SPX Support, Resistance (S/R) and Moving Averages for Trading the Week of 11/19/12

SPX support, resistance, moving averages and other levels of importance are highlighted. The Friday closing print is nestled between the strong support at 1358 and strong resistance at 1362. OpEx Friday was up; typically the Monday following OpEx tends to move opposite the Friday direction. The SPX tends to be bullish into a holiday so a Tuesday low may serve as a low in front of the Thanksgiving holiday. SPX 1343-1345 is strong support and the LOD Friday was the lowest print for the SPX since July.  In fact, Draghi stepped onto a soap box and proclaimed that he would support the euro by all means necessary on 7/26/12 and this placed a firm floor in the markets; call it the stop-gap Draghi put on the markets at SPX 1340.  If 1340 fails, that will indicate a complete loss of confidence by traders.  A loss of 1340 will show that equity traders have thrown the entire central banker's schemes back in their money-pumping faces; both the ECB's OMT Bond-Buying plan, and the Fed's QE3 Infinity, a complete rejection.  The emperor bankster's would be exposed as having no clothes, as Hans Christian Anderson handily describes.  A loss of 1340 verifies that equity traders no long view quantitative easing as having any effectiveness.  That said, the hope by the bulls is a mini market pop on positive Greece news on Tuesday, and, a stronger market pop on news of a Spain bailout request at some day forward, and the bulls will likely receive both bounces.

Bringing it back to the S/R, bears will try to take out that Friday low and usher in a market free-fall move if the 1340 Draghi final put lets loose.  Thus the bears will be gunning for 1343 on Monday which will very likely send the SPX under 1340 in short order. The bulls are facing a strong reinforced resistance ceiling at 1364-1371. The key is both the very strong resistance at 1366 and the 12-month MA at 1368, one of Keystone's cylical signals that now show the broad indexes in a Cyclical Bear Market pattern. The 12-month MA was the cliff edge on the way down (the failure at 1369 dropped the SPX to 1343 in two days, 26 handles) and continues to represent the cliff edge. Thus, if the bulls can move above the 1366-1368 resistance and move higher, the bull case must be respected.  For Monday, the bulls only need two positive points (watch the Sunday evening futures to see if the bulls can muster up a couple points), to punch up thru 1362, and this will launch an upside acceleraton to test the 1366-1368 quickly; that battle will tell you a lot.  A move thru 1344-1361 is sideways action to start the new week.

Note the strong confluence of moving averages at 1382-1384 which could act as a magnet if the bulls start to run.  The upside path for bulls is 1362, 1368, 1375, 1383. The bear path is 1343, 1340, 1337, 1331, 1326. For Monday, bulls win with 1362, bears win with 1343. Considering that the SPX came down to within three measley points of the 1340 Draghi put from 7/26/12, it is not unreasonable, and perhaps even likely, that the SPX should at least test the critical 1340 Draghi floor. This 1340 support level is an ideal place for markets to bounce. As described above, however, a failure at 1340 and the gates to Hades open.

·         1444

·         1441

·         1440 (5/19/08 Intraday HOD for 2008: 1440.24)

·         1438

·         1435

·         1433

·         1431

·         1429.47 (50-day MA)

·         1429

·         1427 (5/19/08 Closing High for 2008: 1426.63)

·         1424

·         1422

·         1419

·         1416

·         1413

·         1409.30 (20-week MA)

·         1409

·         1406.09 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Turn Signal)

·         1406 (5/29/08 HOD)

·         1404.59 (100-day MA)

·         1404

·         1403

·         1402.29 (20-day MA)

·         1401

·         1399

·         1397

·         1394

·         1391

·         1389

·         1385

·         1384.33 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

·         1384.32 (10-month MA)

·         1382.17 (200-day MA)

·         1382.08 (10-day MA)

·         1380

·         1378

·         1375

·         1373

·         1371(5/2/11 Intraday HOD for 2011: 1370.58)

·         1370

·         1367.76 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff edge)

·         1366

·         1365.53 (50-week MA)

·         1364 (4/29/11 Daily Closing High for 2011: 1363.61)

·         1362.03 Friday HOD

·         1362

·         1359.88 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

·         1358

·         1357

·         1355

·         1351

·         1348

·         1345

·         1343.35 Friday LOD

·         1343

·         1341

·         1338

·         1337

·         1335

·         1333

·         1331

·         1329

·         1326

·         1324

·         1321

·         1319

·         1318

·         1316

·         1314

·         1312

·         1308

·         1307

·         1305

·         1300

·         1298

·         1296

·         1295

·         1293 (10/27/11 Intraday High 1292.66)

·         1292

·         1289