Cyber Monday is here where the home bodies will commence 'couch commerce', the latest hip buzzword phrase mentioned in economic circles. Bosses cringe knowing that employees will be far more concerned about shopping on-line rather than completing the latest report on time. However, the bosses are on their computers as well multi-tasking with holiday shopping and work simultaneously. Employees are well-versed at quickly clicking the correct button to remove the shopping screen from the computer if they hear the bosses' footsteps.
Black Friday shows people coming out in droves, fighting for parking places, overpowering the stores, however, the sales on Friday were lower than last year. The number of folks shopping is not as important as the number that are carrying bags. The Thanksgiving Day store openings pulled the Friday sales forward. Overall, the entire weekend was happy for most retailers. The hesitancy by shoppers, however, does hint at a very tentative shopper this season only willing to open the wallet if the deal is too good to pass up. When Keystone opens his wallet, moths fly out. The ongoing low and lackluster employment picture, along with wage deflation, does nothing to encourage spending, only the promise of 50% off will shoppers become excited.
Euro leaders promised a deal on Greece today, as always, do not hold your breath. A Finland official this morning already hinted that perhaps a deal will not develop until next week. The Spain bailout rumors continue, since the ECB needs the bailout request to begin bond-buying, but this is likely continued bluster. The Spain 10-year yield is under 6% and the bailout request will likely not occur until the yield is over 6.2%, or, if the equity markets collapse, since Spain will be forced into the request under that scenario. The Israel-Hamas War is calm, the cease-fire is helping. Egypt is a mess. Much of the oil production in the Middle East moves thru Egypt. Tomorrow at 5 PM local Cairo time (10 AM EST) both the pro-Morsi crowds and protestors against Morsi's power grab will take to the streets. Tens of thousands of people. Any sight of violence and upheaval tomorrow morning during trading hours, as video is streamed across television, will not set a happy tone for trading.
Scroll back over the last couple pages to review the posts this weekend. The SPX charts were posted, watch the 30-minute and 60-minute charts. The SPX 1409 is the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the September top and a logical place for markets to take a rest. For today, the bulls only need a smidge of green in the futures to launch an upside attack at the strong 1412-1413 resistance. The futures, however, have been negative all night long, now down about six at this writing one and one-half hour before the opening bell. The bears are trying to stop the upside momo and need to push the SPX down to touch 1391 to reginite strong negativity. A move thru 1392-1409 is sideways action today. The 20-day MA at 1412.02, 100-day MA at 1406.91 and 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1402.32 all are key.
Keystone's algo is identifying five key areas that will dictate broad index direction today; SOX 373, JJC 44.95, GTX 4980, VIX 15.95 and XLF 15.62. Any change to any of these parameters will result in the broad indexes moving in that respective direction. SOX, JJC and GTX (semi's, copper and commodities, respectively), are in the bear camp so the bulls are trying to entice these to join the bull party and send markets higher. VIX and XLF (volatility and financials, respectively) are in the bull camp and the bears are tyring to entice one or both to join the bear camp so the market downside can be re-explored. Fed manufacturing data is on tap this morning. Markets are watching Europe (Greece and Spain), the Middle East (Egypt, Israel, Gaza, Iran) and of course the Congress Clown Carnival featuring the Fiscal Cliff drama. Can the political jugglers keep all the plates in the air?
Does that make any sense to anyone? It's Black Friday and I could be sleeping in bed, but no... Let's get up at the asscrack of dawn, drive down to the local Big Box, fight for a parking spot, fight and push in line, but not buy a damn thing. No one wonder this country's in so much trouble.
ReplyDeleteKS, I told you that teh longer hours and opening on Thurs were signs of the epidemic that is upon us. Terrorism, outbreaks, won't kill us. Consumerism will. So...buy retailers, PETM, BBY, AAPL, and wait to see these earnings next quarter. The disease is on and the the real health care stocks are the ones that make things you can buy.
ReplyDeleteTell us, Anon, since when has an economy every grown when consumers stopped buying things. We get up in the morning, we eat, we shit, we go places. Let's face it: staying alive requires a certain amount of resources. While consumers could certainly be smarter about their purchases, there's a certain amount of "stuff" that everyone's going to need, unless we all move off to that hippie commune, where everyone's naked and no one bathes. Consumerism is hardly the great evil.
DeleteHey Shane and Anon, look no further than V and MA, both exhibiting nasty negative divergence on the weekly charts, and setting up nice for short plays, overall, this does not forebode good things for retail in general moving forward, but as always individual plays will win and lose. Typically retailers do fade from now into the new year since the stocks run up on all the pre-holiday hype and excitement each year.
ReplyDeleteKS what's your read on the huge gaps in the SPY? I expected this rally and took some profits, but in the natural course of things those big gaps would be filled before SPY can move higher. Any thoughts on which divergences may play out this week?
ReplyDeleteFor the SPY, as with any ETF, using the underlying index is much more valuable to gauge their behavior. For SPY, that is obviously SPX, which does not display all the swiss cheese gaps. It is actaully buttoned up real well. It looks like some movement thru this 1394 (20-day MA) to 1413 area may be ahead. If bears can push under the 20-day and the strong 1391, the downside will begin in earnest again. Bulls need 1413 and higher. Makrets are waiting for a catalyst. If Egypt gets ugly tomorrow morning, that could impact markets negatively. The Greece positive decision, which is not even final yet, is likely priced in already. Markets are at an inflection point here at 1391-1413. If markets go lower, the VIX over 15.95 and XLF under 15.62 will confirm the negativity, otherwise, it will be a fake out to the downside and the indexes will recover.
ReplyDelete