By K E Stone (Keystone)
Global citizens are feeling more optimistic about the
pandemic in recent days. A great Negro spiritual comes to mind as the active
cases charts around the world flatten and roll over to create the bell shape
and signal that the virus is on the run; “Good News, Chariot’s A Comin’, GoodNews.” Earthlings hope the good news is coming and continues.
On the dark side, the new variants are hiding in the bushes
and countries must remain vigilant for the faster-spreading mutations. The
South Africa variant B1351 is more deadly than the original strain. Several
countries such as France, Belgium and Malaysia remain COVID-19 hotspots. The
Superbowl (American football championship game) was two days ago which may
become a superspreader event out of Tampa, Florida.
Over 107 million people have been infected with COVID-19
around the world. A virus defeated the aliens in the H G Wells classic “War of
the Worlds” after every human attempt to combat the extraterrestrial force
failed. Perhaps coronavirus will decide on its own if it wants to bring the
world further to its knees, or, if it perhaps decides to simply diminish and
drift away. In the meantime, humans build a resistant force against coronavirus
with the vaccinations. Time is of the essence.
Over 2.35 million people have died from coronavirus around
the world. 79 million have recovered so 74% of the people that are infected with
covid on the planet recover in a reasonable time period; 3 out of every 4
people that contract covid recover. 1 in 4 have lingering effects from the
Wuhan Flu. 2.2% of the people that are infected with covid on earth will die; on
average, 1 in every 46 people that are infected with the Wuhan Flu will die.
The CCP (China’s dirtbag communist leadership) have developed an extremely
effective bioweapon they released upon the world.
Coronavirus was perhaps a virus developed by China to cull
the elderly population to remove them as a financial burden upon the state.
China may have also desired an effective virus to release in Hong Kong and
quell the ongoing social unrest. You see what happened there. The Hong Kong
protests are gone and forgotten and the young people involved are in mainland
prisons for torture and involuntary organ donation. Hong Kong is just another
dirtbag communist city now so the virus did the trick for the filthy CCP. The
virus improves the future and solvency of the United States Social Security
system as well since so many elderly folks have perished.
The WHO is stumbling around Wuhan in a dog and pony show
pretending they are searching for the origination of the coronavirus over one
year ago. The other day WHO proclaimed that they are sampling the toilets and
air ducts. What a joke. A press conference is expected as early as today to
present their findings.
As this article is typed, the CPP and WHO parade arrives
right on cue. WHO declares that the coronavirus did not originate from the Wuhan
Laboratory? Pause for laughter. Of course they do; that is the purpose of the
trip. It is obvious why the WHO lackeys went to Wuhan. The Chinese communist
party wanted to erase the world’s memory about the Wuhan Lab and the negative
connotations. That’s not going to happen. The pandemic is the China Virus or
Wuhan Virus if you prefer. Of course the filthy CCP does not tell you that
there are actually two bioweapons laboratories in Wuhan not just the one
visited for the photo-op show. Are you an idiot that actually believes the
lying communists? Of course you don’t.
The CCP and WHO lay in bed together, their toes comingling,
as evidenced by their collusion one year ago. On 1/14/20, the two partners in
crime told the world that coronavirus is nothing to fear. Dirtbag Dictator Xi
said there is no person-to-person transmission. He is a murderous lying
bastard. The bodies were stacking up at hospitals and morgues. The incinerators
began burning bodies 24/7 the putrid smell filling the city streets. China was imprisoning
and killing their own doctors that tried to warn the Chinese citizens and the
world that the virus is dangerous and out of control. Chinese officials
directed computer hackers to persecute the outspoken doctors on the internet
and chat boards and destroy their reputations. What kind of filth kills a knowledgeable
doctor/s that could only help humanity?
Dictator Xi then locks the Wuhan region down early last year
and purchases every available mask and PPE product available around the world. The
WHO told the world not to worry about coronavirus while the situation in Wuhan
was far more tragic than anyone knows. Would you ever trust communist China that
screwed you like that? And screwed the world? China has to pay for their
bioterrorism but the world has to get back on its feet first.
Interestingly, the Chinese Lunar holiday is at hand an
extremely busy travel period. Remember last year? Dirtbag Dictator Xi allowed
infected people to freely board airplanes and fly around the world infecting
the planet with COVID-19. At the same time, China went into lockdown while
hoarding all PPE supplies available in the world. With friends like that who
needs enemies? It was a crime against humanity and bioterrorism was unleashed
upon planet earth by Xi who leads the death cult CCP.
Another observation. China has locked down the holiday this
year permitting only extremely limited travel. The communists have been
bragging for the last few months how everything in Wuhan and elsewhere on the
mainland is completely back to normal. China says the mask mandates are lifted
and if anyone wears a mask it is only because they want to by their own choice.
If the CCP is buttoning-down this holiday, it tells you that things may not be
as normal as they are portrayed and the virus may still be proving a challenge
for China. The birth rate is dropping by double-digits in China; would you want
to bring a child into that sick CCP-controlled world? Many Chinese folks say
no.
In America, coronavirus cases are approaching 28 million.
There are 480K deaths but by the time another paragraph or two is written more
will be added. The death tally does not stop; it keeps ticking higher like the
national debt clock. 17.5 million Americans have recovered so 63% of the
citizens infected with covid recover in a reasonable time period; 3 out of
every 5 people that contract covid recover. 2 in 5 Americans have lingering
effects from the Wuhan Flu which is not good. It does not help that Americans
are overweight and the people with lingering covid problems are likely the
obese folks.
Doctors and nurses have been commenting lately how the
infections and hospitalizations are decreasing but the patients sick with covid
are remaining ill longer. 1.7% of the Americans infected with covid will die. On
average, 1 in every 58 people that are infected with the Wuhan Flu will die.
Interestingly, the world recovers from covid at a better rate than the US,
probably due to stronger immunity systems and better control of their weight,
however, the death rate is worse in the rest of the world as compared to
America, and this is likely due to the level of care received.
Sick patients die in hospital hallways in countries such as
Brazil completely overwhelmed and overran by the pandemic. Sick patients in
America at least have a fighting chance. Judging by the American physiques on
display in hospitals and ICU’s, no one has been missing any meals, and that
gluttony compromises their ability to fight off the killer covid.
The vaccine talk is all the rage these days. President Biden
says herd immunity may be difficult to attain. That is correct as these ongoing
coronavirus articles have been highlighting. COVID-19 is a tough nut to crack.
You can reference the prior Article 32 for the simple math behind the herd
immunity and vaccination numbers.
Recapping, America needs 78% of the population to have
antibodies to slow and stop the spread of coronavirus. The doctors and
scientists will quote a range from 70% to 90% for herd immunity, obviously the
higher the better, and 100% antibodies in society means the virus is 100%
defeated. The 78% is mid-range.
About 15% of the American population has been infected with
covid, many asymptomatically, so they have antibodies. This leaves 63% of the
population that will need vaccinated to achieve herd immunity (63% vaccinated +
15% covid-infected = 78% herd immunity). However, referencing prior vaccine
roll-out data, 10% of the population will probably not return for the second
shot. This will require 73% of the population to be vaccinated (63% + 10%).
There are 330 million people in the US so 73% is 240 million people that need
vaccinated and that corresponds to 480 million vaccine doses needed (2 per
person) if the mRNA shots are used.
The vaccination videos shown on television are over the top.
Pennsylvanians were so grateful and happy the 2020 US Election was over so the
maddening political ads would end but now they are replaced with a lot of
people getting stuck with needles. Pinch, jab, retract, bandage, roll-up,
pinch, jab, retract, bandage, the shot-givers keep time with the techno-beat of
the Musack playing in the background. Pinch the triceps flesh and stab it. Show
that teenage girl grimacing as she is jabbed.
