NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Bull/Bear Battle at 40-Wk MA at 16687 for Cyclical Market Control

This week is a knock-down drag-out battle between bulls (longs) and bears (shorts) for cyclical stock market control (weeks, months and perhaps a couple years ahead).

The long-term metrics that determine a cyclical bull versus bear are the SPX 12-month MA now at 4433 and the NYA 40-wk MA cross at 16687. The SPX catapults to 4520 a big win for bulls forecasting that the cyclical bull market will continue. NYA was the straggler happy in the cyclical bear market territory below the 40-wk until yesterday.

The NYA jumps to 16702 above the 40-wk MA at 16687 back in a cyclical bull market. The bulls throw confetti as they drink Fed wine and ECB champagne. Interestingly, the NYA tested the 16687 resistance 4 times over the last 2 days and it looked hopeless until the final few minutes of trading yesterday afternoon. The fifth time is the charm. 

But the struggle to retake the 40-wek MA is notable. A strong stock market will typically blow up through the 40 like a hot knife through butter signaling bullish joy ahead. The NYA is sluggish. It is hoisted higher like playmates trying to lift and push their fat buddy over Mr Wilson's fence.

If the bears are going to reverse the NYA, that has to happen today or Monday. Otherwise, the bulls win big and several days, or a few weeks of upside for stocks will be in order.

However, if the NYA fails through the 40-wk MA at 16687 over the next couple days, that spells serious trouble ahead. Next watch the SPX 10-mth MA at 4484-ish and then the SPX 12-mth MA at 4433-ish, the cliff-edge, where stock market carnage will occur there forward. The SPX is about 90 points above the cliff-edge right now.

Watch NYA 16687 today since it tells you everything you need to know about the US stock market going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:33 AM EST: The NYA pops to 16723. The high for the week is 16769 so keep an eye on that resistance number. The bulls are already celebrating and looking forward to a weekend of fun in Party Town. Woo-hoo. Wheee. Pass the Fed wine this way.

Note Added 9:43 AM EST: While the bulls were loading the keg into the backseat of the SUV, the NYA slips to 16707. VIX 21.89. SPX 4526. Bulls say, "What, Me Worry?".

Note Added 10:24 AM EST: Wheee. Whooopie. The bulls are riding down the highway ready to party the night away. NYA 16761. VIX drops to 20.90. SPX pops to 4540. The last sliver of hope for  bears is to hold the high for the week at 16769. The NYA shot up near here to let you know that it going to try and take out the week's high and prove that the bulls rule going forward. Their first try is only 8 points away. The bulls regroup and will try again.