Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 11/22/12; Thanksgiving Day

Markets are closed today and a shortened session occurs tomorrow closing at 1 PM EST.  The SPX closed exactly on top of the 1391 that Keystone was preaching about the last couple days. The XLF punched thru 15.62, albeit by pennies, but this move will contribute bullishly to markets nonetheless.  For Friday, Keystone's algorithm is tracking four major parameters that will dictate broad market direction; VIX 15.95 (now at 15.31 creating market bullishness), XLF 15.62 (now at 15.65 creating market bullishness), RTH 43.92 (now at 44.25 creating market bullishnes) and JJC 44.85 (now at 44.21 contributing bearishly to markets). Any change to these four parameters will move markets in that respective direction.  If the bulls keep running and take out JJC 44.85 to the upside, the SPX will be headed well over 1400. The bears are trying to stop the upside momo and can immediately stall the markets by pushing XLF back under 15.62.

The cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas War helped place markets in a happy mood into the close yesterday.  The euro 1.2820 level is important since price is wrestling with the confluence of resistance at 1.2825 (20-day MA) and 1.2817 (200-day MA). The battle was a draw yesterday with the euro unable to decide on a firm direction but at this writing on Thursday morning in the States, the euro is up, at 1.2870. As the euro goes, so goes the markets. This is encouraging news for market bulls. China's Flash HSBC PMI is 50.4 slightly above the 50 mark showing expansion for the first time in one year. This excites global markets, and the euro, and provides copper a lift, but the enthusiasm may be tempered when traders realize the data makes it less likely that China will provide stimulus.  European leaders are meeting to set the EU budget moving forward. The Eurozone PMI is less enthusiastic than China today, remaining in contraction mode reflecting the sick European economy.

For the SPX for Friday, starting at the critical 1391 support/resistance level, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the futures and an upside market acceleration will occur tomorrow morning. Considering the XLF is above 15.62 and the euro is moving higher, the bulls have a lot to be thankful for on Thanksgiving. The bears will try to stop the upside momo by sending the futures negative before tomorrow's opening bell. Once the Monday session begins, if the bears can push the SPX under 1386 the market downside will accelerate.  A move thru 1387-1391 is sideways action. Focus on XLF 15.62, JJC 44.85 and SPX 1391 when the bell rings tomorrow morning.