SPX S&P500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

Once you know a top is at hand as per the uber low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios, it is time to monitor the hourly and daily charts to see where this top is at. The SPX 2-hour chart above shows the red rising wedge which is a bearish pattern and the collapses from such wedges can be quite dramatic. The red lines show universal negative divergence across all indicators sans the MACD.

The MACD line squeezes out a higher high than 3 weeks ago so there is a tiny bit of momentum juice there. This may require a couple candlesticks to allow price to jog up and down to provide time for the MACD to go neggie d. This equates to 2 to 4 hours of trading time. Thus, the stock market top may occur today between 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST, but, let's just call it anytime today. The top is in for the stock market in this 2-hour time frame when the MACD goes neggie d.

The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The upper standard deviation band is violated so the middle band at 3050, and rising, is on the table.

S&P futures are up +8 with the VIX at 12.96 about 45 minutes in front of the opening bell for the US Tuesday trading session. Both futures/stocks and volatility are higher this week so one of them is wrong; perhaps we find out which today.

The SPX daily chart was previously posted and it shows neggie d for the multi-month period but long and strong for the indicators in this few-day momentum rally due to happy trade talk and an accomodative Fed. The daily chart may want to see a couple more days of stutter-stepping before the top is in but the neggie d on the daily chart also says the top can occur anytime and the downside can begin in earnest. Thus, this projected top in the stock market today may prove significant and lasting and is the top for the short-term.

Everybody and his brother expects stocks to rally into the end of the year. Everybody. The party is in full gear on one side of the boat. The band is playing, "Happy Days Are Here Again" and Chairman Powell just showed up with more Fed booze. Whoopie! Whheeee! Traders celebrate the record stock market highs with euphoric cheers and optimism. Aunt Edna throws down her walker and performs cartwheels across the front lawn celebrating the new highs in her 401k. Everyone agrees that the party will never end since the central banks will always print money. Traders cheer the crony capitalism system.

Today is critical. Stay alert for the potential stock market top. For the daytraders, any intraday, TICK's above 1000 can be shorted going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:23 AM EST: S&P futures +6. VIX 13.07. The stage is set for another epic stock market day only perhaps it is time for the bears to growl? Time will tell. More new all-time record highs may be on the way at the opening bell in a few minutes. The uber low put/call ratios, the Sword of Damocles, signaling rampant complacency, hangs over the stock market's head.

Note Added 10:53 AM EST: The S&P 500 pops higher out of the starting gate and then promptly falls on its sword tumbling lower. The SPX is down 5 points, -0.2%, to 3072 right now. The MACD line looks good for neggie d on the 2-hour so this should be the top. Now we see how much oomph the rampant complacency has to the downside. President Trump is frantically tweeting happy trade talk messages about soybeans hoping to goose the stock market higher. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is in the conference room at the Eccles Building practicing his next dovish speech. Fed members are always ready to save and pump stocks higher to protect America's wealthy class.

Note Added 11:21 AM EST: The SPX is flat at 3078. VIX 12.88. The trading floor is like a wax museum. Everyone is standing around, and you recognize all the faces, but no one is doing anything. Traders are likely waiting to see if any positive US-China trade deal news hits the tape to save the day. If not, the sogginess will become more soggy.