The ECB Rate Decision occurs today and results in no change to rates. The ECB will have to weaken the euro to boost exports and growth, especially now that Germany is weak. The triple top and H&S pattern with the 1465 head and 1435 neck line targeted 1405, the Draghi put level. This target was achieved and now a new and larger H&S pattern is in play shown by the green lines. The head is 1465, neckline at 1400, this targets 1335. As always tends to happen, targets wil correspond to important S/R levels and 1330-1340 becomes a strong confluence area, which wil act as a magnet as time moves forward.
The thiin red lines show the downward-sloping channel. Price is due for a bounce perhaps to back kiss the new neckline area, and Draghi put area at 1399-1403. A move to the top rail of the channel would test 1419-ish. The 200-day MA is coming sideways and will hit the lower rail at 1380-ish so that level is important moving forward. The indicators show that the histogram and stochastics want to see a bounce in price but the other indicators would be happier to see price come back down and retest the lows at 1390 and lower. The central bankers are out of bullets, the bazooka has no oomph, Spain is not requesting a bailout so the ECB gun has blanks, traders are losing confidence in the effects of QE, and these money printing emperor's are exposed for not wearing any clothes. Projection is lower prices as the days and weeks move along. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Of all of the "talking heads" that I have been following ---even the paid advisers--- you have been the most accurate. I don't mean to say that you're a talking head, only someone I'm following. I like you work a lot, even though I'm not sure where some of it comes from. The Keybot seems to be some sort of mystery and you're happy to keep it that way. The one thing I don't agree with is when you said "It never matters that you do not understand how a particular indicator works, all that matters is if it is repeatable and worth using as a tool in the tool box." Perhaps, you meant that differently than I read it. If you don't understand how it works, then you can't understand why it was successful in that environment. We don't know the conditions that are necessary for it to be accurate in the future. It's kind of guessing in a way. Guessing has never ended very well for me. Seeing how you tend to handle everything else, I doubt that it's guessing. You simply haven't written all down yet.
ReplyDeleteShane, on any technical or formula method, it is definitely identifiable, repeatable and makes sense as to why it works. The comment was in reference to the esoteric indicators which is the Bradley turns, and Keystone's eclipse indicator only. The full and new moons as well. There are metaphysical effects that influence humans, look at solar flares how they place human's on edge and make them prone for quick and bad decisions. Many market sell offs, such as August 2011, exactly coincide with sunspots. The Bradley turns are uncanny how they identify market turning points and aid as a heads-up. So the thought is Keystone sure does not know why these metaphysical things result in accurate tools, such as markets typically bullish moving into the full moon, and bearish into the new moon, but they work, and they serve as a means to determine the background current of the market only. So there is not much to it all. These esoteric tools are repeatable so they are referenced but mankind will likely not figure out how the metaphysical stuff works for humans for a few more decades. Everything else on the site is all mathematic and scientific.
ReplyDeleteThe sector levels that are often represented are provided by Keystone's algo, it can identify which sectors in real-time most strongly effect broad index movement (these are the references to SOX, RTH, XLF, etc...). You willn ot find this anywhere on the Internet it is all independet prorietary analysis developed by Keystone. Keybot the Quant algorithm took about one decade to develop and it is all proprietary. Some things have to be kept secret, that way it will seem like GS is actually getting something if they ever decide to buy Keybot.