SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; US Monthly Jobs Report 2/11/26

The big day is here. You can hear the calliope so the US Monthly Jobs Report circus is back in town. The jobs number was supposed to be released on Friday but the incompetent jackasses in government and at the BLS had to wait 5 more days to assemble the information. In Keystone's day, it was American excellence or you lost your job; nowadays American mediocrity is good enough. It is now a nation of 'that's good enough' lazy b*stards.

The labor recession that started 9/8/23 is now almost 2-1/2 years along. Here is a link to the latest labor recession chart and analysis on what to expect today. The unemployment rate matters. A big jump higher in the rate will signal economic pain but stocks may rally since more Fed easy money will be printed to protect America's wealthy class. A move lower in the unemployment rate signals a stronger labor picture than expected and may cause stocks to pull back since the Federal Reserve will take away the easy money punch bowl that enriches the wealthy have's. The wages also matter since they feed into inflation.

The week has been on hold awaiting the jobs numbers out in about 4 hours and the regular US trading session begins in about 5 hours. Futures are up now but that is meaningless with the jobs drama on tap. Donnie and Bibi are meeting today in Washington, DC, to discuss Iran so this will serve as today's presidential reality television show episode. King Donnie told the Iranians to keep protesting because Help Is on the Way. Sure it is. Iranians were not dumb. They went home instead of getting gunned down in the street waiting for Trumpski to help; it is like waiting for Godot, ask Ukraine.

Dufus phony Donnie will help Iran like he helped Ukraine. In other words, Trumpski will do nothing unless there is something in it for him personally such as a foothold in future real estate projects in Russia or receiving media acclaim for an action in Iran. King Donnie is all about putting on a daily media show so a strike may occur on Iran in the hours ahead because tomorrow is Lincoln's Birthday. Also, it may catch Iran off guard because they may think nothing will happen for a few more days because Bibi is in Wahington, DC. Then the orange head will proclaim that he stopped another war and he did it on Lincoln's Birthday. Isn't it nauseating?

Anyhoo, nothing's changed with the charts. The stock market is a bloated piece of excrement that should already be making its way far lower. Each negative divergence spankdown is stick-saved with happy talk or weak data that will encourage more rate cuts (easy money that is pumped into the stock market making the rich more filthy rich). It does not change the technical negativity. It is like putting off the trip to the dentist. The drill awaits you it does not matter if you put off the appointment for another week.

The red rising wedge pattern is bearish and very ominous. A huge drop would be expected from the pattern and this started last time but once again was stick-saved at the 100-day MA support at 6806. Price also violated the lower band so the middle band was in play and that occurred super quick with the Friday orgy. There is no reason for price to come back up. Blow on it and it should fall down the cellar steps and break its neck. This is why the jobs number is key; it may be the last obstacle in the bear path. We will know shortly.

The red lines show the enduring negative divergence that wants price to make its way lower. The SPX has been moving through 6500-7000 for nearly a half-year. A lousy 7%-ish range of up and down choppy slop. Doesn't it feel like the stock market is in the stratosphere right now when all it has been doing is chopping through slop for the last half year now at the top of the 7% range?

The blue circles show distribution taking place and it is quite a sight when it is called out. The smart money is passing on shares to the dumb money (you) as their surrogates appear on television every day telling you to buy, buy, buy! It is called pump and dump, sucka's. The ADX shows that the last time there was a sliver of verification that the stock market is in a strong trend higher was back in late September early October and that was short-lived. Despite record highs, the stock market is NOT in a strong trend higher.

Note that the Aroon negative cross occurred. Now it is a bigtime battle and the bulls must reverse the cross or there will be trouble ahead. Back in October the negative cross occurred but the bulls quickly saved the day. Will they do it again now or will they clutch their chest and fall over asking for an ambulance?

