SPX Weekly Chart

The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence caused the spankdown during October-November.  Price needed a relief bounce over the last week since it was falling fast.  The bottom trend line provided support.  The indicators are not enthusiastic about the move higher, especially such a strong move that did not receive benefit from positive divergence. The indicators lean bearish and not even the stochastics reached oversold levels. Of interest is the RSI where a lower low than summer was placed but price remains well elevated from those levels. The RSI should act as a weight on price and drag it lower.

The volume is telling, over the last five weeks, the selling volume outpaces the buying volume by about 2 to 1.  Watch the 20-week MA at 1412.02 this week to see if this overhead resistance holds, or not.  The 1412-1413 level is strong resistance so the bulls will be throwing confetti if they can punch up thru since 1433 would be on the table. Use the RSI 50% level as the bull-bear line, above 50% and the bulls will continue to smile. If the RSI drops under 50% then the bears are starting to push hard.

The light blue box shows the last time that price fell thru the 20-week MA then bounced off the 50-week MA and retested the 20-week MA. Note the strong downward intraweek spikes at the blue box. Even though price eventually resolved to the upside this year, when Draghi said he would support the euro by all means necessary in late July, wild intraweek spikes lower were occurring during the sideways movement along the 20-week MA inside the blue box. This fractal hints that price may want to move in a similar sideways move thru the 1412-ish level with perhaps a couple large downward spikes to 1391.  Bulls need to punch up thru 1412-1413 to set up lots more upside ahead. Bears need to make a stand and prevent 1412-1413 with all their might which will open the door for lower prices. Projection is for the 1409-1419 ceiling to hold and for price to venture lower as the weeks move forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.