SPX Weekly Chart; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

Here is the important S&P 500 weekly chart that has been developing negative divergence. Is it soup yet? The chart looks like chop suey. It looks like Christmas with the greens and reds that are complimentary colors, like purple/yellow and blue/orange; that is why you see sports teams with these color schemes. Anyhoo, the SPX daily chart received a spankdown due to the neggie d and the weekly chart helped last week's weakness in the daily time frame.

The jury is in. Price makes the matching or higher high the week before last and all the indicators are neggie d (sloping down as price moves higher). This is the kiss of death and price drops for the last 2 weeks. Money flow is playing coy, flatter than a newlywed's souffle, so it may still try to sneak higher if the bulls can keep volatility low and pump stocks higher to begin the week. Dip-buyers are anxious to reenter the market giving the money flow the flattish profile. Overall, the chart is cooked and forecasting far lower prices ahead on the weekly basis.

Good news from the Federal Reserve or others may save the day but the expectation is that a multi-week down move has started. The rising wedge is a bearish pattern. The stochastics and RSI are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The red lines show the neggie d at play that wants to smack price lower.

The upper standard deviation band is violated so the middle band, also the 20-wk MA at 4303, is on the table and also the lower band at 3985 and rising sharply. Some analysts are getting cold feet over the last few weeks and scaling back their euphoric bullish talk. They are pointing to 4300 as a potential downside target so that may hint that stocks are going far lower.

The Aroon shows that the euphoric bullishness remains in place and the 2-week pullback has done nothing to dent bullish confidence and complacency. The green bullish Aroon line is near 100% so almost all of the stock market bulls remain uber bullish waiting to buy dips. The red bearish line is near 0% so almost all of the bears also remain bullish. A negative Aroon cross is out in the future somewhere, maybe in only a week or two, and that would confirm the carnage occurring in the stock market.

The ADX shows that the stock market crash in 2022 was a strong trend lower (pink box) but that strong trend ended late last year. The stock market rally was on the verge of receiving confirmation that it is a strong trend higher but alas, the last couple weeks the ADX is flat and rolling over so the rally may never achieve strong trend status.

The week ahead is pivotal. Keybot the Quant algorithm is short but champing at the bit to go long. VIX 15.63 is telling the market story. Stocks will rally if the VIX remains below 15.63 but selling will enter the picture if the VIX moves above 15.63.

The Hawaii fire tragedy is horrific and like California wild fires, due to a-hole politicians and ecological freaks that refuse to clear-cut land to create firebreaks. The result is lots of humans dead and property damage. Give the idiot people what they want until they realize they are stupid. Maui Waui. Lots of souls were cremated in the fire. There will probably be a few skulls and thigh bones remaining and the hard task to identify those remains will begin. All those souls are welcome into the loving arms of Big Iz. It is a shame that many folks cannot get back to their houses as yet even though all that awaits them is gray ashes and more tears. They're just trying to find a way home, like Joan sings. God Bless all the Hawaiian folks. Donate to the reputable organizations helping them. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.