NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40 MA that Dictates Cyclical Bear and Bull Markets

The NYA will tell the story going forward. Traders and investors remain complacent and fearless sipping Fed wine and Congressional champagne while tasting AI caviar. A few of the bullish party-goers, however, are starting to feel sick about being quadruple leveraged long on full margin. Stocks are selling off in recent days as Keystone explained ahead of time with the neggie d.

Traders are wiping beads of sweat from foreheads wondering if the calls for no recession and SPX 5,000 in the months ahead may become fantasy. The NYA 40-week MA cross is one of Keystone's key metrics in determining if stocks are in a cyclical (weeks and months) bull or bear market. Obviously, if the NYA is above the 40, the US stock market is in a cyclical bull market pattern. If the NYA loses the 40, a cyclical bear market begins. Forget that jackass -20% metric rookies use to gauge a bear market.

The chart shows the bear market begins as Baby New Year welcomes in 2022. Price back kisses the 40-wk MA in late March 2022 to make a bounce or die decision, and it dies. The cyclical bear growls for all of last year into the Fall. In late October early November 2022, as turkeys begin running for their lives with Thanksgiving Day approaching, the NYA overcomes the 40-wk MA signaling a cyclical bull market ahead.

Price back kisses the 40 at Christmastime last year to make a bounce or die decision and bounces, jumping higher forecasting a bull market ahead as this year begins. Stocks collapse in March due to the regional banking crisis but then quickly recover back above the 40 signaling that the bull market remains in tact. The Federal Reserve stepped in to save the day for the rich Americans as it always does in the corrupt crony capitalism system.

So, 'still here we are', as Bob sings, wondering what happens next. The NYA 40-wk MA cross will tell you the answer. If the 40-week MA at 15564 fails, the stock market is in a heap of trouble as a new cyclical bear market begins. If the bulls can hold the support at the 40 MA, the dip-buyers will enter in force and keep the stock market turd floating a little bit longer.

The drop needed to breach the 40-wk MA is 170 points lower or -1.1% so this is the magic number. Pay attention to it so you can gauge the path ahead for the US stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:04 AM EST: The NYA drops at the open to 15626 only 62 points from pain and misery at the 40-week MA at 15564. Price recovers and the NYA is at 15728. Nothing to see here, move along, nothing to see here, move along.

Note Added Saturday, 8/19/23: The NYA ends the week at 15750. The 40-week MA is 15564 so the cyclical bull market remains in tact, for now. The stock market battle continues. Time to call in the Seven Nation Army.