Monday, November 26, 2012

CPC Put/Call Ratio Signals Significant Market Top Extreme Caution Required


The CPC put/call ratio fell out of bed today printing an uber low 0.63.  There is no wall of worry occurring which is what you want to see if long during a rally.  The complete opposite is in place, traders are not worried about any downside at all. There is no worry or fear that markets will ever go down again.  What do you think will happen?  The CPC is a contrarian indicator so a low CPC under 0.80 identifies a market top and a high CPC above 1.20  identifies a market bottom. The red circles show what happened every other time over the last three years.  Today's print is the lowest since the CPC identified the exact top in the market in front of the August 2011 waterfall crash.

The charts tell the story. Extreme caution is required since a significant market top is now in place. Perform your soul searching for any long positions held. Decide if you are willing to hold them for a few months, even a year or more. If not, consider unloading them regardless of whether they are profitable or not. The red circles say that the bears will have a fantastic December and joyous Christmas, and ample profits to help the needy and donate to the local food bank. The red circles also say that the bullish traders will be the needy at the food bank come December.

The CPC is always give or take a few days or couple weeks but, hang on to your hat, the charts above say that something wicked this way comes. The markets have a very high potential of a significant selloff ahead perhaps a move down that is stronger than the October-November selloff of over 120 handles. Hedging any long positions and bringing on protection is a prudent strategy forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

5 comments:

  1. OMG OMG for real.. What happened you your XLF indicator. It is still up...

    Good call the market is going to tank. 1250 at least.

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  2. wow, 0.63 that's uber low. haven't seen it that low in a while, not even during the april or september peaks of this year. needless to say, something is not right (with the market). i am short since 1390, i think those tickets will be golden sooner than we think!?

    needless to say, your commentary of who's feeding who at the food banks during christmass is hilarious! keep 'em coming!

    ps: $NYMO closed outside it's upper BB on Friday, and moved inside today. A close like that is also seldom as CPC of 0.63... and often signals also a top in place...

    carefull folks, this could be a 2nd wave up, with a 3 down to come and when 3rd waves role in there is NO stopping them!!!

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  3. :)
    1410-1425 = a good area to short on spx ... told you, KS, a few days ago!
    Watch the Midweek .... the housing data as per October and especially housing data on Oct from Thurday ...and GDP print , of course :) ....
    I might be wrong but in maximum 72 hours the Keybot the Quant will be flashing red'n short .... and in maximum 2 weeks to 2 months we will (re)visit the 1266-1017 spx points area...

    V.
    (Europe south-eastern 'dilettante' non-bot trader, from Romania)

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    Replies
    1. one more thing to add, KS:

      your blog is one of the top3 best trading blogs worldwide, maybe the best one (out of my list of 92 most daily visited trading blogs) - as technical arguments presented and professional approach.

      you're doing an "A" mark job, for sure!
      ;) ...keep up the good work :) !
      V.

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  4. Danke for the comments. Markets continue sending out mixed messages. Remember markets are moving thru different time frames all the time, so things can be bullish for say the VST and ST, but bearish for say the IT. There are likely many twists and turns ahead but there should be some wild market action ahead. Human minds may be affected metaphysically as well with the full moon and lunar eclipse over the next couple days.

    XLF, JJC and SOX will remain key parameters, as identified by Keystone's algo, but these are likely sorting out the shorter term action and as mentioned above, if the CPC signal plays out moving forward, Keybot the Quant should flip short in the days ahead, or at anytime. Interestingly, copper is up this morning which may actually strengthen Keybot's long direction. Things can reverse fast, however. Remember, Keybot is designed to take a smoother path thru the trading year and not designed to catch exact tops and bottoms. So the broad indexes would likely roll over a bit before Keybot triggers to the short side.

    Lots of drama is ahead.

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