The chart is a piece of garbage. Ditto the SPX weekly chart. Sentiment remains excessively euphorically bullish and complacent also identifying a major top. Let's see what the BLS bozo's have to offer this morning with the jobs report. Workin' for a Livin'. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2/12/26 at 5:00 AM EST: The jobs number is better than expected at 130K jobs. The unemployment rate drops to 4.3% and does not spike higher. This means the Fed rate cuts are pushed off further into the future so this easy money, manna from heaven, will not flow directly into to the stock market enriching the wealthy class to new riches, thus, stocks sell off. Keybot the Quant flips to the bear side yesterday but the robot has been flip-flopping this year long and short as the trendless choppy slop in the market continues. The quant calls out VIX 17.24 as a key bull/bear line in the sand. Price was above yesterday creating stock market negativity. Right now, in real-time, the VIX is at 17.26 teasing this level for the last hour. The bulls know that it is mandatory that they pull the VIX below 17.24, otherwise, stocks are going to sell off. Wages rose in the jobs report so that will add to further inflation concerns. Inflation will not increase if wages do not increase, so again, higher wages steer the Fed away from cutting rates. After the Fed's easy money parade started in late 2008, when Bushtard said he had to destroy capitalism to save it, as he handed the keys to the Oval Office to Emperor Obama, Wall Street has been worried about inflation (Fed money-printing creates inflation). The reason inflation was not a worry from 2009 to the 2020's is because wages did not rise any significant amount. The boss gave you a token raise each year, patted you on the head, and told you to get back into that cubicle and get back to work. That story was over after wages started rising and inflation has been a worry since the Biden debacle during the COVID-19 pandemic (he waged war against the US energy complex for the sake of glorified golf carts (EV's), and encouraged obscene Fed monetary stimulus and Congressional fiscal stimulus that handed out checks to Americans telling them to lay around at home and watch television) that sent inflation to the moon. The VIX 17.24 level will tell you if the bears got game. Bulls have no hope going forward unless they push VIX below 17.24. For the next jobs report on 3/6/26, the US labor recession will continue if the unemployment rate remains at 4.3% but the first sign that a labor recovery is beginning, after a 2-/12 year labor recession, will occur if the rate drops to 4.2%. The jobs report in March is bigtime important to see if the US labor recession will end. Fed Chairman Powell is doing cartwheels in the halls of the Eccles Building. His term ends in May so all he has is the March meeting and the end of April meeting that will be the farewell meeting where he can leave everything to the new guy (Warsh). So that only leaves the March meeting and with the jobs data, he can let the rates stay on hold. He is cruising into retirement and doing a few shots of booze to celebrate out of a bottle that he keeps in the lower drawer of his mahogany desk. The calliope is in the garage getting cleaned-up and tuned-up to provide circus music for the next jobs report.

Note Added Friday the 13th at 5:48 AM EST: Stocks drop yesterday and the chart above shows how price came up for the textbook back kiss, or back test, at the lower rail of the triangle, and then collapsed to 6833. The 100-day MA is 6811. Price bounced from the 100 five days ago when it looked like it was end times. The SPX is so close to that critical support again that it will have to show the 100 some respect and touch it, and make a bounce or die decision. Obviously, if the SPX loses 6811, she is going to go down a long ways. Stocks are typically buoyant going into a 3-day holiday weekend.

Note Added Saturday, 2/14/26: The bears came to play with their chests puffed out and drove the SPX south to 6794.55 out of the gate to make a statement. The 100-day MA at 6811-6812 fails. But before you could blink, the buy-the-dip crowd were tripping over each other buying any stock with a heartbeat. The 100-day MA is bigtime support. You will know it is lights-out for stocks for a long time when it fails. So price rallies feeling the joyful buoyancy that typically appears before a 3-day holiday weekend. But during the afternoon, stocks roll over and die. The SPX drops to 6821 only 10 points from the gates of Hell, but alas, the bulls recover and end the day, and week at 6836. The 100-day MA is 6812. Who will win? The drama begins again on Tuesday, or probably Monday evening, if markets are moving due to King Donnie's actions over the weekend.