USD US Dollar Index Daily and Weekly Charts; Dollar Smile; Daily Chart Set-Up with Possie D

There is lots of attention on the dollar during the Trump Stock Market Crash induced by the Trump Trade and Tariff War. The big drama currently is the bounce or die decision at the 200-week MA at 102.61. USD price is at 102.48 in real-time. The battle continues. Obviously, dollar bulls want the 200 support to hold while the dollar bears want the 200 to fail opening the door to a far lower dollar.

The weekly and monthly charts for the greenback do not tell a lot. Price is stumbling sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night. There is no predictive value showing in those time frames.

The daily time frame, however, is set-up with positive divergence (green lines). As the year started, the red lines show the rising red wedge pattern (bearish) and the glaring negative divergence. The dollar top and neggie d spankdown was an easy call.

After three months of dollar weakness, the green lines show possie d setting-up for all the chart indicators so she is on the launchpad and fueling-up for a pop higher. The RSI is coming off oversold levels another positive for price moving forward.

The ADX pink box shows that the strong trend higher in the dollar, during the AI orgy and perceived good times in the market and economy, ended in late January. The dollar is now in a strong down trend since the first week of March as the pink box shows. The ADX shows a higher high but it is a lagging and confirmation indicator; not predictive.

The Aroon is comical. Nearly 100% of the dollar bears (red line) believe that the dollar will continue lower forever. At the same time, the green line shows that 100% of the bulls also believe that the dollar will go down forever. That's funny. The Aroon provides a contrarian signal. The boat is completely loaded with bulls and bears alike all on one side of the dollar boat expecting the buck to continue lower. You know what will happen instead.

Thus, the dollar should rally in the daily time frame going forward receiving the possie d rocket launch. The weekly and monthly time frames remain sideways, however, so after a rally in the dollar on the daily basis, price will likely continue chopping sideways through the year.

Keystone does not have any positions in the dollar long or short currently but obviously, a quickie trade going forward would be long the dollar due to the set-up on the daily chart. Watch that 200-wk MA at 102.61 since it will tell you if the gloom scenario occurs. The dollar climbs to 102.74 as Keystone writes this message. Money by Floyd. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:38 AM EST: USD 103.05. 

Note Added 8:00 PM EST: USD 103.52. 

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/8/25, at 5:39 AM EST: USD 103.35. 

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/9/25, at 3:25 AM EST: USD 102.29. The buck comes back down to test the 200-wk MA at 102.61 again. Bounce or die. Price comes down for a matching low and the indicators remain possie d in the daily time frame. Obviously, the news coming across the wires continuously and Donnie Trump's Trade and Tariff War create daily drama.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: The dollar starts the day soggy dropping to 101.84, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so the greenback catapults higher to 103.31 now at 103-ish. Wild day in the markets.

Note Added Friday Morning, 4/11/25: Dollar collapses through one hundo to 99.39 now about a -3% drop off the 103 a substantive move for a currency. Donnie Trump's Trade and Tariff War is wreaking havoc in markets. The dollar down and long yields up is rare. The euro runs higher to 1.14. Euro up, dollar down. The daily chart is pricing in the tariff drama and will need a day or two to set-up and maintain the possie d for a bounce in the daily time frame, albeit that it will occur from a lower price due to the Donnie drama. Price is at the bottom of the 3-year sideways channel so the bounce or die decision at this 99-100 area is critical for the future. If the orange head keeps his mouth shut for a couple days, good luck with that, the daily chart's possie d should help the dollar recover next week. Trump is causing wild price action in markets.