The video of the hesitant shot-giver also runs on news
networks. The nurse pushes the needle into the arm at a slow pace moving it
side to side as it pushes deeper and deeper, micro inch by micro inch. Where
did they get this sadomasochist? Nancy, the experienced RN on duty, says the nurse
flunked out of phlebotomy training but they need all the help they can get. Tears
flow down the patients face; he is a proud man who did not want his girlfriend
to see him cry as he is vaccinated. That shot looked painful and the video is aired
over and over, and over, again.
There is too much film of the actual vaccine shots shown on
the news shows. The endless pain videos are scaring skittish people away. Common
folks do not receive the vaccine shot stoically, as does the doctors and nurses
that try to prove to everyone that the injection is not a big deal. No Siree. As
the needle breaks the skin, people are grimacing, flinching, showing wide eyes;
this is not a good way to encourage hesitant people. Some folks are simply more
sensitive to pain than others. The vaccines are no biggie from a pain
perspective; it is just another shot.
If a person is hesitant about vaccines but is willing to
perhaps set their fear aside and take the shot, nurture the person to the
vaccination site, do not chase them away with endless videos showing Nurse
Marquis de Sade administering the shots with a crazed look in her eye. People
do not need to see the actual jabs; they get the picture of what is going on at
the vaccination sites without absorbing another face grimace. The public is
sick of watching 200 people vaccinated on television every day, about 150 are
the same people shown over and over on the same video reel, needle after
needle.
Various vaccination trackers show 32.3 million people
receiving at least one dose of vaccine while 9.5 million are fully vaccinated
with two doses. Thus, 10 million of the 240 million people that need vaccinated
are now protected (4%) and another 22 million in 3 weeks (3/2/21) which will be
32 million of the 240 million (13%) with both doses.
If Labor Day, 9/6/21, is the goal to achieve herd immunity,
there or sooner, it is 209 days away. Thus, another 230 million people need
vaccinated, 460 million shots, in this 209-day time frame. This is 1.1 million
people per day or 2.2 million doses per day vaccination rate. The US has got to
administer over 2 million doses per day to reach herd immunity by late summer a
formidable task. The J&J and Novavax vaccines would help bigtime and actual
make the goal doable. It is a tough slog ahead if the US has to do the heavy
lifting with the mRNA vaccines alone.
The current actual dose rate is 1.5 million doses per day.
The dose rate hit 2 million on Saturday which is great news that provides
encouragement but it is only one day and it slips lower. At the 1.5 million
doses per day rate, herd immunity would not occur for 307 days (12/13/21; Merry
Christmas). This date is unacceptable. President Biden will hit his 100 million
dose goal in 45 more days (100 less 32 is 68 million more vaccinations needed
at 1.5 million per day = 45 days) which is 3/26/21 five days before the 100-day
deadline on 4/1/21. Most folks thought the vaccine dose rate would be far
higher than it is now but everyone is doing the best they can.
Doctors are confident that there will be enough vaccine to
jab everyone that wants a shot come April and May. The mRNA vaccines face
challenges in securing the feed stock elements for the batch production
process. Pfizer has figured a way to cut their manufacturing time in half shortening
the batch production of vaccine from 110 days down to 60 days which is
excellent news.
Countries are elbowing each other out of the way to gain
access to the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccines. Nations that
manufacture the vaccine figure they should receive the bulk of the supplies
first; vaccine nationalism. This will likely not develop into too serious a
problem. The mRNA vaccines are made in small batch processes. Many people
probably envision a long assembly line spitting out vials of vaccine into huge
cardboard boxes 24/7. It’s not this.
The vaccines require starting materials and this is supplied
from companies (countries) all around the world. Nations need to cooperate
instead of cutting off supplies of one starting material or another. Nothing
good comes from everyone slitting each other’s throats. Calmer heads will have
to focus on the starting materials and animal protein supplies needed for the
mRNA batches and coordinate an honest distribution around the world for those
biopharma companies pursuing this adolescent-stage technology. Last week,
Cure-Vac CEO Franz-Werner Haas, in response to vaccine nationalization
concerns, says, “The world is a global village.”
EU President von der Leyen speaks today and talks about the
virus battle as a marathon not a sprint. She says the vaccine supplies were not
estimated that well but things are getting back on track. There was lots of drama
between nations a week ago creating vaccine nationalism angst but this is
likely not an issue. All countries know that you simply have to wait for your
vaccine shipments and then distribute them as quickly, efficiently and safely
as you can, and hope for the best. European and UK heads have cooled. The EU
head promises 70% of Europe (herd immunity) to be vaccinated by the end of the
summer. That late August early September is a key landing zone and herd immunity
deadline for all nations since the new flu and covid season begins from there forward.
This drop-dead date area is only about 200 days away.
Pass me that envelope. Okay, using the back side, scribble
446 million which is the population of the European Union. 70% is 312 million
that will need vaccinated by the end of the summer. This equates to about a 1.6
million dose per day vaccination rate which is doable by Ursula. She is a smart
cookie so she must have performed back of the envelope calculations as well.
Europe and the US are in the same boat needing a 1.6-1.7 million dose per day
rate immediately and ramp up above 2 million doses per day as soon as possible.
The best vaccine-supplied nation in the world is Canada. The
Canucks got game in securing vaccine supplies. Canada is followed by the US,
UK, Australia, EU (Europe) and Japan. The majority of the currently available
vaccines are sitting in those countries. Vietnam, India, Israel, Switzerland,
Indonesia, Latin America ex Brazil, Brazil, Egypt and Mexico are also stocked-up
with vaccine but with far lower supplies than the major nations. There are US
states continuing to complain about the shortage of available vaccines. Pharmacies and vaccination centers can service more people but the vaccine is not available. The
vaccine logistics remain a challenge in the US and around the world.
Blacks, browns, Native Americans, Latinos and other minorities are not being vaccinated at the same pace as whites. People are quick to bring up race nonsense. It is due to two simple reasons. The bulk of the healthcare folks including doctors, nurses and medics are white and they are the frontline people being vaccinated. Also, humorously, white folks are better at using the internet, tracking down doctors and vaccination sites, signing up for appointments on the internet, calling medical offices, following up for the second shot appointment and a bunch of other white-person stuff. You can laugh. It is funny and for the most part true speaking in comical generalities.
Folks of modest means do not have the same wherewithal so they are last in the vaccination line. The best approach is the pharmacies and vaccination sites as long as the people of modest means can find transportation there. Maybe shuttle busses to and from the vaccination sites is something to place on the table. Uber and Lyft are taking people to and from vaccination sites. Charitable organizations such as Meals on Wheels are also stepping up to the plate to provide rides to and from the vaccination sites. Simply renting the firehall on Main Street, or some other vacant building, and using it as a vaccination site for a month, may be a good idea since poor people can walk there. Most folks in the inner cities do not own cars.
The medical folks do not discuss what is in the vaccines and
for good reason; animal proteins, firefly luciferase (an enzyme that produces
bioluminescence to easily identify if the vaccine is in the body), other
tracers, mercury (Thimerosal), nano particles and other paraphernalia may or may not be inside the concoction. Although
this information makes you take pause and wonder, the doctors, nurses and
scientists involved in the vaccines joyfully and confidently roll-up their
sleeves and receive the jab without losing their smiles. Thus, they do eat
their own cooking, which says something. The majority of medical people are willing to take the mRNA and other vaccines without worry.
Everyone has to make their own decision about taking the
vaccine. J&J decrees that people may need an annual covid vaccine shot
every year for the next several years (and Johnny John will no doubt be happy
to supply the vaccines; ka-ching). The vaccine doses made available over the
next month or two will be enthusiastically received by people with their
sleeves already rolled-up. After the May time period, however, there may be
plenty of vaccine available but people not willing to come forward for the jab.
