VIX Volatility Daily Chart

The stock market carnage will not begin until the VIX climbs above the 200-day MA now at 15.21. Interestingly, Keybot the Quant identifies the 15.11 level as a key bull-bear line in the sand for the stock market. The green circles show stock market bullish joy and positivity while the red circles show bearish sorrow and worry.

Thus, the stock market direction story is told at VIX 15.11-15.21. The bulls are okay going forward as long as the VIX remains sub 15.11. The bears will create market mayhem if the VIX moves above 15.21. Stocks will be falling like rocks. The VIX is at 12.84 with a HOD today at 13.68. Watch to see if price can take out this high, or not, today. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:11 PM EST: SPX 3115. VIX 12.84.

Note Added 1:23 PM EST: The stock market is falling apart on news that the US-China trade deal hits a snag. The SPX is down 26 points, -0.8%, to 3094. The Dow collapses 240 points, -0.9%, to 27694. COMPQ -1.0%. NDX -1.2%. RUT -0.8%. The VIX is 13.97 and was above 14 minutes ago. Copper -0.4%. The bearish shorts on volatility are at record levels never seen in history (expecting stocks to go up forever). That's funny. In other words, the low VIX behavior and ongoing uber low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios verify the rampant complacency and fearlessness in markets when typically a significant top occurs.

Note Added 3:38 PM EST:  There is about 20 minutes remaining in the trading day with the SPX down 17 points, -0.5%, to 3103. LOD 3091. 20-day MA 3075. The Dow loses 148 points, -0.5%, to 27786. VIX 13.17. Copper -0.4%.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/21/19, at 5:15 AM EST: The SPX finishes hump day down 12 points, -0.4%, to 3108. The Dow loses 112 points, -0.4%, to 27821. The bulls fight back during the day yesterday since copper and commodities are holding in the bull camp as well as volatility. The Sondland testimony is damaging to President Trump but markets do not care. The Rorschach impeachment test continues with the democrats and republicans seeing things along party lines. Markets did react negatively to the news that the trade deal hits a snag. Overnight, however, the communist head negotiator Liu says he is "cautiously optimistic" so that brought S&P futures back from about -14 to -8 overnight. Copper -0.9%. As this message is typed, China's Liu now invites the US negotiating team to China for more talks. The bulls celebrate the trade deal hype like Pavlov's dog celebrates a biscuit and begin tripping over each other buying the long side. S&P futures are up +3. Dow futures +25. Nazzy +6. Russell +3. VIX 13.03.  Teflon Don has appeared to weather the Sondland and impeachment storm, for now. Most Americans are likely resigned to the fact that all the politicians are corrupt. Copper -0.8%. Interesting. Copper does not yet recover like the futures do on the happy trade deal talk.