SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; SPX Prints New All-Time Record High at 3872

What's going on here? The thinking was that there would be a top before munch time. The SPX 2-hour chart shows the upside spurt this morning. Traders appear content in waiting for the Monthly Jobs Report at 8:30 AM EST only 20 hours away.

Wheeee! Whooopie! Whheeee! Woo-hoo! The SPX continues this week's orgy printing at 3860. The all-time record high is 3870.90 on 1/26/21 and all-time record closing high is 3855.36 on 1/5/21. Today will be a new all-time closing high if it holds. As Timbuk 3 says, the future's so bright, you gotta wear shades.

The SPX fills the orange gap; there are lots of gaps below that will need filled. Price makes the matching high so the indicators can be assessed and they are all neggie d sans the MACD (green line) that remains long and strong. So the only remaining fuel to drive price higher is the MACD. Traders may be waiting for the jobs data but for what? Good report, bad report; report, schmort.

The SPX weekly chart is topped-out with neggie d so down is the path ahead. There would have to be some real orgy news overnight tonight to boost stocks. Will the political thieves announce a fiscal stimulus agreement?

Once the MACD goes neggie d above, the top is in. Note that over the last month the MACD is neggie d so that can take over and smack price lower at anytime. One jog move may be needed, a down-up, to give time for the MACD to then go neggie d and call the top, so that would occur anytime between now and two candlesticks, which is 4 hours. There is three hours remaining in today so the top is this afternoon, if not, it will occur tomorrow morning after the opening bell.

Take a look at the 1-hour, that is cooked. Ditto 30-minute. The 2-hour chart above is topping out right now probably anytime ahead this afternoon. If you call the high today a matching high to the prior high, which is permissible, the SPX daily chart is topped out with neggie d. The SPX weekly is neggie d. This is exciting. You are watching the conception of a top in real-time right now. You must be peaking through a fogged-up window.

The bulls continue parading across the television and internet screens 24/7. Renaissance Macro permabull Neil Dutta proclaims blue skies and rainbows ahead. Dutta decrees, "We're going to have a great year." WFC's Chris Harvey tells clients to rotate into small caps. Name any analyst and he or she will be bullish. Big Iz always sang about sunshine and positivity but he's dead.

There are no bears remaining on Wall Street. Someone said they spotted a bear the other day but it was mistaken identity. The guy was a bull but he was going to a costume party and wearing the fur suit as a gag; something for everyone to laugh at and make fun of at the never-ending bull party. The bulls are on one side of the boat laughing and having a good time doing shots of BOJ sake and smoking ECB crack.

Jobless Claims are 780K and people celebrate that they beat the estimate at 820K. That is like seeing your mansion burn to the ground but you are happy that you at least saved your 1971 rust-bucket Chevy Vega out of the garage.

The SPX is up +0.7% at 3858. VIX 22.22. Wheee! Woo-hoo! Uncle Spu is up on the high dive, only donning a beard and Speedo's, drunk as a skunk off Fed wine. Powell is yelling at him not to jump. Ho, no, easy, take it easy. Spu is staggering from side to side and yelling that stocks go up forever and he is invincible so he can fly, too. Spu is threatening to jump with his foot dangling over the side. He yells, if pigs can fly, so can I! Powell and Yellen realize the horrors they have created after 12 years of obscene Keynesian money-printing. They hang their heads in shame but it is too late. The financial experiment that started with Bernanke in March 2009 is spinning out of control and about to blow-up in the laboratory.

So the stage is set. This afternoon should prove interesting. Ditto overnight. The Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long and is tracking copper and volatility so keep an eye on them for clues. Let's see if the bears can spank it south before the closing bell. A new candlestick starts at 2 PM which will help gauge the MACD status.

We may be about to witness something very special over the next couple weeks. The top is so close you can smell it. Do you smell it? No, not that smell, that must be Keystone, can you smell the top, the top? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:18 PM EST: Bulls are gunning for the new all-time high. SPX is at 3861. Bulls need another 9 points. VIX 22.14. Interesting. A divergence. Above you can see the SPX coming up for the matching high now threatening a new all-time high but the VIX is not yet at the prior low at the 21.12 palindrome. Considering today's orgy, the VIX should be down to 20-21 right now. VIX 22.16. SPX 3862.

Note Added 2:07 PM EST: Wheeee! Whoopie! The SPX prints the HOD at 3864.55 only 5 points from the all-time record high. VIX 22.12. Copper -0.5%.

Note Added 2:58 PM EST: Wheeee! Whoopie! President Biden speaks. The SPX prints the HOD at 3864.81 still only 5 points from the all-time record high. VIX is 22.01 about to print a 21-handle. Bulls are getting pumped up. VIX 22.00. SPX 3863.

Note Added 3:05 PM EST: VIX 21.99. SPX 3863.

Note Added Friday Morning, 2/5/21, at 2:58 AM EST: The bulls keep stocks elevated into the Monthly Jobs Report only 5-1/2 hours away. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3872.42 yesterday the highest print in the history of the stock market. The SPX also prints a new all-time closing high at 3871.74 on Thursday, 2/4/21. The VIX begins trading today above 22 at 22.03. VIX prints a 21-handle yesterday dropping down to 21.68 during the bull orgy. This VIX 21.68 support number is important today and next week. S&P futures are up +8. Both futures and vol are up so one of them is wrong. On the SPX 2-hour, the indicators are in neggie d across the board. The MACD continues sloping-up in the very near-term (minutes and hours) showing momentum but it is neggie d over the last month. The SPX can squeeze out a candlestick or more of elevated prices in the 2-hour time frame but the index would be expected to roll over at anytime. Of course the jobs report is imminent and may send markets wildly in one direction or the other. Charts will have to absorb that data when it hits. If the jobs number is weak, say flat or negative, that will probably be good news since the Fed and Congress will have to keep providing easy money which will send stocks higher. The way the charts are set up, however, additional upside joy in stocks should be short-lived (a few days or week of so). If the number is robust with 200K and higher jobs, similar to pre-pandemic levels, and especially big numbers like 500K or more, that would probably be bad news for stocks since Congress will have a tougher row to hoe in passing fiscal stimulus and the Fed will think about paring back on monetary stimulus. The bulls managed to keep the stock market elevated into the numbers but the news probably will not matter and stocks would be expected to top-out now and drop. The SPX daily chart displays the new record price high with all the indicators negatively diverged. There is no gas in the tank for sustained upside on the daily basis although this week's momentum continues playing out. The SPX weekly chart is in universal negative divergence so the top is in on the weekly basis and a multi-week decline in stocks should begin at anytime. What's that? Do you hear it? Here they come! The jobs circus is back in town led by the BLS band. Can you hear the calliope?.

Note Added Friday Morning, 2/5/21, at 6:18 AM EST: Whheeee! Whoopie! Woo-hoo! The Senate approves a budget resolution lighting the way to fiscal stimulus easy money. S&P futures are up +21 and the VIX drops to 21.72. Futures were correct since vol has turned negative. The VIX is teasing yesterday's key LOD at 21.68. Volatility may park itself here until the BLS brings the tablets down from on high in 2 hours and tells global traders how to trade. Stocks will rally into the weekend if the VIX goes sub 21.68 trending lower. If futures remain positive and joyful, but the VIX does not take out 21.68, futures, and stocks, will likely turn around and sell off. 10-year yield 1.15%.