Keystone's Midday Market Action 11/21/12; Greece Decision Fails; Consumer Sentiment

After 11 hours, the Euro leaders failed to reach agreeent on Greece. Greece jumped thru all the hoops but the big shots could not agree on how to provide the dough.  A resolution will be attempted on Monday again.  The euro took an immediate hit dropping well thru the 1.27's but has recovered to back above 1.28.  As this morning's chart  shows, use the 1.2820 as the bull-bear line in the sand. The euro moves in the same direction as the SPX, thus, if the euro moves above 1.2820, the market bulls will be on their way thru SPX 1391 and on to 1403.  If the bears can provide resistance at 1.2820 and keep the euro under, and moving under the psychological 1.28, the bears will kick it into gear again for the downside.

RTH 43.92 and XLF 15.62 provided the bull fuel yesterday. Watch them at the opening bell. Bears obviously need to push one or both of these under the levels shown to send the equties markets lower, if not, the bulls will take the broad indexes higher. The movement of the SPX is less important than these two parameters since RTH and XLF are dictating market direction currently.  For the SPX starting at 1388, the bulls only need two measley points to provide a bull rally of happiness into the Thanksgiving holiday.  Seasonality bullishness is playing a role this week. Markets are typically up 77% of the time the day before Thanksgiving.  If the bulls can punch thru the strong 1391 resistance, 1403 will be next, where a critical test of the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart would occur, as described this morning.  The bears need to push the SPX under 1377 to accelerate the downside. A sideways channel thru 1377-1391 is in play so bulls win above 1391, bears win below 1377. A market pivot point will occur this morning at 9:55 AM with Consumer Confidence and Leading Indicators at 10 AM. Oil and Natty Gas Inventories are also on tap mid-morning.  DE missed on the bottom line but beat on top line revenue, not a ringing endorsement for the global economy.  HPQ and BBY will likely receive further negative talk today in the media. The euro is at 1.2808.  The 10-year Treasury yield is 1.67%. The SPX 10-month MA is 1387.11, the 150-day MA is 1384.42 and the 200-day MA is 1382.70.

Note Added 11/21/12 at 9:15 AM:  The euro is 1.2822, and so the fight begins......

Note Added 11/21/12 at 10:00 AM:  The euro is 1.2817.  The SPX HOD is 1390.72. That serves as a higher high compared to the trading late yesterday. Looking at the 30-minute and 1-hour charts, for example, shows negative divergence in place which should send price lower. We are in the middle of the pivot, however, so everything remains a toss-up.  RTH and XLF remain bullish. VIX is under 15. The 10-year yield is 1.69%. The 1391 is key. Consumer Sentiment is weaker than expected. Leading Indicators are in line.

Note Added 11/21/12 at 10:42 AM:  XLF is fighting at 15.61-15.62, this is the important, whooosies daisies, now 15.60. If XLF remains under 15.61 and heads lower the broad indexes will weaken. The SPX continues the fight at the 10-month MA, a critical level moving average used by the old-timers. VIX is at 15.  RTH is 44.02 a dime above the 43.92 which would drive markets lower. Markets are at an inflection point; watch SPX 1391, XLF 15.61, RTH 43.92, euro 1.2820.

Note Added 11/21/12 at 11:43 AM:  XLF is bear-friendly now at 15.60 and it should weaken markets, albeit only a penny under the bull-bear line at 15.61-15.62.  The euro is exactly at 1.2820, how do you like that.  It must choose a side and markets will follow.

Note Added 11/21/12 at 12:04 PM:  XLF 15.57.  Euro 1.2815.  Bears are pushing now.

Note Added 11/21/12 at 12:46 PM:  Cease-fire for the Israel-Hamas War is announced.  Oil drops.  Equities pop.  XLF now over 15.62, bullish.  The euro is 1.2828, bullish.  The SPX is attacking the strong 1391 resistance. If price moves thru 1391, the 1403 will serve as the next strong resistance target above.

Note Added 11/21/12 at 2:30 PM:  The VIX was brought back to life now printing 15.22. The euro is at 1.2822. The XLF is 15.62.  The SPX is 1391.  These three parameters are sitting on the bull-bear fence and will move markets depending on the direction they choose. All three will move in the same direction, up or down, they simply have to choose the direction now. The bears are putting up quite a fight keeping the 1391 ceiling in place, for now.  Tech is leading the upside so this helps the bulls. RTH is 44.22 well above its level of concern at 43.92 which contributes bullishly to markets.