Keystone's Midday Market Action 11/13/12; CSCO

The SPX drops at the opening bell, falling thru the strong 1375 support and placing a low at 1371.39.  A bounce occurs to back kiss the 1375.  SPX 1369.44 is the cliff edge and the bulls are dancing across the edge of the fire right now. Tech is leading the downside which should help the bears move lower to attack the 1369.44 so a decision can be made. Oil is odwn, copper is down. The NYA is 8024 only about twenty points away from the dangerous bull-bear line and market failure. VIX is 17.16 back above 17.

Note Added 11/13/12 at 9:51 AM:  VIX drops under 17.  The SPX moves up thru 1375 support/resistance.  AAPL is a smidge red.  Tech continues to lead on the negative side so the market move higher is suspect. Watch to see if the 200-day MA at 1381.59 provides a firm celiing, or not. The euro is at 1.2689.

Note Added 11/13/12 at 10:28 AM:  Today is a repeat of yesterday thus far, price playing around the 150-day MA at 1384.76 and 200-day MA at 1381.61. The 20-week MA is 1365.95. The SPX is 1380.59. VIX is 16.62. AAPL is flat.  Tech wants the markets to move lower. The beat goes on.

Note Added 11/13/12 at 12:13 PM:  The euro is 1.2713.  The SPX moves up thru the moving averages above and sets its sights on punching thru the 10-month MA at 1386.90, remember, this S/R was where price came down and intially bounced a couple days ago. The HOD is 1388.81 so price poked up thru but cannot hold 1387 thus far today. Price touched the 1385 handle as mentioned this morning so this accelerated price higher to the 1389-ish high thus far.  AAPL is  a few bucks higher and tech continues to want to see lower prices rather than higher prices.  The 1389 high is only two points away from the important 1391 resistance described this morning. VIX is 16.42.  Markets are listless right now, stumbling sideways. Let's call it a sideways channel thru 1369-1370 at the bottom, which represents the cliff at the edge of the world, and 1391, which would signal further rally action up and over 1400 ahead. Use the moving averages highlighted above, within this 1369-1391 zone, to determine which side is winning the smaller battles, the move out of 1369 (look out below) or 1391 (bull rally victory) will determine the winner for the hours or days ahead.  The low for today occurred at the opening bell with a -900 TICK and the high occurred at 11 AM with the +900 TICK. The SPX is simply exploring the 1369-1391 range as it prepares to make a decision out one side or the other.

Note Added 11/13/12 at 12:42 PM:  The SPX 30-minute chart shows the 8 MA punching up thru the 34 MA indicating that the bulls are favored for the hours and days ahead.  Keep watching this into the closing bell since the move is not yet convincing. The 8 and 34 MA's are at 1382-1384, thus, bulls will continue to build on the rally today if they can keep the SPX above 1384 and moving higher.  The bears can regain the upper hand if the SPX drops under 1382 and heads lower.

Note Added 11/13/12 at 2:45 PM:  The 8 and 34 MA's on the 30-minute chart keep fighting it out today with the 8 MA on top so the bulls can keep that feather in their caps. The Nasdaq is negative and continues to want to lead lower so that is a feather in the bears cap. The SPX is now between the 150-day and 200-day MA, indecision continues. The euro sits at 1.27, not tipping its hand as to which side it prefers. As mentioned this morning, market bears are favored under 1.27, market bulls over 1.27.

Note Added 11/13/12 at 3:41 PM:  The 8 MA just fell thru the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead.  See if it holds into the close since the 8 and 34 MA's have been fighting all day long. Keystone added more USD, the 2x long semiconductor ETF long trade.  AMD feeling some late day love; there must be some good news.

Note Added 11/13/12 at 3:46 PM:  The SPX is testing the strong 1375 support and is now back under all the important moving averages listed above except for the 20-week MA which would likely fail if the 1369 cliff edge gives way. CSCO earnings are important after the bell as well as Chambers' comments. CSCO will affect the Nasdaq and tech leads.  AAPL is stone cold flat. A potential long trade may be desireable from 515-535 but if price continues higher without coming down further, a short entry from the 575-625 area is likely the next trade to consider for AAPL.

Note Added 11/13/12 at 3:55 PM:  SPX 1375 failure, see if price recovers, or not, bounce or die.

Note Added 11/13/12 at 4:01 PM:  The SPX closes under the strong 1375 support, a feather for the bulls cap. Not even the Fed's Yellen yellin' dovishness could stop the market slide into the closing bell. Interesting how that weakness in tech all day long continued to fester and eventually pulled the broad indexes lower.  Tech and small caps lead. The COMPQ and RUT led the SPX and INDU lower today, a bearish signal. CSCO is on deck.

Note Added 11/13/12 at 5:09 PM:  CSCO beats and paints a rosier picture so it jumps higher in the AH's. This will help set a positive tone for tech tomorrow.  AMD says they are not seeking a sale of the company or patents so the price deflates again but remains elevated slightly.  Typically where there is smoke there is fire so perhaps AMD has some things going on behind the scenes to unlock value.  ZNGA CFO (chief finanical officer) moves to FB, typically that would be bad news, the rats leaving the sinking ship scenario, but since he is going to FB, which is ZNGA's kissin' cousin, it appears to be no biggie, and ZNGA stock price is hanging in there fine.  That steamy General Petraeus stuff is getting out of hand, perhaps if folks knew things before the election it would have been nice to air that ahead of time so everyone knew the score, but, what is done is done.  The problem is the scandal may affect the perceived political capital of the president and further reinforce the idea that the country is exactly at the same place it was before the election, political bipartisonship and gridlock, two dysfunctional sides unable or unwilling to work with each other. This matters since the closer the fiscal cliff appears, the further the markets sell off.  This sexy scandal makes any gristled war veteran blush. The services can use it in a new recruiting campaign, all those wild goings-on would surely attract many new volunteers. Keystone needs a few heart pills and a slice of pumpkin pie, one day is crazier than the next.