Copper and utilities took the pipe on Friday that caused the US stock market to drive off the cliff. Utilities play a key role in the week ahead. Remember, the two important metrics for utes are the closing price 15 weeks ago and the 50-week MA now at 994.05.
When both of these give-way to the downside, a trap-door opens and the stock market is flushed down the toilet a la Friday. This is serious business because up until Friday, the utilities had not yet failed. Since the utes did not yet fail, it tells you that the stock market should begin a relief rally any time and it likely has legs higher, but the utes then do fail on Friday. Two kids are playing with sticks and Mom yells that yinz will poke each other's eyes out. Well, Friday, little Sammy Stock Market got his eyeball poked-out.
The blue circle shows the 15-wk MA lookback comparison number for the week ahead; 987.26. For the week of 4/14/25, the 987.26 is meaningless and replaced with 1002.25 the purple circle. For the week of 4/21/25, the 1002.25 is meaningless and replaced with 972.25 the brown circle, and so on.
Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot; that is why we are never invited to the fun parties A Million Miles Away from boring calculations that turn minds to mush. Humorously, once you understand advanced math and physics in detail and depth, your brain is twisted into something that is never the same as it used to be. Thus, the 987.26 number is key for the days ahead. Write it on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. The 50-wk MA is also key at 994+.
Let's put together a scenario. Since utes are the last metric that collapsed into bear price action on Friday, it would likely be the first to reverse. Two numbers provide three spaces so you can see how the day/week will shape-up based on the utilities. If UTIL remains below 987.26, the US stock market is toast and the pain, misery and carnage will continue. Short-sellers will dance over the graves of the greedy bulls in the glistening moonlight. There is no hope for US stocks if UTIL remains below 987.26 in the week ahead.
If UTIL regains 987.26, the stock market will stabilize and at least stop going down. If UTIL moves above 994, the relief rally for the stock market will likely be underway. Snap-back rallies can be super sharp, fast, strong, and rip a short-sellers face right off. As shorts scramble to cover, they add jet fuel to any relief rally that occurs launching it into the stratosphere.
Three choices. Pick your poison. She was Poison in the Well, and I drank it. Watch utilities like a hawk on Monday. They will tell you a lot. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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