Failure at 3:45 PM EST; the 8 MA  just pierced the 34 MA to the downside.  Watch to see if it holds into the close, if so, the market bears are in control for the hours and days ahead.

Note Added 9/10/12 at 4:03 PM:  The 8 MA holds below the 34 MA, by only a few pennies but it is under nonetheless, thus, the bears rule moving forward, unless, the bulls can bounce the markets vertically at tomorrow's open to reverse this downside momo moving forward. SPX came down to test 1429, not quite to 1427 support, but a downside acceleration nonetheless occurred once 1431.50 collapsed in the final one-half hour of trading.
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11 comments:

  1. MCAPSeptember 10, 2012 at 1:37 PM

    its a slow slow grind then in an instant if just off's 3 points of so I'm hanging in short ES waiting this out... The drop could just as easily come tonight often is the case...

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  2. ZigSeptember 10, 2012 at 2:28 PM

    We are overcooked a bit...nothing wrong with sitting around...I'm just waiting for either a touch higher to short or later in the week ES 1420 to go long...One final push up is in the cards.

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  3. MCAPSeptember 10, 2012 at 3:05 PM

    Cooked is right been trading oil all day that one will get you shaking in your chair.

    ReplyDelete
  4. MCAPSeptember 10, 2012 at 3:26 PM

    I can't trade ERY for the life of me....

    ReplyDelete
  5. Keystone SpeculatorSeptember 10, 2012 at 3:35 PM

    Watch to see if the SPX can punch below today's lower limit at 1431.50, or not. The 8 MA is almost donw thru the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart. SOX is 395 drifting lower. VIX had an uber complacent 13 handle today, now a 15 handle.

    On ERY, beautiful positive divergence on the daily, weekly as well. It may stutter step into Bernanke but it is set up to launch higher in concert with the broad market lower. ERY may print a hammer candlestick today indicating a potential trend change on tap. It looks good but may require a few days more of patience.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Keystone SpeculatorSeptember 10, 2012 at 3:48 PM

    SPX failure at 1431.50. Here's the 8 and 34 MA printing the exact same number...........and failure at 3:45 PM EST, the 8 MA just pierced the 34 MA to the downside. Watch to see if it holds into the close, if so, the market bears are in control for the hours and days ahead.

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  7. MCAPSeptember 10, 2012 at 3:48 PM

    ERY is divergence monster I need a slice of blueberry pie.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Keystone SpeculatorSeptember 10, 2012 at 3:52 PM

    VIX now iwth a 16 handle, from a 13 handle to 16 handle in one day. Blueberry sounds great MCAP, although Keystone has never met a pie he does not like.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MCAPSeptember 10, 2012 at 4:44 PM

      once we lose 1428 tomorrow were are game on.

      Delete
  9. AnonymousSeptember 10, 2012 at 4:47 PM

    KS so right on with ERY, the flush of TZA as well to the 14.63 was a clear sign of reversal, and roasting the burned ends. ERY is poised I'd say by next week to trend back up and hopefully near 9s again. Very strange hold though on the RUT and TNA TZA, before TNA began to fall off. It was almost like someone didn't want to give in on it. They both held very strangely near 330 or so. everyones chomping at the bit for the bear etfs but I think we get higher head fakes before cash in time on the bears.

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  10. MCAPSeptember 11, 2012 at 7:45 AM

    The problem with these triple leverage ETN's more so ERY is oil is beast as it is and its poised to run one way of the other. Now if oil trades up past 98 or so in the future it should blow off top around 101 - 104. That would leave the ERY somewhere in the 6 handle which would be an absolutely great entry for me. I need thousands of shares at the right price to make this work... its hard when you get on and starts you way for a dime and it reverses on you because if it was a real company you could just write calls on it and bingo you back in the money soon. It takes a lot call writing to get double digit draw down back.

    ReplyDelete

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