Wednesday, November 21, 2012

XEU Euro Daily Chart Sideways Channel Potential Island Reversal Gaps

The euro is moving thru the 127-131 channel for three months.  When Draghi pledged support for the euro on 7/26/12 he was not fooling around, look at the move from under 121 to over 131, over 8%.  This was all part and parcel to the summer quantitative easing rallies. In fact the actual announcement of the OMT program created the sideways channel moving forward.  Also, the gap up forms an island that price continues to honor.  the euro came down to 127 to threaten an island reversal, or simply a gap fill at 126.4-127.0, but the euro bulls bounced price.  There was no positive divergence, sans the flat histogram, so the jump up off of 127 was more due to anticipated happy Greece talk and perceived European calmness.

The 200-day MA is 128.19 so this serves as a key resistance ceiling and will tell you the fate of the equities markets.  Above 128.19 and the market bulls will run higher, the SPX will move up and over 1391 and on to 1403.  If the 128.19 ceiling holds, then the bears will start to push harder and the euro will drop to a test of 1.27 support again. The 20-day MA is dropping like a stone and it forms a confluence now with the 200-day and the current price, making this decision move at 128.20 all that much more important.

The Greece talks ended without resolution, the leaders will try again on Monday, simply an excuse to squeeze out another free buffet.  Today will provide the answer. Above 128.20 and bulls win, the markets head higher.  If the euro stays under 128.20, and especially loses the 128 psychological level and heads lower the market bears will rule moving forward. At this writing, the euro is printing 128.08. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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4 comments:

  1. UnknownNovember 21, 2012 at 9:11 AM

    KS,

    In previous posts you have alluded to a threshold with the EURUSD rate and US equity markets. A weaker dollar means higher US equity markets. So by that logic, does a stronger USD with relation to EUR mean higher European equity markets? I am having trouble reconciling this as it seems that global equity markets seem to move with each other.

    I was wondering if that relationship is something you have observed or something that can be explained by some kind of interconnectedness of financial markets.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Keystone SpeculatorNovember 21, 2012 at 9:25 AM

    Jan the typical assest relationship in place, which may slightly fluctuate any give day due to all the parameters is,

    Euro up = dollar down = dollar/yen down = commodities up = copper up = gold up = equities up = Tresury yields up with prices down. (inflationary) money moves out of bonds into stocks.

    or, for the bears,

    Euro down = dollar up = dollar/yen up = commodities down = copper down = gold down = equities down = Treasury yields down with prices up. (disinflation and deflationary) money moves out of stocks into bonds.

    ReplyDelete
  3. UnknownNovember 21, 2012 at 9:30 AM

    KS,

    Thanks for that. I was missing that crucial piece of how equity markets and bond markets interact.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Keystone SpeculatorNovember 21, 2012 at 10:03 AM

    Yep, bond yields should move up with equities moving up, this is because money moves out of bonds and into stocks to chase the run higher. when bond yields move up the bond price moves down since they are trying to attact money since money is leaving.

    ReplyDelete

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