Companies and countries are contemplating or already
implementing vaccine incentives. Grocery stores are offering incentives such as
$100 of store credit if the employees take the shot. Target is offering free
transportation and extra bumps in pay if willing to take the vaccine. Dollar
stores and discount grocers are offering four hours of pay for employees. Cheap
skates. Give them at least $100 you greedy bastards.
Airlines and restaurants are also offering incentives. Tell
your boss to double whatever the offer is and they will likely do it. If an
employee, read the fine print if they want you to sign something because taking
a vaccine may diminish your rights to sue the place if you become sick from
covid.
One-third and more of the staff at nursing homes across America
are hesitant to take the vaccine. If governments want people to roll-up their
sleeves, money is the best persuader. Medical professionals will need to
remember one of the golden rules when dealing with people experiencing vaccine
hesitancy; ‘you catch more bees with honey than you do with vinegar’. Scaring
people about the virus will only chase them away. Calmly educate them so their
fears are dispelled. Explain to them why they should want to receive the
vaccine rather than barking at them to shut their mouth and take the vaccine.
The vaccine passports are another hot topic. Everyone has
said the word ‘vaccine’ over the last month more times than they have in their
entire lives. The implementation of vaccine and negative-test passports are
being considered by global governments and would be required to fly, attend
sporting events and concerts, or walk into malls or stores, or even your
workplace. Denmark, the country with the first serious virus mutation which led
to culling millions of mink, is forging ahead with the digital passport
concept.
Countries concerned about devastated economies need to
jump-start the airlines, travel, restaurant and hospitality industries and they
see vaccine, or proof of negative test, passports the way forward. Maybe for them
and their search for capitalist money, but hundreds of millions of global
citizens will refuse to take the Mark of the Beast.
IBM is developing a digital health pass that uses block
chain technology to keep track of covid tests, vaccine status and temperatures.
The tech companies are or will be in bed with the government departments that
want all that juicy individual information. Humorously, if they assess the
data, they will find the ladies are on Etsy and Facebook all day long while the
men are watching porno.
The WEF is involved in a sick ‘common pass’ project which is
a QR code that allows a traveler to go anywhere in the world since proof of
vaccines, testing and other personal information is readily available. You will
have to decide about the Beast for yourself. The CCP, PBOC, WHO, WEF,
Blackstone, investment banks, corporate executives, the wealthy elite
privileged class and politicians enjoy lustful embraces in an un-Holy circle
jerk.
President Biden is imposing mandatory mask wearing on public
transportation and requiring travelers provide proof of a negative test for
covid within three days of flying. It will create hassles for travelers but at
the same time the safety measures may jump-start the lagging sectors of the
economy.
It will be a dark and fateful day in America if vaccines are
made mandatory for travelers or to gain access to buildings or venues such as
concerts. Some employers, such as hospitals, already force workers to take
vaccines. The Mark of the Beast. That would be the bridge too far. Many folks
will simply choose to stay home rather than relinquish their soul. Every human
will have to make their own decision about the Beast over the next couple
years.
Keep taking zinc and vitamin D-3 which boosts your immune
system and may help prevent the onset of the virus. The doctors do not tell you
such inexpensive key things to do since you cannot give them money if you are
not ill. Vitamins A and C are also helpful and turmeric. All of these are great
to take regardless of covid but you can check with doc to make sure. The best
prevention is to simply stay as far away as possible from people.
So the long and short of it is that 240 million people need
vaccinated or 480 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines. 32
million vaccinations have occurred so 448 million more jabs are needed. The Labor Day Herd Immunity drop-dead date of
9/6/21 is 209 days away so the dose rate must be 2.1 million doses per day or
more to reach herd immunity before Labor Day. It Is tough sledding ahead. Biden
sees the numbers and admits the road ahead is long.
As a thought experiment, let’s pretend J&J rides in on a
white horse with 100 million doses of its conventional vaccine. The Johnny John
vaccine is a one-shot deal so that would take care of 100 million people. Thus,
taking that out of the numbers above, the US would then need 348 million jabs
of the mRNA vaccines by Labor Day which is 1.7 million doses per day. America
is close to this dose rate now. It is all doable.
The bigger worry will be in May-ish when folks will balk at
taking the vaccine. It all depends on how much green (money) or other
incentives are waved in front of their face. Every person has their price.
The original strain of coronavirus is called D614G. The UK
variant is B117. The South Africa variant is 501YV2 and now referred to as
B1351. The Brazil variant is B11248 and P1 and P2. To ease readability in the
articles, the B117, B1351 and B11248 (or P1) identifiers will be referenced.
These are simple tag numbers so reference the medical white papers if you want
to study the variants in scientific detail.
As per the CDC, there are 932 cases of the UK B117 variant
in 34 states. There are 9 cases of the South Africa B1351 strain in 3 states.
There are 3 cases of the Brazil P1 variant in 2 states. The US is finally stepping-up
the sequencing tests and genomic surveillance of the new variants but still has
a long way to go. Los Angeles County, California, reports five new cases of the
UK variant B117. The mutant strain is likely in all 50 states but our DNA
surveillance, to detect, identify and verify the new strains, is sorely lacking.
California has over 150 B117 cases and there are nearly 1,000 cases nationwide.
The new UK strain may be America’s next test.
For the US active cases chart, the positive news from the
last article continues. The Keystone Model forecasted 2/5/21 as when the chart
would peak and flatten-out and this started on 1/31/21 and continues. The US is
in good shape to roll the active cases curve over to the downside and claim
victory against the virus. There ae two more paths on the chart, however. The
brown path occurs if the Superbowl parties result in a spike in daily cases. It
was ridiculous to see over 25K people at the Superbowl. The wealthy class is
sneaky tossing 7.5K tickets to vaccinated healthcare workers so they look good and
then keeping the rest of the tickets for themselves. After the game on Sunday,
attendees flew back to all the states.
A spike in daily new cases occurred about one week after
Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s so that is a dependable data set. Thus,
the peak, if any, in daily new cases from the Superbowl par-tay’s will occur on
2/14/21, Valentine’s Day. This may delay the top in the active cases curve if
the knuckleheads are spreading disease. Valentine’s Day should not be a big
superspreader event since it will likely be a quiet night at home with honey.
Guys, remember to get your significant other a gift, even some cheap chocolates
or flowers from the garden will do, otherwise, it will not be a quiet night and
you will end up with Scruffy out in the garage.
The red line on the US active cases curve above is the worst
path forward where the Superbowl causes a spike in cases and the variants such
as B117 begin to bite hard. The US can handle those variants if it simply stays
the course. America does not have to repeat the UK’s misery. Let’s hope not.
The US daily new cases chart is shown above and it peaked on 1/8/21 at 308,035 cases. This peak targeted the 2/5/21 date for the peak in the active cases curve which is working out nicely. Doctors and scientists, however, say the UK variant B117 will become the dominant strain next month.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations prone to strictly follow government rules, the active cases curve will
peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases. China, Japan and South
Korea are in this group. Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations
are scattered across the countryside.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the free societies, or at least they are more free than most other
nations, the active cases curve will peak, on average, 28 days after the peak
in new cases. The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last year in
predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape begins to
appear to ring-in the end to coronavirus.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer or Johns-Hopkins. The Keystone Model considers
any high occurring after the peak high in daily new cases, to be the peak high,
if the high is within 8% of the peak high. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak date may be a few days after the peak high in the bar chart (if you are in
the weeds studying the information).
France’s active cases curve is shown above and it is one of
the worst coronavirus charts on the face of the earth right now. A coronavirus
hot spot is in President Macron’s kitchen. Paging President Macron! Paging
President Macron! Please tell your countrymen, and women, to put down the wine,
baguette and cigarettes and most of all, stop those orgies! No wonder the
active cases curve is out of control with all that orgy-ing going on under the
shadow of the Eiffel Tower.
