OWL Blue Owl, APO Apollo, TPG, and STEP StepStone Daily Charts Crash Due to Private Equity Blow-Up; BX Blackstone, KKR, CG Carlyle Group, and ARES Are Garbage, Too

Ka-boom. Private equity is blowing-up. Hit the deck! The private equity chickens (illiquid assets) are coming home to roost bringing their sick greedy diseases infecting all the barnyard critters at the Animal Farm; a contagion? Private equity companies are twisted-up into the artificial intelligence trade (data center loans, software loans, etc...) and some investors are realizing that they should have had a lawyer read the fine print. They swore that after signing up for that timeshare that they would never sign anything again until a lawyer looked at it. Oh well, it is time to bend over again.

Private equity follows different rules than other companies. Some investors now realize that they cannot pull all their money out of those investments with a phone call. You are lucky if your call is returned.

Blue Owl receives a black eye in the news everyday for the last couple weeks as it should be. It is a piece of crapola. Instead of OWL they should call it Ow because it is hurting the shareholders. OWL was already trending lower when it came into the end of last year when the bottom fell out. It peaked in December and has crashed -38% in 10 weeks, so far.

The next piece of private equity excrement is APO that peaked as the new year started and has crashed -26% in 7 weeks, so far. This Apollo rocket ride comes crashing down to Earth. Houston, we have a problem.

TPG peaks as the new year begins and crashes -39% in 7 weeks that is about a -6% drop per week for the last 7 weeks, so far.

Note that OWL peaked first and started the ball down hill while APO and TPG watched. Blue Owl is the canary in the private equity coal mine. Apollo and TPG then topped-out and started to stumble at the start of he new year. STEP watched the others drop but kept on trucking along in December into the new year. Investors still wanted to buy StepStone with both fists. The party continued into the new year but the stock then stepped off the cliff and those traders paid dearly for their bullishness.

STEP crashes -43% in only 5 weeks. StepStone basically lost half its value in a month, so far. StepStone is beaten like a red-headed step child. What about the other half? The private equity grenade explodes in the lunchroom of the credit risk department unfortunately destroying the free coffee machine. STEP was a stepping stone to Hades.

There are plenty of other pieces of garbage on the private equity trash heap. BX crashes -32% in the last 6 weeks. KKR crashes -37% in the last 10 weeks. CG crashes -27% in the last 6 weeks. ARES crashes -37% in 10 weeks. There are others such as Bain Capital, Thoma Bravo and Warburg Pincus. Treasury Secretary Bessent has a big problem on his plate, next to the broccoli, called private equity. Media outlets are going to want Bessent and King Donnie to comment on a potential credit crisis in the offing.

Remember, when companies offer high yields to attract investors, that is the spider telling the fly to come over and check out the new web. When OWL surfaced with problems a couple months ago, it was said that there may be other cockroaches. The kitchen light was turned on in the middle of the night and look at all the cockroaches running everywhere. La Cucaracha. Private equity down the tubes..... la, la, la..... This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2/24/26 at 4:19 AM EST: European banks are soggy today. The European private equity firms are stinking up the joint. EQT crashes -26% so far this year. CVC Capital collapses -16% this year; Bridgepoint -16%. Other European equity firms include Hg, Nordic Capital, Permira, Ardian, Investcorp, Cinven, IK Partners, Naxicap Partners and Partners Group. How do red accounting numbers look to all of you? Can you say contagion? Or is it still on simmer not yet boiling?

Note Added 2/24/26 at 9:33 AM EST: DB downgrades OWL to 10 bucks. Thank you Captain Obvious. A timely downgrade after everyone already lost their money. Deutsche Bank is leading from behind.

Note Added 2/24/26 at 11:51 AM EST: Fitch reports and warns that private credit default-rates are on the rise. 

Note Added 2/25/26 at 5:20 AM EST: UBS says private credit default rates are rising to 15% (from 13%; typically at the 3% to 6% range). The grim UBS forecast adds fuel to the AI disruption and fear talk. Saba Capital's Boaz Weinstein proclaims, "All you need is the snowball to start going down the hill and it started. Blue Owl is right in the middle of that. I think we are in the super-early innings of the wheels coming off the car." Workday earnings are released last evening and WDAY is bludgeoned -9% in the premarket. Their suite of financial management applications are not viewed as sweet. Can AI do all this stuff? Workday has its work cut out for itself today. In the most important news about the AI story, with the luster coming off the AI rose, clients of SAP are questioning if the AI tools offered are worth the money. If they are questioning, it means the AI garbage at this stage is not worth it for companies. Maybe it is best to wait a year or two until better applications are provided but this thinking will be the death nail to the AI-associated stocks. There is lots of drama ahead. AI stands for "as if" as if AI will ever justify the billions upon billions spent already. All this AI garbage to make and doom scroll unlimited garbage short videos. 

Note Added 3/3/26: BX drops -3% in the pre-market on news that its fund is getting hit with redemptions. Blackstone puffs its chest out and says there is plenty of dough to handle redemptions in fact they will allow more to occur to prove they are not worried. Meanwhile, the executives are under the conference room table in the fetal position. Blue Owl is getting blacklisted and blamed by everyone, including other private credit companies, for starting the AI and private credit negativity. OWL falls -4% in the pre-market to 10.29. Yesterday's low was 10.08.