Sunday, November 4, 2012

Keystone's SPX 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross Indicator Remains Bearish

The wavy blue line, the 200 EMA, tells you if the bulls or the bears are winning for the days ahead. Right now, the bears.  The blue squares show the back tests that occur since breaking thru this vital moving average is a big deal.  Friday price came up for the back kiss and promptly fell on its sword, collapsing, a successful back test for the market bears. Price then dropped from 1435 to 1414 in six hours, -1.5%, within the Friday session. Note the teal downward-sloping channel where price has now reentered the lower teal channel.  The red sideways channel thru 1403-1419 continues to be a dramatic battle zone. The 1413 and 1406 S/R levels within this channel are key levels to use to gauge which side is winning moving forward. The tiny red circle shows the test of 1403, a successful test for the bulls, since price recovered and ran to the 1435 level. The oversold stochastics, falling wedge and positive divergence (green lines) provided the rocket fuel.

Price rolled over on Friday due to the MACD and stochastics negative divergence but the money flow and RSI were not as convinced. The indicators in general have a sideways vibe to them moving forward. The 1403 is hte Draghi put where a floor exists under the markets due to the ECB bond-buying program, however, Spain must request a bailout for the program to begin. Thus, trader's are frozen like a deer in the headlights. Losing 1403 means all confidence is lost and markets will be in big trouble, and this appears to be on the way. If 1403 is lost, price will likely explore 1350-1380 but the markets can bounce on any godo European news at any time. Price may overshoot to the downside in coming days printing sub 1400 but overall may be content in motoring sideways thru the red channel until Spain announces their intentions perhaps in early December. Of course, the presidential election can wildly catapult the SPX to the sky, or send it to Hades this week.

The takeaway on this chart is to watch the 200 EMA.  The bears rule the markets as long as price stays under the 200 EMA, which is now at 1432-ish. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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