The ‘orgies’ reference an 81-person sex party that was
broken-up north of Paris last week. The authorities fined the horny revelers sending
them home. No one was wearing a mask. They were not wearing anything else
either. Medical folks are concerned that the orgy may be a superspreader event,
in more ways than one. Joking aside, France has a tough row to hoe over the
next couple weeks.
Attention France; hunker down and focus from now into March. The active cases curve is projected to peak and flatten on 2/25/21 as per the Keystone Model which remains two weeks away. It is not the time to slack off. It is the time to focus intently to beat the virus.
It is obvious that the anti-vaccine sentiment in France is leading to more infections. The United States needs to watch France closely since the same path may be ahead. Since the anti-vaxxer's will typically not change their minds, countries will have to instead boost up the medical staffing and facilities to take care of the increased cases. You have to play the hand you are dealt not the hand you wish you were dealt. Any government thinking of imposing mandating vaccines needs to think about that one long and hard because it can trigger revolution.
The UK’s active cases curve is shown above and it is a happy
story the opposite of France’s sad story. The UK has flattened its active cases
curve so that is reason to celebrate. The Brit’s have been through a lot over
the last two months. Stay the course UK and you have a far brighter path ahead.
You will start to notice the patient load become far easier for your healthcare
personnel.
The UK says the Pfizer vaccine is found to be 66% effective
after one shot and 80% effective after two shots. What happened to the 94% plus
efficacy after two shots? The vaccine is used in real-life now and the mRNA
efficacies arenot as rosy as the original forecasts. However, 66% after one
shot is real good and considering that the UK has rolled-over their active
cases chart, the US may want to follow the Brit’s lead.
It appears a winning strategy to focus on getting more people
vaccinated with one dose of the mRNA vaccine rather than rationing supplies and
methodically making sure people receive the proper two doses before moving on
to another patient. Do the math. Let’s say there are 100 million people in East
Buptkis that need vaccinated and you have 50 million doses available. Using the
UK experience as a guide, the one-dose regimen would vaccinate one-half of the
East Buptkis population with 66% immunity which will help slow the virus spread;
one-half of the population would have no protection. If following the two-dose
regimen, 25 million people would be vaccinated and protected in the 80% to 94%
range with 75 million people having no protection. The UK showed that it is
more helpful to administer one dose of the mRNA vaccine and get that 66%
effectiveness for as many people as possible. America is faced with a decision
on how to proceed.
The 7-day moving average (a smoothing mechanism for the data
that helps you identify the trend) on the US daily new cases chart is dropping
like a rock. The 7-day MA is the lowest it has been since early November (blue
circles). The daily new case numbers are the lowest since Halloween and nearing
the levels not seen since the peak in the second wave last summer (purple
circles).
Easter is 4/4/21 which will be a party weekend but Americans
should be well-behaved until then as the winter season continues in the
northern hemisphere. More good news. Spring will be coming and warmer weather
so the April through September heat will help keep COVID-19 at bay. Folks will
not be couped-up inside breathing each other’s germs.
Coronavirus is a very tiny light particle. It typically
piggy-backs on dust or water vapor particles in the air. In more humid air, the
virus particles will drop out quicker but in the dry, heated air inside
buildings, the nasty covid particles tend to linger longer increasing the
chance that you will breathe them in.
3,265 Americans die today, 2/9/21, from coronavirus. The
peak death day was 4,497 deaths on 1/12/21. Over 480K Americans have succumbed
to covid which is 0.15% of the 330 million population. 1 in every 688 Americans
have died from coronavirus over the last year. The IHME predicts that 630KAmericans will be dead by the end of May. That starts to put the pandemic on
par with the 1918 Spanish Flu. COVID-19 is a once in a century pandemic and you
are living through it folks; cut each other a break.
The US coronavirus hospitalizations data continues improving
to 79,179. That is far off the high at 132,474 on 1/6/21. A goal would be to
reduce hospitalizations down to 60K and lower since that represents the peak of
the first two waves in April and July. You have permission to drink booze and
celebrate when hospitalizations go sub 60K.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world at 28 million followed by India (11 million), Brazil (9.6), Russia (4.0),
UK (4.0), France (3.4), Spain (3.0), Italy (2.7), Turkey (2.5), Germany (2.3), Colombia (2.2), Argentina
(2.0), Mexico (2.0), Poland (1.6), Iran (1.5), South Africa (1.5), Ukraine (1.3),
Peru (1.2), Indonesia (1.2), Czechia (1.1), Netherlands (1.0), Canada (811K), Portugal
(771K), Chile (758K), Romania (750K), Belgium (728K), Israel (706K), Iraq (632K),
Sweden (596K), Pakistan (558K), Philippines (542K), Bangladesh (539K) and
Switzerland (536K). That is 33 nations with over 500,000 coronavirus cases. 13
nations, a baker’s dozen, are over 2 million total cases.
Spain just crossed 3 million cases. Italy leapfrogs Turkey. Czechia
joins the dubious 1 million total cases club. It is a club that you do not want
to join. Ditto Netherlands. The bright colors on the tulips fade. Whoa!
Portugal blasts on to the chart with 771K total cases and growing. The
worrisome signs in Spain and Portugal have been highlighted in the ongoing
covid articles for the last month. Chile jumps two slots so conditions are
worsening there.
In total deaths, USA is number one with over 480K dead on
the way to a half-million. China will have to pay for their nefarious deed. Brazil
has 234K dead. Mexico is now number three with 168K dead. That is a shame. The
variants may be sitting in Mexico and their DNA sequencing is worse than the
US. India has 155K dead the fourth worst nation on earth. The UK, Italy,
France, Russia, Germany and Spain make up the top 10 worst nations for covid
deaths.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, and more data and information become available, to push
the story forward.
This is Article 33 in K E Stone’s (The Keystone Speculator) coronavirus
series of articles that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This thirty-third article is published on Tuesday,
2/9/21.
Keystone’s covid articles are the only real-time source of
information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during
2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair.
All 33 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog
and will likely be pulled together into a large book in the future to provide
the pandemic history chronicled in real-time. The last few articles are linked
here if you want to review the pandemic saga over the last month.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a couple or few days.
The COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information and data
available for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail.
The nations on the list below are experiencing the worst pandemic
outbreaks currently (based on the data which nations may or may not be
reporting truthfully) and are the worst global hotspots. The data is helpful in
identifying broad regions that are experiencing outbreaks.
The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected
peaks in active cases based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of
the active cases curve represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The
pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the list the hardest.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. South Korea and Japan are
back in good graces after defeating the latest virus waves which proved
difficult.
The vaccination program is not going well around the world
except for a few select nations. Israel, a population of only 9 million, is
doing well having vaccinated nearly 50% of the population but has hit a brick
wall. The remaining Israelis are not enthusiastic about being jabbed. Israel is
looking at incentive programs to encourage people to roll up their sleeves. The
health minister has sent staff out into the communities to convince people to
take the shot.
Perhaps the end of the pandemic occurs when the virus
decides to dissipate and move on or die and the endeavors by us mortal humans
will be of little consequence. Perhaps coronavirus will wake up one day and
decide to simply fade away and die, as has many viruses in the past.
