SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; S&P 500 Prints New All-Time High at 3124.17 and New All-Time Closing High at 3122.03; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Upward-Sloping Channel

The SPX daily chart quickly set up negatively after the Friday upside orgy. The chart indicators on the S&P 500 daily chart are all in negative divergence. Conditions are overbot agreeable to a pullback. A nasty rising wedge is ready to create havoc. Price has tagged the upper band so the middle band and perhaps lower band are on tap. Price is extended above its moving averages needing a mean reversion lower. All these parameters are bearish calling for a top and look at that; the 2-hour chart above has all the same bearish behavior going on as the SPX daily chart.

You know a significant top is likely at hand because of the uber low put/call ratios telling you that market complacency is completely out of hand. Traders are drunk as skunks guzzling Fed champagne and BOJ sake and then getting sauced on PBOC rice wine this morning buying stocks with reckless abandon. One drunk, er trader, said, with slurred speech, "Juussst buy anythin' (spitum) everythin' goes up." Have another drink, buddy.

Since a market top is at hand, and the daily chart is in neggie d, it is good practice to look at the 2-hour chart to hone in on where the top is at and as described above, its here, its now.

The positive green cross for the Aroon occurred on 10/9/19, so about 5 weeks ago, and it has been nothing but wine and roses ever since. Watch for the negative Aroon cross in the days ahead (red circle).

Note the brown ascending wedge that played out when price kept bumping its head up against the 3K ceiling. The SPX eventually broke out higher so 50 points on that vertical side added to the 3100 targets 3150. However, that is cheesy price action in early November so the vertical side of the ascending triangle is more in that 11/6/19 time frame at about 35 points thus, 3135 would be the upside target for the triangle and the highest number ever printed in history by the S&P 500 occurs hours ago at 3124.17. The all-time closing high also occurs today, Monday, 11/18/19, at 3122.03.

The SPX is set to drop right now in this hourly and the daily time frame. The only thing that can save the day is happy US-China trade deal news or more dovishness from central banks. If these two things do not occur over the next day, the rising wedge may spank price significantly lower. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 3102 and lower band at 3077 are on the table for starters.

Price needs to come down and back test the 3100 level since it was key resistance for a long time before it became support. A failure out of the blue upward-sloping channel at 3105-ish would be bearish. That 3100-3105 area is key since it also where the middle band is at. Price may be drawn to here like a magnet. If this support area fails, then the lower band at 3077 is likely the next stop.

The bears will growl. Let's see what they got. Will it be a blood-thirsty gnashing and snarling of downside carnage or a baby whimper of only modest losses with anxious dip-buyers standing ready? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:32 PM EST: S&P futures are down -5. Dow futures -39. Nazzy futures -13. Copper -0.1%. 10-year yield 1.80%. Gold 1473. Silver 17.03. Hong Kong burns while Chinese Dictator Xi plays his fiddle. Japan and South Korean stock indexes are down from -0.4% to -0.9%.

Note Added 9:12 PM EST: S&P futures are dead flat. Dow +3. Nazzy +5. Copper +0.1%. Oil -0.3%. Gold 1470. Silver 17.01. 10-year yield 1.81%. Asian indexes are mixed on each side of the flat line. As Hong Kong burns, the Hang Seng Index rallies +0.8%. Hong Kong Executive Carrie Lam, the communist puppet that started the unrest that destroyed the city, is speaking, spewing more of her nonsense. Lam sold her soul for power and fame but now lives a daily nightmare. Investors are sniffing out a resolution to the Hong Kong drama. The mainland commie government will probably crush the uprising just like the Umbrella Revolution was crushed so speculators are nibbling on Hong Kong stocks sending the HSI higher. Lam is a talking idiot.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 11/19/19, at 5:35 AM EST: East Coast traders rise from slumber to see S&P futures up +10. Dictator Xi took a page out of King Donny's playbook with China announcing overnight that the trade talks are going along swimmingly. Both leaders have a vested interest in keeping their stock markets elevated. Copper jumps higher so futures move higher. Copper gains +0.5% so each +0.1% pop in copper is creating a couple S&P points. The Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long the market but is currently champing at the bit to go short. If the SPX moves below 3112, Keybot will likely flip short. The stock market bulls need copper futures to rally +0.8% to prove that they can take the stock market higher. That is why they are goosing copper with happy trade talk trying to get the red metal, and futures and stock markets, to keep moving higher. If copper cannot rally the +0.8% today, and it rolls over to the downside, it will take the stock market with it. For now, as usual, the bulls are drinking Fed whiskey, ECB champagne, BOJ sake and PBOC rice wine astonished and amazed at their good fortune, feeling blessed that they are living in an age where stock markets run perpetually higher without any worry of downside. As Irving Fisher said in 1929, "We have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." Nine days later the biggest crash in the history of the stock market began. Watch copper. Housing Starts drop within 3 hours. The Keybot the Quant algo identified the start of a housing recession on 7/17/19 and this is expected to continue. The Starts data is of super critical importance and would be expected to be weak to verify a recession trend ahead but the numbers will tell the story. The Monthly Jobs Report and Housing Starts are the two most important data points each month. Also, sentiment gauges such as the University of Michigan Sentiment and Consumer Confidence are very important. All the other economic data does not have as much an impact on broad stock market direction.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 11/19/19, at 6:02 AM EST: S&P +9. Copper +0.5%. Oil -1.0%. VIX 12.27. 10-year yield 1.82%. Hello. HD beats on earnings but lays an egg with revenue and forward guidance. Home Depot is slapped in the face with a 2x4 (stick of lumber). HD crashes 18 points, -7.5%, to 220.90. Whoa, doggie. There were lots of bulls in that stock looking for perpetual upside. Money managers have Aunt Martha's and Uncle Johnny's money in HD telling them it is a guaranteed upside investment. Well, they lost -8% of their dough this morning. HD is a Dow Jones Industrial so the Dow futures take a tumble albeit still up +42. Use a 7 multiplier to gauge the impact of Home Depot on the Dow index. Thus, an 18 point haircut in HD will shave 126 points off the Dow. HD is jumping around in the pre-market now down 13 points so that would create about 90 points of downside in the Dow today.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 11/19/19, at 6:47 AM EST: S&P +8. Dow +56. Nasdaq +37. Russell +6. Copper +0.5%. Oil -0.9%. Gold 1468. Silver 17.08. VIX 12.29. 10-year yield 1.81%. HD crashes 13 points, -5.4%, to 226.00 which will create about 90 negative points in the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJI; DJIA; INDU) that is at all-time highs above 28K.