SPX Support, Resistance (S/R) and Moving Averages for Trading the Week of 11/26/12

SPX support, resistance, moving averges and other levels of import are provided below. The bulls ran last week recovering much of the loss after President Obama's election. The 20-day MA at 1394.16 folded like a cheap suit. Most importantly, the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart gave way to the upside. This forecast bullishness for the hours, days and few weeks ahead.  The market bears must come to play on Monday and push the SPX under 1402.32, otherwise, they will be riding in the back seat into December.

The SPX closed at the highs at 1409.16 above the strong 1409 resistance but shy of the 20-week MA at 1412.02 and uber strong 1413 resistance.  The 1412-1413 R should offer up a sturdy ceiling but with the bull momo, nothing is a given.  The 50-day MA is at 1426.31 so the SPX is 17 handles under this critical moving average, and 20 handles under where the market slide started as a result of the election at 1429.  If the 1412-1413 resistance gauntlet holds, then price may peter out and re-explore the downside. If this gauntlet is taken out then the SPX should test the 50-day MA and perhaps higher.

The 1391 support/resistance played a key role last week and served as the launch pad for Friday's rally.  The 1403-1406 cluster is uber strong S/R and price sliced thru like a steak knife thru jello. At a minimum, a back kiss is needed to this cluster and specifically the 200 EMA since this indicator carries a lot of clout. The 1403 level is where Draghi announced the OMT Bond-Buying program so a renewed confidence appears concerning Europe. Who knows why considering that the Greece decision failed last week with the hope that it will be announced on Monday, and the Euro leaders also could not agree on the EU budget.  The German confidence surprising to the upside placed the euro in high spirits and this helped pull the broad equity markets higher. Price punching up thru the 20-day MA is another major bullish accomplishment, light volume or not.  A back test of the 20-day would be in order at some point forward.

For Monday, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the futures overnight Sunday and an upside acceleration will occur with SPX directly testing the 1412-1413 resistance gauntlet in the opening minutes as described above. The bears need to keep the S&P futures negative overnight Sunday and that would stop further upside and send the SPX down to back test the 1402-1406 support levels as described. A move thru 1392-1409 is sideways action for Monday. Bulls win above 1409, and really win if they punch thru 1413 since 1426 and 1429 will be next. Bears win if the back kisses in the 1402-1406 area fail and really win if they can retrace Friday's move and touch 1391, a formidable task but not at all impossible. That would set up a strong move lower for the markets again. The possible recovery points if price drops would be 1406, 1403, 1402.32, 1394.16 and 1391.

·         1451

·         1447

·         1446

·         1444

·         1441

·         1440 (5/19/08 Intraday HOD for 2008: 1440.24)

·         1438 (9/13/12 Fed’s Bernanke Announces QE3 Infinity)

·         1435

·         1433

·         1431

·         1429 (11/6/12 President Obama Election Top)

·         1427 (5/19/08 Closing High for 2008: 1426.63)

·         1426.31 (50-day MA)

·         1424

·         1422

·         1419

·         1416

·         1413

·         1412.02 (20-week MA)

·         1409.16 Friday HOD

·         1409.15 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

·         1409

·         1406.91 (100-day MA)

·         1406 (5/29/08 HOD)

·         1404

·         1403 (9/6/12 ECB’s Draghi Announces OMT Bond-Buying Program)

·         1402.32 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Turn Signal)

·         1401

·         1399

·         1397

·         1394.16 (20-day MA)

·         1394

·         1391.03 Friday LOD

·         1391

·         1389.24 (10-month MA)

·         1389

·         1385

·         1384.68 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

·         1383.24 (200-day MA)

·         1380

·         1378

·         1377.80 (10-day MA)

·         1375

·         1373

·         1371.87 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff edge)

·         1371(5/2/11 Intraday HOD for 2011: 1370.58)

·         1370

·         1368.61 (50-week MA)

·         1366

·         1364 (4/29/11 Daily Closing High for 2011: 1363.61)

·         1362

·         1358

·         1357

·         1355

·         1351

·         1348

·         1345

·         1343

·         1341 (7/26/12 ECB’s Draghi Announces Support for the Euro Starting QE Rally)

·         1338

·         1337

·         1335