USD Ultra Semiconductors Weekly Chart Sideways Symmetical Triangle Breakdown Potential Countertrend Bounce
USD is the 2x long ETF for semiconductors. The previous charts and discussion this morning highlights the beating across the PC sector with HPQ, DELL, INTC, AMD, etc...., all taking the pipe. Keystone opened a position in USD which is long semi's. A relief bounce is due for the sector. USD shows a sideways symmetrical triangle and as often happens, a false breakout will occur in one direction, in this case to the upside at the blue circle, and that leads to a return to the triangle and move out the opposite side. If price prints inside the small green circle, some positive divergence should remain in place to provide a relief bounce higher. The MACD line and money flow, however, will want to see a lower low in the weeks ahead, so the bounce is simply anticipated to be a countertrend bounce, that will only serve as a shorting opportunity. The trend is down. Projection is a bounce from 27.5-28.2 perhaps up to 29-30, then roll over again. Keystone is in USD on the long side, using the play as a helpful hedge against the ongoing net bearishness in place now. If USD drops, as the markets continue to sell off, then Keystone will add to USD since a bounce will show up probably at some point this week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
KS, very good analysis. With this I like NVDA, who beat estimates by a whooping 9 cents. PE 15. All is looking like a set up for the sector to pop at least by January. NVDA broke 3 quarters of loss, so where is the sign of decline. AMD has problems but not so severe so I agree with you there as well. I was the guy who traded CRUS off of RSI other day, and they are nothing but good with a huge massive sell after great earnings reserved guidance. Techas re shaking the branches and will bloom again soon. Thanks for the USD and AMD analysis.
ReplyDeletesorry that was 3 years losses by NVDA
ReplyDeleteHy KS!
ReplyDeleteWhat are the chances of a Monday-Tuesday breakdown of SPX down to 1340-1350? (followed by a rally up to 1400-1420 considering also the FOMC, Ben and Co. talking-heads appearences starting with Nov14)
Please consider also the Bradley turning point from Nov14.
Thnx and keep up the good work :)
V.
Hello KS. Quick question on the EDZ chart. The daily chart looks positively diverged except the RSI (sloping downward). Am I correct on this? I've been following your blog for months now and have learned a lot about charts. Just wanted to test my chart reading skills with the master himself. Thanks a bunch KS.
ReplyDeleteOn NVDA, that has a sideways vibe but exercise caution with the potential descending triangle on the weekly chart, base line at 12. Looking at ZNGA that is set up nicely for apop but it is of course speculative.
ReplyDeleteOn EDZ,that looks very nice on weekly and daily charts it looks like you found a good one. This is one of the dangerous triple X crack ho's. On the daily chart look at how the RSI, stochastics, MACD, money flow all made higher highs from peak to peak over the last couple weeks, that is all long and strong. Price is testing the 50-day MA at 11.85, and using the 20-day as support at 11.43. If it drops at theopen see if it holds the 20-day, or not. Keystone may buy some today. Look a thtat pesky gap at 11.1-11.2, that may need tested today, if so, that may be a great entry.