Remember the top call in the Fall? It was easy with the neggie d and also with the over the top bullishness in play back then. But, if you recall, the MACD was still going up when price peaked. The other chart indicators were all negatively diverged. This told you that bitcoin would receive a spankdown, on the monthly, and weekly, bases, but price will likely want to come up again for one more matching high, on the monthly basis, and when that occurs, the long-term top is in for bitcoin (if the MACD goes neggie d).
LT means weeks, months, perhaps a year or few, so it is bigtime. Since the chart is uninspiring, bitcoin could also roll over at anytime before it makes it back up to the top. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up, so 48K opens the door to 52K. The 58K would open the door to 62K which matches the record highs.
Bitcoin is at 47616 as this is typed. The chart is at 47575. If price closes above 47580, that opens the door to 47620. A breach of 47800 likely points the way to 48200.
The first top last year is at 58K-ish and the last top in the Fall is at 62K-ish ignoring the spikes. The MACD would likely be satisfied to see NYXBT make it back to 58K. The 58K would probably be good enough for government work to say a matching price high as occurred. Then you can look at the indicators to see if all are neggie d including the MACD, and if so, the LT top is in for bitcoin perhaps anytime now through August.
It will be interesting because bitcoin will be at a triple top and many traders will say triple tops don't exist (price blows up through the prior highs and makes big new highs). Keystone has mentioned often that it is a 50-50 proposition. About as many triple tops will hold as ones that do not with price catapulting higher.
Bitcoin will be fun to watch over the coming weeks. Keystone does not own any bitcoin and does not have any long or shorts in the derivatives right now. Taking a look at GBTC, it is the same dealio as the chart above. Watch bitcoin above and the GBTC chart going forward. Keystone places GBTC on the short list for a potential play on the short side a few weeks from now.
Bitcoin bulls will likely be happy for a few weeks and get all bulled-up again setting up the likely top that is coming on the monthly chart locking in LT pain afterwards. Watch the thin dark red lines in the right margin. When bitcoin price touches the top line, look at the indicators, if all are below their dark red lines, that is neggie d, and the LT top will be in for bitcoin. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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