Belgium (Second Wave) (there are
issues with the data; numbers are likely higher; it appears the daily case
numbers are suppressed)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart continues higher)
12/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
(conditions slowly improving)
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
12/30/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (conditions slowly improving)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve starts higher again which may be a new fourth
wave)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (peaked on 1/31/21; give it a few more days to make
sure and it can disappear from this bad list)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever at 308K!!!)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve peaks on 1/31/21 but give it a few more days to
make sure and it can disappear from this list)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve peaks on 1/27/21 exactly as Keystone Model
predicted but give it a couple more days)
1/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave are in January)
2/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve peaks 1/24/21 and flattens, starting to roll
over but give it a couple days to make sure)
1/22/21 New Case Peak Date
2/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
(curve peaks 1/24/21 but give it a few more days to make sure it continues
rolling over)
Nigeria
(Second Wave)
1/22/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
2/19/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days) (curve may have peaked
1/30/21 give it a few days)
2/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for third wave)
3/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/28/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart peaked 1/29/21 but give it a few days; data is
suspect)
1/29/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever the last few days)
2/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
2/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
2/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for second wave)
2/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to peak now)
1/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave 1/15 and 1/30/21)
2/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve peaks 2/7/21 but wait for a few days)
1/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher)
1/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve peaks 2/6/21 but wait a few days)
Tragically, Spain reports 766 deaths today the deadliest day
since 4/8/20 during the first wave. Portugal remains in trouble. France is in
bad shape. We have watched and described the virus hitting the western shore of
Europe and sweeping across Portugal and Spain, now France. If one nation had to
be picked as the one to most worry about it would be France.
The UAE is off the bad list since they rolled over their
active cases curve. Bahrain, however, is a different story. What is going on
there? Is a covid patient in a white robe walking around licking doorknobs?
Bahrain reports 759 cases today a big number only surpassed by 9/16/20 at 841
cases. There may be a new strain or one of the variants wreaking havoc there.
Maybe the sheiks are participating in too many orgies like the French.
Pandemics love orgies.
Qatar is going to need a guitar to serenade itself from
misery. A second wave is starting in Qatar. The Arabs should be able to spank
it back down in quick order since Qatar is an authoritarian-style nation. The
Saudi’s are handling covid okay so the Middle East hot spot is Bahrain and
Qatar. Something nasty is going on there in the Persian Gulf.
The copper fields down in South America remain under duress
with Bolivia, Peru and Chile continuing to battle back the recent wave.
Malaysia and Indonesia remain hot spots but they may improve over the coming
week.
The world map is far different than a couple months ago when
the whole planet was a hot spot. Western Europe (Spain, Portugal and France),
the Middle East (Bahrain and Qatar), the Pacific Islands (Indonesia and
Malaysia) and western South America (Peru, Bolivia, Chile) are the remaining
hot spots around the world.
All other nations have flattened or are rolling over their
active cases curves to create the bell shape and confirm the virus is on the
run. Perhaps covid is simply getting sick of us humans and it is deciding to
flitter away on its own terms. This will work just as well as vaccines.
Everyone will be glad to show covid the door if it wants to leave.
The troubled US states are highlighted below with their
projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on
healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The US states below have failed
to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the
curve only to suffer a new wave higher again.
The picture is far brighter than the last four months; like
night and day. A few weeks back, all 50 states were on the bad list below. Iowa
is lifting the mask mandates. The active cases curve rolls over for Texas,
which is a good thing, but the death toll in the Lone Star State tops 40K
deaths.
The pandemic has greatly improved despite all the drama with
the vaccine roll-out. Let’s hope the Superbowl and variants do not crush the
hope and optimism.
Oregon (Third Wave) (data is suspect;
probably an underreporting of daily cases)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (new
cases beginning to rise again)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve maintains an upward bias)
12/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher trying to flatten)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve peaks 1/24/21 but wait a few more days to make sure it rolls over
lower)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/21 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (chart continues higher)
12/28/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart is trying to flatten)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues sharply higher)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/5/20 and 1/2/21)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
1/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
(chart continues higher)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4 and 1/6/21)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 8/31/20, 9/2/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 1/1, 1/7 and 1/8/21)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart peaks 2/6/21 but give it a few more days)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4/20 and 1/9/21)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
1/15/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve continues
higher)
South Carolina (Third Wave)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 12/27/20 and 1/16/21)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/17/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Virginia, South Carolina, New York, Maryland and Georgia are the worst covid states. They are all on the East Coast. Is the B117 variant raging havoc in the US by gaining access through these states?
Several states above show a month or two of dropping daily
new cases, however, the active cases curves are going up. Something is wrong there.
The states may be following new or different guidelines about reporting cases
since many states above should be reporting far higher numbers. Otherwise,
their active cases curves would be flat and rolling-over lower. There is a
disconnect going on with several states above such as Alabama, Arkansas,
Alaska, Maine, Kansas, California, Indiana and Oregon. All in all, the picture is
the rosiest since September.
The pandemic is improving globally despite the daily worry about the variants. France and western Europe are a concern. Ditto Bahrain and Qatar in the Middle East and Indonesia and Malaysia. In the states, watch Virginia, South Carolina, New York, Maryland and Georgia to see if conditions improve. It would be wise to direct a greater portion of the DNA sequencing efforts to these states (that have the highest number of recent daily cases) to assess the extent of the variant infections (since these states are the worst at the moment, perhaps the variants are most active there) in the United States.
The vaccine roll-out will need to gather steam and the J&J vaccine will need to be approved for emergency use for the United States to have any chance of achieving herd immunity by Labor Day (9/6/21). After Labor Day, it will not matter, since the new Fall flu and covid season will be upon us.
The Johnny John vaccine is critical since it is a one-shot deal. People sitting on the vaccine hesitancy fence will be more willing to roll-up their sleeves and receive one shot. Many folks also do not want to take the mRNA vaccines for fear that random human DNA may be modified (this has not occurred in the animal studies to date). These vaccine hesitant folks figure they will only have to flinch once with the J&J vaccine, it will be over in a couple seconds, then they will be completely finished, and can go back home. This is the way common regular folks think. The Johnson & Johnson approval determines whether America reaches herd immunity by Labor Day, or not.
