Coupling the above with the volatility fear gauge shows the VIX with a 14 handle also verifying the uber complacency by traders currently. Afterall, "don't fight the Fed" is the mantra and this tried and true axiom has rang true for decades, but, the Fed aid typically occurs when markets are at or over the falls, not like now when markets are extremely elevated. Hang on to your hat, the CPC says this is a significant market top. Perform serious soul searching for every long position held since a few days from now it may be too late. Projection is that a significant market top is now in place or finishing up this week and will be followed by substantial market downside beginning at any time. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
I have never seen so many RSI's extended beyond 70 and higher.Unless RSI's will reach 90 and above, most stock are screaming for profit taking. i think one has to be patient, this week it will not happen but in a month we will be looking at a turn.
ReplyDeleteCould be. Tops take time, especially major tops. I'd say 2 weeks from now. Not saying SPX will be at a 1000 by then, probably closer to mid to high 1300s IMHO
DeleteAs usual, KS is on top of it and ahead of the curve. Quickly chiming in from far and away: glad I sold my SSO's at $61 on Friday. I don't see much more gains going forward, so glad to have taken the profit: thanks Draghi! Profit is profit! I Will check the markets Thursday morning when I get back and see if it is appropriate to scale into shorts (SDS) heavily or not. But may try to peak in here and there!
ReplyDeleteKeep up the good work guys!!
a day or few more I've been skewed up for the following as per Jackson Hole but didn't initiate anything trades with the exception of ERY which I start at 8.26 and 8.86 Thursday and Friday respectively. I'm considering writing some Oct 8 calls on that for .55 put maybe I should error on the side of caution and sell the 9 dollar call...
ReplyDeleteMy preferred way to trade the 3x short darlings is scaling because just when you think they can't go any lower there is another 5% drop 50, 100, 500, 1000, 5000 and up - upon capitulation.
Hit List:
EUO, UUP, ERY, TZA, DUST, TMF
AMZN, SVXY and any of the momo whores should be good short fare.
And my favorite shorts BAC and C
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ReplyDeleteHello all, the market drama continues, markets always appear the most bullish and celebratory right before they turn. The bulls needed a tiny smidge of green in futures to continue the upside but at this writing at 7 AM EST, U.S. futures are red and have been red overnight. This is going to be an interesting week of trading ahead.
ReplyDeleteFor banks, monitor XLF as your main gauge. it is at 15.68 coming up for a matching high compared to March and looking like negative divergence will be favored. Banks are happy on all this stimulus stuff so they have momo right now, they may need a few days to burn off this momo and get past Bernanke.