The Housing Starts were very positive almost hitting 900K, this is the highest since just before the Fall 2008 market crash in July-August 2008. The euro is a hair under 1.28. Above 1.28 and market bulls will be happy, below and bears will be happy. The European Finance Ministers are meeting to decide the fate of Greece; it is anticipated that funding will be provided to keep the sinking ship afloat. The RTH dropped under 43.94 at the opening bell so the bears were glad to see that, but is now printing a hair above as this is typed. XLF is 15.50 well under 15.62 the bulls need. VIX is at 15.22 well under 15.95 contributing bullishly to markets. The 10-year yield is 1.625%. HPQ is getting beaten hard, many investors may assume the accounting and fraud trouble is with HPQ due to all the media hype but it is not, HPQ is clean, it may not be doing as well as it needs to sales-wise, but there are no improprieties at HPQ. Keystone added more HPQ to the ongoing long position. BBY is also out behind the shed receiving its lashings today. Keystone added more to the BBY ongong long trade. The SPX is at 1381.66 now back under the 150 and 200-day MA's at 1384.38 and 1382.67, respectively. The markets are off and stumbling today, some time needs to pass to work thru all the excitement. Chairman Bernanke is on tap at 12:15 PM EST.
Note Added 11/20/12 at 9:54 AM: RTH is sitting directly on top of the 43.94 number called out by Keystone's algo. It is amazing how that works out that way. Whichever way RTH goes, so goes the markets. VIX remains bullish and XLF remains bearish. SPX is 1383.77 now between the 150-day and 200-day MA's.
Note Added 11/20/12 at 10:19 AM: RTH moves above the 43.94 now at 44 so the bulls are favored and the SPX stages a comeback from the lows. The SPX is at 1386 trying to reach 1387 which will send it to 1391. The XLF is exactly at the 15.61-15.62 level. Same dealio as RTH. If XLF moves higher from here, the SPX will hit 1391 and move towards 1400. Bears must prevent XLF 15.62 at all costs. Tech (COMPQ) and the SPX (broad market) are moving together, watch to see which way tech will lead as the day progresses. AAPL is flat. VIX is down favoring bulls. Overall, markets continue along a flat path, likely waiting for Bernanke to speak in less than two hours time. The oak leaves are piling up so the Fall clean-up must proceed.
Note Added 11/20/12 at 12:33 PM: The XLF moved up thru 15.62, now printing 15.65 so the bulls rule. The SPX HOD is 1390. The SPX is up thru the 150 and 200-day MA's and is now fighting with Grand Daddy, the 10-month MA, at 1386.99. It is all going the bulls way today as Chairman Bernanke wipes the steak sauce from his necktie and begins to speak. He will be taking questions. The 10-year yield is 1.65% much more agreeable with the bullish equity markets today than yesterday. COMPQ is -0.15% and the SPX is -0.01% so the Nasdaq (tech) is leading the broad markets lower. This should help the bears keep a ceiling on the action today. Watch 1391 resistance and XLF 15.62.
Note Added 11/20/12 at 12:47 PM: Keystone bot SPXS, the dangerous and speculative triple X inverse ETF, opening a new long position (which shorts the market). The minute charts, and now hte 1-hour and 2-hour charts, on the SPX are displaying the negative divergence mentioned yesterday into the close. The MACD lines and money flow on the 2-hour chart is long and strong so a slight jog may occur with the SPX dropping a point or two, then recovering again, then perhaps roll over into the close. Keybot the Quant is long so the SPXS short play also helps hedge against this main holding in the portfolio. The SPX continues to fight Grand Daddy. XLF is 15.65, bullish.
Note Added 11/20/12 at 2:03 PM: Chairman Bernanke had to be given the hook since the markets kept falling as he spoke. The SPX is at 1381 under the 1382-1387 resistance gauntlet. RTH is at 43.93 on the bull-bear line at 43.92-43.93. XLF is 15.57 under 15.62, bearish. VIX is 15.62 printing the highs of the day, under 15.95, helping the bulls. Watch RTH 43.92 to determine market direction forward.
Note Added 11/20/12 at 2:25 PM: RTH is at 43.98 causing lift in the broad indexes. The SPX should work lower and test the 1377 low from a short time ago but that will not occur unless the RTH moves back under 43.92.
Note Added 11/20/12 at 5:07 PM: The SPX closed at 1387.82 seventy-one cents above the 10-month MA at 1387.11, a bullish indication. Price has moved up thru the 1382-1387 resistance gauntelt which is also bullish. XLF is 15.65 above 15.62, bullish. RTH is 48.10 above the 43.92, bullish. VIX is 15.08 well under 15.95, bullish. It all went the bulls way this afternoon. The Nasdaq finished negative today, tech is not leading higher.
Nice timing on SPXS. You must have gotten some good advice from the blind squirrels while out in the those oak leaves. Will we still likely get back toward the highs of the day?
ReplyDeleteHi KS,
ReplyDeleteWith the Israel-Hamas War continues, I like to hear you put in a few words on oil? Thanks!
bought SDS (2x inverse ETF that shorts the S&p500) at 58.25 today. Same philosophy as KS. Btw, Bernanke says "no more additional QE" and somebody let the air out of the balloon pronto.... hahaha, what a circus.
ReplyDeleteBernanke says no more QE, because he's all out of ammo. Also, he knows that if we go over the Fiscal Cliff, there's not a whole hell of a lot he can do about it. This is Shit Creek. Where's your paddle?
ReplyDeleteMarkets are meandering today. VIX is finally showing signs of life. RTH 43.92 and XLF 15.62 are the numbers to watch. RTH is 43.99 right now so that is giving the markets a lift. There should be a lower low than the low from a short while ago at 1377 on tap. RTH will have to cooperate. The low CPC put/call sticks in your mind and provides comfort in owning short index positions. Keybot, however, is long. Euro at 1.28 and it will not decide one way or the other. Oil does not seem all that affected on the Israeli-Hamas stuff, Brent more so, up thru 111 today, but WTIC not so much. Sounds like a truce is being put together now.
ReplyDeleteKeybot should be long, if markets rally, everyone looks good this time. Nothing to gain with no election. Retail will rally, BBY is oversold ay?
ReplyDeleteOn a quick catch-up with the charts tonight I agree that this is ready to roll over about now. I built my shorts back up too early as usual, but they will work out fine with the next push down. Congrats to those who were more patient.
ReplyDeleteI am now leaning towards this being [iv] (rather than more nesting), so now we need [v] of 3, then 4, then 5 of (1), then (2).
In non-wave terms: two lower lows, then a very tradeable bounce.
I will cover a good part of my shorts on the first push down and the rest on the next assuming the price action confirms, and you should watch for divergences probably as large as the daily timeframe to confirm. There are of course more options, but now that I have had some time to study this decline I am more confident than I was with my previous predictions that didn't work out very well, but I will likely check more thoroughly, particularly markets other than $SPX, over the break.
The ultimate ~1000 target remains the same, but we will most likely be doing quite a bit of bouncing before then.
With you Trader Kid. Built up my shorts too early but I am confident Republicans will fight obama for the bush tax cuts next week. cpc at 1.10 and futures down -7.80. Hard to tell if tomorrow will be flat though from the euphoria on housing and the 'constructive' fiscal talk. Could be a drop and pop. Holding shorts nonetheless with a very small cover.
DeleteThe Greece decsision fell thru so the euro is dropping so this should weaken the markets. Seasonality is playing a part, this week is typically good for the bulls.
ReplyDelete