For now, the news is the best it’s been in four months. Celebrate that fact. Good News, Chariotsa Comin’, Good News.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 2/10/21: The United States is investigating counterfeit N95 mask scams. Sick bastards are selling the foreign-made masks to medical facilities, hospitals, clinics, nursing homes and government agencies. Caregivers have a false sense of security thinking they are protected when in fact they have a two-bit knock-off hugging their mug. 3M, Triple M in stock market lingo, produces many of the N95's so look for that brand name. Look for misspellings in the brand and approval names stamped on masks and packaging. Instead of 3 M it may say 4M or 3N. Instead of the NIOSH (National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) stamp, it may say NIOCH or some other letter combination to trick you into thinking you are seeing NIOSH. China is notorious for ignoring patents and copyrights and producing knock-offs of popular products. The ladies know this from handbags that are counterfeited in mass. A counterfeit Louis Vuitton handbag may be identified as Louis Vitton or Louis Vuiton. Humans are greedy animals always looking for ways to make a buck. CDC Director Walensky encourages people to continue wearing masks even if you are sick of it. Two masks are better than one. Wearing a cloth mask over top a disposable mask is a good approach. A mask with a moldable metal nose wire will help to keep it in place. The ear loops should be adjusted, tied and knotted to create a snug fit. Although well-meaning, it is too many recommendations and guidelines for the average American to absorb. It is better to tell people exactly what you want them to do. When there are choices, people will remain confused. The fit is key since some people only wear masks over the mouth and not the nose. Perhaps the message can be simplified to; "MASK GUIDELINES TO HELP AMERICA: Wear a mask everywhere you go either a disposable mask, cloth mask or professional N95 mask. You can wear a cloth mask over top the disposable mask for added protection. Make sure the mask fits tight over the nose and mouth. Consider leaving the N95 masks for the healthcare workers that care for the sick COVID-19 patients daily. THANK YOU FOR HELPING AMERICA." That's it. Do not distract the public with any other mask information. The KISS principle; Keep It Simple Stupid. The capitalized greeting tells the person these are the mask guidelines so they know they need to read this and nothing else. They are told it is helping America which makes them want to wear a mask. The directions are simple and easy to follow. The person is thanked which will make them more prone to mask-up. Everyone wants their *ss kissed nowadays. The person is nudged towards leaving the N95 masks for healthcare workers and most will. You catch more bees with honey than you do with vinegar. The paragraph can be printed out on slips of paper and given to everyone visiting medical facilities, businesses, stores, etc... Most people need told directly what to do, otherwise they will stumble around confused as evidenced by society's behavior over the last year. Simply pound that simple and direct mask statement into people's heads; it would be something they can take direct action on. Simple and clear directions reduce the stress and strain on people and allows them to think more positivity as they navigate a pandemic for over one year. Simple and direct instructions are needed for the vaccination programs to tell people who to call and where to go.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 2/10/21: President Biden is concerned about vaccine hesitancy in America. The US may hit a brick wall come April and May with a stockpile of vaccine available but few people remaining willing to roll-up their sleeves. The idea behind vaccinations is to protect people from disease while lessening the burden on the medical system. Perhaps the direction forward for America is not to shove vaccines down people's throats but instead build more medical facilities and increase staffing in the medical profession. An anti-vaxxer is an anti-vaxxer. You can talk until you are blue in the face but you will not convince them to take a vaccine. Therefore, the logical approach is to simply accept this fact and plan for their stupidity (as viewed from the medical perspective and not their perspective). People in power need to learn to accept and understand each other's viewpoints and the fact that you cannot change everyone's mind. Thus, a government must then plan accordingly knowing millions of people do not plan to take the vaccine. Perhaps strategic planning by the medical industry for increased case loads is a better path ahead for handling anti-vaxxers rather than contemplating plans of strapping them into a chair and forcibly injecting them with the animal proteins, tracers and other witches brew of ingredients. It is a disservice and only damages the country to label anyone not willing to be vaccinated as unpatriotic or a conspiracy theorist. Do not do this stupid stuff since it only serves to further divide the nation. Accept the fact that people will not take the vaccine; once the government has this aha moment, they can develop projections and plans on how to handle an increased case load that may occur. AZN, AstraZeneca stock, rallies on strong earnings. Of course the vaccine makers want to make vaccine and make money. All the vaccine-associated stocks such as PFE, BNTX, MRNA, NVAX and others are to the moon over the last year. The wealthy elite class, that owns America's stock market, dances with glee.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 2/11/21: State governors are relaxing the coronavirus restrictions but medical officials warn that may be too fast too soon. The Superbowl may create more daily cases; this will be known one way or the other in a few days time. The variants are the wild card. The concern would be that people get used to the relaxed measures but then the variants hit hard which would result in a rapid acceleration in case load. Global coronavirus cases are almost at 108 million with almost 2.4 million people dead. The US is at 28 million total cases with 483,200 dead. The US daily new cases are under 100K for the last four days which is great news. Daily new cases peaked in the 70K to 80K range last summer during the second wave so there will be no celebration until those daily case counts go sub 70K (they are running at 90K to 97K the last four days). The US is headed in the right direction. The US active cases curve (see chart above) is set up perfectly to roll over and create the bell shape which will be cause for great celebration, however, America blew it twice last year when faced with the same inflection point. Is the third time a charm to finally defeat this nasty covid pandemic or will the US fail again? During a CNBC interview, Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium Professor Sharon Peacock declares, "The new variant (UK's B117) has swept the country (UK) and it's going to sweep the world, in all probability."
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 2/11/21: According to an AP-NORC (Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research), 1 in 3 Americans will definitely not, or probably would not, take the covid vaccine. Conversely, 67% of Americans are or plan to be vaccinated. 15% say they definitely will not take the vaccine. 17% say they probably will not take the jab. President Biden tours the NIH facilities and announces another deal with Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna to provide an additional 200 million vaccine doses. Biden says the US will have enough vaccine for 300 million people, the entire US, by July. The J&J vaccine may provide 100 million one-dose vaccines also by the summer so there will be plenty of vaccine supply available. Dr Fauci tag teams with Biden saying that April will be "open season" on vaccines (readily available to any American that wants a vaccine). Vaccine hesitancy will come into play around May and June. If there is excess vaccine come July and August, due to the folks that do not plan to take the shot, maybe the supplies can be given to a third world country. More stories are surfacing from pharmacies and vaccination centers in various states requesting more vaccine but being told to wait. This is why Biden put Pfizer and Moderna in a headlock today until they agreed to provide more vaccine faster. The Biden announcement that enough mRNA doses will be available to vaccinate the entire country may indicate that the J&J approval process is not going well. Also, Biden probably wants to follow the UK's example and inoculate as many people as possible with one-shot. The doctors, scientists, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna will have to provide guidance. The UK decided to vaccinate as many people as possible with one shot and worry about the second shot later. If the second shot slips a couple weeks or so beyond the 3 to 4 weeks used in the studies, the UK is not concerned. Their strategy pays off since the UK active cases bell curve shown above is rolling over and the Brit's are on their way to better days. The UK found that one shot provided 66% protection while two shots provided 80% (not the 94% shown in the study). The mRNA drug trials had lots of middle-aged white folks so it makes sense that the vaccine effectiveness data on the general population would not be as good as the 94% plus efficacies seen during the controlled trials. More data will be needed. France is opening up schools which may not be wise since they are one of the worst covid nations on earth right now.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 2/11/21: New York Governor Cuomo is sinking deeper into the nursing home scandal. Cuomo's office may have been involved with purposely misreporting nursing home deaths to avoid federal scrutiny. Cuomo sent 9,056 elderly covid patients back to nursing homes with a 3/25/20 directive which infected many more people and thousands died. Cuomo blames the Trump administration's guidelines for his actions. That is well and good but if the numbers under his control were fudged, and if he was blocking information from the DOJ, his political future is toast. Not only that, but he may have serious legal problems if he was doing something nefarious. Cuomo should read his leadership book for tips. Keystone has a copy if he needs one; it is used to level the kitchen table. The nursing home scandal turns ugly and will only become uglier. Families of the thousands of seniors that died deserve to know what was going on. Instead of a future bid for POTUS as he desires in his own mind, Cuomo may end up getting impeached. A scandal takes on a whole new meaning when people die.
Note Added Friday Morning, 2/12/21: The New York Times says President Trump was far sicker from coronavirus than was reported in the press. His handlers downplayed the sickness. The doctors considered placing the president on a ventilator. Trump's blood oxygen levels were low and he was fighting pneumonia that was only remedied by super strong steroids. The treatment may explain some of his odd aggressive behavior after he returned to the Whitehouse from the hospital. Trump and the First Lady receive treatment not available to common folks. Uncle Harry would be pushing up daisies if he was stricken with covid like Trump. America's crony capitalism system is two-tiered with the elite privileged class running the rigged game, and then there is everyone else. It is a New Gilded Age a la the 1920's. Congress continues to play around with the fiscal stimulus bill. They are in no rush to help the huddled masses. The elite eat gourmet meals each evening and sleep on satin sheets. The wealthy wonder why everyone is so glum as they tell the huddled masses to eat cake (paraphrasing Marie Antoinette).
