Keystone's Midday Market Action 11/6/12; Presidential Election Day

INTC is down but the semiconductors, SOX, jump at the open, up thru 378.60, so the bulls are favored. SOX is now printing 380.75.  RTH is 44.71 well above 44.45 so the bulls have this feather in their caps as well.  UTIL is at 463.27 continuing the weakness. Keystone will keep harpin' on the importance of this utility sector weakness but there is an echo and it only serves as a voice in the wilderness, since markets are ignoring this uber bearish signal. The SPX jumped at the open, due to the semi's, to touch the 1420 handle, so a leap to the HOD at 1423.55 (testing the strong 1424 R) occurs. The VIX is under 18 but remains elevated forecasting larger market point swings ahead. AAPL is up a couple bucks testing the 200-day MA at 590 from the underside. The SPX is up 0.42% but the COMPQ is up only 0.18%, a shift from yesterday's action. Tech is not leading the upside today so the bulls likely do not have much oomph and markets should peter out. Here's the SPX coming up for another look at 1424 R. The euro is 1.2810. The 10-year yield is 1.70%. Today's action will likely mimic yesterday's; flatness until the confirmed leader of the United States emerges. The voter turn-out is huge across the U.S. with long lines; this may favor Romney.  If you are standing in a line hoping to vote, make sure you are not in a gas line or iPad Mini line.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 11:10 PM:  Status quo.  UTIL printing new lows today. AAPL is now only pennies positive on the day. The euro is hanging on to 1.28 by a fingernail, now at 1.2801. VIX 17.87. SOX 381.93.  RTH 44.72. The SPX 1424 R is holding so far today. The 8 MA is moving higher and about to pierce up thru the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart which would forecast bullishness for the hours and days ahead instead of the current bearishness.  This cross can be avoided or lessened if the bears start to push the SPX price immediately lower now. Now that the rain has moved on from Hurricane Sandy, a sea of Autumn leaves are carpeting the grounds requiring attention. It is a crisp, sunny day in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 1:12 PM:  The bulls are running due to the weak dollar. Dollar down is euro up, now at 1.2818.  Commodities and equities move higher.  Gold jumps 30 bucks to 1717. The weak dollar could also hint that Obama is favored in the election today but as seen from yesterday's action, the stock behavior is mixed and does not point to a firm winner. Utilities remain weak and the semi's and retail sectors remain strong.  The SPX broke up thru the 1424 R right before lunchtime and a launch move resulted. The 1429 R was taken out so the uber strong 1433 resistance was attacked next, at 12 noon, and price hit its head on that and has drifted lower ever since. Tech continues to lag the broad market so the higher move is a surprise, the weak dollar is providing the oomph. With tech not as enthusiastic price should leak lower. The 8 MA moved above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart at 11 AM signaling bullishness for the hours and days ahead.  The SPX has moved above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart which is a large feather in the bull cap; watch this closely. The SPX S/R is 1438, 1435.13 (50-day MA), 1435, 1433, 1431.03 (20-day MA), 1431, 1430.33 (200 EMA on 60-min), 1429, 1426.63, 1424, 1422, 1419, 1416, 1413, 1411.97 (20-week MA) and 1409.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 1:50 PM:  The moving averages form a resistance gauntlet that was mentioned on the weekend at 1430-1435, a very important area.  The 1430.33-1431.03 range encompasses the 20-day and 200 EMA/60-min numbers. SPX is now printing 1431.53.  The 1433 is uber strong resistance and a move up thru there is very bullish. The 10-year yield is 1.72%; yield moves up with equities moving up as explained with the TNX charts this morning, the risk-on trade. Keystone took profits on HPQ exiting the trade. Will look to reenter.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 3:14 PM:  The SPX moves sideways with a slight downward bias dropping under the strong 1429 S/R, for now.  The 200 EMA number is important and carries a lot of credibility, bears need to stay under 1430-ish, bulls need to close above 1430-ish. AAPL is a couple bucks red so tech lagging helps to create a drag on upward movement. SOX 382.96.  RTH 44.89.  VIX 17.46. Euro 1.2814. The oak leaves won today as Keystone fought the nor'easter winds coming in.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 3:36 PM:  TRIN is at an uber low 0.60 so a snap-back move lower for markets will be needed into the close or tomorrow to relieve the uber bullish pressure. NYAD has only printed a high of 1440-ish, and the NYSE volume run rate is only at 65% of a days average volume, fumes, and lower than yesterday's volume.  UTIL remains weak and under the 50-week MA, very bearish. The markets are bipolar today. The SPX 1429 R continues to hold. The 10-year yield jumps to 1.75%.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 4:03 PM:  The 1429-1435 zone is a battlefield where bulls win above 1435 and bears win below 1429. The SPX closes at 1428.35. This evening will be interesting, it may be a long night ahead.