Monday, September 10, 2012

SPX Daily Chart Upward-Sloping Channel Negative Divergence

Daily chart shows a nice tight upward-sloping channel in place from May. Price is now a hair away from touching the top rail.  The red lines show the strong negative divergence in place requiring a spank down in price.  The pesky RSI, however, would like to see another matching high afer a pull back occurs.  This behavior hints of some potential market sideways action into the German vote and Bernanke decision mid to late week. A stutter step move of down, then up, then down, rolling over, would be the chart's preferred direction forward.

Of great interest is when Draghi, head of the ECB, announced that he would support the euro doing 'whatever it takes', on 7/26/12. Note the large market rally and volume in late July on Draghi's promise.  Fast forward to last week, the green boxes show last Thursday and Friday, when Draghi delivered on those promises. SPX price is higher, but volume is lower, that is not a sign of a strong substantial market rally. Further, on Friday, note the higher high in price again, but the volume drops lower again. Projection is that markets are topping this week and roll over would be expected moving forward. The 20-day MA at 1411 is a very important support level moving forward.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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