Note Added Friday Morning, 2/12/21: During an audit, Ohio finds 4K deaths previously not reported. More sloppy work is exposed in these days of American Mediocrity that used to be exceptionalism. 486,922 Americans are dead from covid; instantaneously, there are now 490,922 Americans dead. One-half million is not far away. The US vaccination dose rate is at 1.6 million doses per day. 240 million Americans need the vaccine to reach herd immunity. About 11 million have received two shots so about 230 million people need vaccinated. This is 460 million doses which should be available by summertime. At the current rate of 1.6 million doses per day, the 230 million people (460 million doses) would be vaccinated and the US would reach herd immunity in 288 days or 11/30/21; this is too late into the Fall flu and covid season. Labor Day is 9/6/21 which is 204 days away. To reach herd immunity before the Fall flu season, the dose rate must be 2.2 million doses per day (460/204). Everyday that the 2.2 rate is not achieved, is another day that this number will have to ramp higher. If the 2.2 rate is not achieved over the next week or two, then the US will have to ramp up to 2.3 million doses per day, and so forth. Time is of the essence. Perhaps the approach of vaccinating anyone that is willing to stick their arm out, as fast as possible, with one dose, not so much worried about when the second dose will occur, similar to what the UK did, is the path forward. Everyone is doing the best they can. The outcome is out collective destiny.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 2/12/21: Various cities plan to relax restaurant restrictions on indoor dining. In a CNBC interview, virologist Angela Rasmussen, with Georgetown University's Center for Global Health Science and Security, proclaims that the variants circulating "are more transmissible." She says it is a "premature and reckless decision" to relax the restrictions as the variants take hold. The WHO says patients in South Africa that have recovered from covid are now becoming reinfected with the new variant B1351. That is bad news. The South Africa B1351 variant is more deadly and perhaps more infectious than the UK B117 variant. The world needs to get a handle on the pandemic before the variants and mutations get out of hand. China's bioweapon wreaks havoc upon the planet. Fauci says Americans will be wearing masks for "several months into the future."
Note Added Saturday, 2/13/21: 10% of the new cases in Florida are the new UK B117 variant. The Superbowl was just played in Tamapa, Florida. The CDC releases guidelines about kids returning to school. A few days ago, the CDC was in favor of children returning to school but this comment was in conflict with the Biden administration that lays in bed with the teachers union. The guidelines recommend different protocols for different locations A color-coded system will help schools assess transmission levels. The 35-page plan provides a roadmap helpful to all parties. The CDC does not recommend teacher vaccinations as a key guideline which continues to create angst for some of the educators. The US should simply give any teachers the vaccine if they want it and get the kids in school. This situation will linger. For now, the CDC, medical professionals, President Biden, the Whitehouse covid task force, and the teachers union, hold hands in the Oval Office and sing "Kumbaya."
Note Added Sunday, 2/14/21: CDC Director Walensky says it is a mistake to relax mask-wearing guidelines as the data improves. Iowa, North Dakota, Montana and Mississippi are lifting mask requirements. WHO says China will not turn over the raw data concerning the early outbreak of the coronavirus. Of course they won't; the CCP are filthy communists. The CNN cable news outlet provides information on the WHO trip to Wuhan. WHO says 174 cases are confirmed in China before December 2019. The models predict, from that data, that would be at least 1,000 people actually infected in Wuhan before the new years celebrations started for 2020. There were 13 variations identified in Wuhan some linked to the animal markets. It appears the virus was circulating in China much earlier than what they told the world. Dictator Xi is a filthy liar. China will not share biological samples of the virus collected from late 2019. China has 200K small samples, many tiny amounts of sample, but will not provide any of the material to the WHO for analysis. The communists probably did not have enough time as yet to mix up a batch of what they want you to see. China is in a battle with Australia since the land down under spoke up about the commies treatment of Uighur's and other minorities in China (most are used as slaves). China now claims that the coronavirus may have originated in Australia. Doctors are becoming more concerned about the variant spread in the US now totaling about 1,000 cases mainly the UK B117 strain. US daily new cases may ramp sharply higher in March as the variants bite. Dr Leana Wen says the goal should be a 3 million doses per day vaccination rate for the US to reach herd immunity in the summertime. She is correct and the data and analysis above verifies that projection. 13 million Americans have received two doses of the vaccine. Another 30 million have received one dose. Let's call that 15 million people if they would have received two doses plus the 13 is 28 million vaccinated (estimate). The US needs to vaccinate 240 million people to reach herd immunity (which accounts for people that had/have the virus and folks that will not show up for second shot) so take away 28 is 212 million more Americans need vaccinated which is 424 million doses. At the 3 million per day dose rate, it will take 141 days (424/3) which is 7/5/21 call it Independence Day on the dot. There would be fireworks, celebration and joy. Is this positive outcome, however, a bridge too far?
Note Added Monday Morning, 2/15/21: New Zealand places Auckland in lockdown. Australia imposes their standard 14-day quarantine on travelers from New Zealand. Traveling remains a disaster since all the plans in the world can be thrown asunder right before it is time to depart. South Africa is relaxing border restrictions as new virus cases have been decreasing for a couple weeks. Conditions are improving but the new strain remains a worry. The J&J vaccine is being used on healthcare workers as part of the drug trial process. Those vaccinations are helping South Africa right the ship plus providing important data on the Johnny John vaccine. The concern in a couple months is probably going to be the lack of vaccine enthusiasm. 40% to 50% of New York City police do not plan to take the vaccine. Ditto in California and Ohio. There are over 40% of the nursing home workers in Ohio that do not want to take the vaccine. This adds up to millions of people. Perhaps some would be more open to receiving a non-mRNA vaccine such as J&J. It will be tough to convince these folks otherwise so the hospitals and clinics will need to plan for an ongoing elevated case level into summer.
Note Added Monday Evening, 2/15/21: Texas and other Midwest states are hit with a multi-decade cold snap that has frozen the windmills and brought the energy sector to its knees. People are without power and heat so obviously the vaccination program will suffer for a few days. Americans are flying again with the airports seeing 5 million travelers in the last 5 days. Travelers must take a covid test before and after traveling. Dr Fauci says the vaccines will not be available to the general public until May or June instead of April. This is not good. The medical bozo's keep telling people half-*ss information that changes week to week. No wonder Americans are fed-up and frustrated. Fauci says the J&J vaccine, which is not yet approved, will not be available in the 100 million doses originally projected but instead only 20 million doses initially. Unbelievable. Fauci says it was a miscommunication. How many times can that excuse be used? Ay carumba! Fauci, dude, you need to retire and hit the road. Perhaps the only reason the good doctor sticks around is to keep an eye on developments at the Wuhan bioweapons laboratories. The US had provided research money to the Wuhan lab (people think there is one lab but there is actually two; the other one is kept secret by the filthy communists) to study viruses before the China Flu outbreak occurred. Hopes for herd immunity vanish faster than a plate of chocolate chip cookies at a weight-watchers convention. The J&J vaccine is needed since some folks do not want the messenger RNA vaccine. You can see a mess coming. A lot of the country does not want vaccinated and now the J&J vaccine may be delayed plus supplied in smaller quantities. Uncle Sam takes a shiv to the ribs. The US is considering vaccinating as many people as possible with one shot ,and if the second shot is delayed a couple weeks past the 3 and 4 weeks spacing between shots that Pfizer and Moderna require, so be it. The UK found that vaccinating more people with one shot helped decrease the virus faster. One shot provided about 66% immunity which is very good. Regular flu vaccines sometimes are lucky if they provide 50% protection. This may be a good path forward for the US especially since many folks do not want the vaccine. Supplies should be robust and not jeopardize the second shots after an accelerated first-shot program occurs. These decisions are not easy but that is why the officials are paid the big bucks. They simply need to stand behind what they say and quit providing the rosy talk that never comes true; it only serves to destroy people's attitudes and trust in the system while doing nothing to help them better handle and cope with the pandemic. The J&J vaccine is in for FDA approval on 2/26/21 about a week away. This meeting listens to public input and then makes recommendations for authorization. This would be the end of February and beginning of March. Then the CDC takes the recommendations and lays out a detailed plan for distributing and administering the J&J vaccine.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 2/16/21: New York Governor Cuomo is under pressure with the nursing home scandal. Cuomo sent sick seniors back to nursing homes last year resulting in thousands of deaths. He blames the Trump administration for their guidance. Now he is blaming the nursing home employees for bringing coronavirus into those facilities. That's weak. Do not blame those folks working in the nursing homes; that is a tough job and they do not make a lot of money. Maybe Cuomo needs to clean-up a bed-ridden patient after an episode of explosive diarrhea; it may change his viewpoint. The white folks well-versed on using the internet are receiving more vaccinations than poor and disadvantaged people. Of course they are; this is America. Wealthier, tech-savvy folks know how to navigate the internet and web sites are popping up directing people to vaccinations sites and providing other information. People are registering for vaccinations at multiple sites and going to the one that is ready to provide the shots. Poor folks do not have the wherewithal to do all that fancy computer stuff and run around town in a fancy SUV. Therefore, wealthy people are vaccinated more than poor folks. Some of the *ssholes do not cancel their names on other vaccination waiting lists once they receive their shot so that takes slots away from other people trying to get a vaccination. Greedy humans.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 2/16/21: The Bloomberg vaccination tracker reports 56.1 million doses administered in the US with a 1.7 million doses per day rate. This pace, although impressive and everyone is working hard, will not provide herd immunity by the end of summer. The pace has to be above 2.2 million doses per day and 3.0 million or more would be a game-changer. The winter weather, shortage of vaccine supplies, shortage of healthcare staff and some vaccine sent to areas that are not yet set up to provide the vaccinations, create roadblocks in the system. Things will smooth-out over time. The important thing is to plug away at it because that is how the bottlenecks are identified that can then be rectified as fast as possible thereby increasing efficiency. It is a process. A leader has to educate the workers and people on the plan and path forward in plain English and they will follow.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 2/17/21, at 2:32 AM EST: The jackass medical people one-up themselves. WHO and others want to give the new virus strains idiot bird names. In today's politically-correct world, the medical jackasses involved with this idea want to stop calling coronavirus the Wuhan Flu or China Flu. Tough sh*t. That is exactly what it is. The idiots opine that the nomenclature for the variants such as B117 for the UK strain, are confusing for people. Comically, these are the *ssholes putting the information out to begin with; you should have settled the nomenclature around the pandemic a year ago. If you recall, in one of the first few coronavirus articles Keystone called out for a universal nomenclature when discussing coronavirus, which never occurred. The morons are calling the UK B117 strain 'Robin' or some such thing. Do not pay any attention to the bird sh*t. There is a Pelican and other nonsense names. Why don't they do their job instead of playing with bird names and colors all day long? No wonder the pandemic is a mess and Americans are stressed-out. People are not as intelligent as decades ago and most definitely are not when it comes to 'common sense' things. In light of and because of this nonsense, everyone needs to always refer to coronavirus as the Wuhan Flu and China Flu. Anytime you discuss it with another person, or on the internet, anywhere, always call it the Wuhan Flu and China Flu. The Spanish Flu was a hundred years ago and if a flu starts in the US it will be called the America Flu. For gosh sakes, grow up people. The original virus is D614G, The UK strain is B117. The South Africa strain of coronavirus is B1351. The Brazil strain is B11248 or P1. The Denmark strain, which necessitated the culling of thousands of mink, was the first serious variant but was mainly contained within the country. Those names are easy to understand and that is the way they remain. From now on, the Wuhan Flu or China Flu will be named in the first paragraph of all future articles in the ongoing coronavirus chronology which is the only real-time history of the pandemic. When the medical officials read the first paragraphs of the future coronavirus articles, that are followed daily by a huge international audience, know that Wuhan Flu and China Flu are purposely mentioned to shove it into your faces. Do not pull any of that revisionist history crap around here. The China Flu was released, either intentionally or accidentally, from one of the two Wuhan bioweapon laboratories. Do you understand this fact or are you stupid?
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 2/17/21, at 3:38 AM EST: The bad winter storm and power outages continue in Texas with 20 people dead. The cold weather across the US hampers the vaccination program. The China Flu tops 110 million cases around the world and has murdered over 2.4 million people. Over 28 million Americans are infected with covid and sadly, 499,991 are dead. 500K dead is a grim milestone and time for somber reflection. China screwed the world.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 2/17/21, at 8:45 AM EST: THE UNITED STATES EXCEEDS 500K DEAD FROM CORONAVIRUS A TRAGIC MILESTONE. Returning students to school remains a hot topic of discussion. The Kumbaya moment is over. Some teachers want to be vaccinated before returning to the classroom but the CDC does not make this recommendation. Of course it would be great if they were. The Biden plan says kids would be in the classroom once per week and that qualifies as 'back-to-school'. As Sleepy Joe Biden says himself, "Come-on, man, come-on, man." Biden is weaseling his way along. The science says teachers can return to school, and the administration touts following the science, except for this case because Biden kneels and licks the teacher's unions shoes each morning. It's just another day in corrupt, crony America.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 2/17/21: One-third of the US military troops refuse to take the vaccine. The evidence keeps pilling up. To pull numbers out of the air, about 60% of the country is willing to receive the vaccines while 40% are hesitant. If, by summer time, say about 10% of the hesitant folks have antibodies from being stricken with covid, it will only place the US at about 70% with antibody protection and 30% without that have no intent of ever receiving a vaccine. This is the summer reality coming. Medical professionals need to plan for this now. Do not place your heads in the sand, like an ostrich, and then three months from now proclaim, "Heavens to Betsy, look at the dire shape we're in. No one saw this coming" People do not plan to take a vaccine ever. This writer included. Get over it. Accept it. If vaccines are made mandatory for travel or to attend events, most of these people then won't. All that will do is hurt the economy. Calling people anti-vaxxer's and trying to shame them will only embolden those folks and build more distrust and hatred in America. When in Rome, do like the Romans. Since you know people will not take the vaccine, make arrangements now to plan for an increase in hospitalizations and care. Hoping the vaccine hesitancy problem goes away is not a strategy. Neither is mandatory vaccines; this edict will only hasten a revolution. The vaccines are less effective against the South Africa strain B1351 which is also a more deadly variant. On top of the vaccine hesitancy issue, the variant strains may further mutate into bugs resistant to the current vaccines. There is a nasty strain in southern California currently; if it becomes real bad, we may have an America Flu strain on tap.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 2/18/21: J&J says only a few million doses of their vaccine will be available in quick order once FDA approval is received and the CDC provides guidelines for use perhaps by mid-March. Johnson & Johnson is supposed to provide 100 million doses by June. The drug maker is obviously hitting a snag with the vaccine that the medical folks are keeping quiet. No doubt Johnny John is doing all it can. Scientists want the Biden administration to adopt a requirement that all employees in a risky environment wear N95 masks. The DHS (Department of Homeland Security) is raiding facilities involved with making counterfeit N95 masks. A raid yesterday nabs 11 million fake masks that were being shipped to healthcare workers. Nail those bastards and throw them in jail. Human greed is always on full display even in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic. America is more optimistic this week as the data improves nicely but doctors, nurses and scientists worry that the UK strain B117, South Africa strain B1351 and/or Brazil strain B11248 (P1) will wreak havoc going forward.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 2/18/21: America's genetic surveillance of the new strains is woefully inadequate. The US is terrible at identifying, tracking and tracing the new variants. American Mediocrity is on display each and every day. Let's go with the DNA sequencing folks. Chop, chop. It is difficult, if not impossible, to fight an unknown enemy. The winter storm and power outages continue in Texas which has its own power grid that is not tied into the national system. Texas can be laughed at for their stupidity and lack of political leadership later but right now, people are dying. 30 are dead. Water and fuel pipes are frozen. The windmills remain frozen. Texas saved money by not installing winter packages on power equipment and piping (generators, heat-traced pipelines, heated enclosures, etc...) so now their people freeze, and die. FEMA says 2,000 vaccination sites are within the power outage areas of Texas and elsewhere and are shut down. The vaccine program faces a few days of delays as the entire US is hit with the frigid cold wave. The FedEx facility in Memphis, Tennessee, is having issues due to the frigid cold and inability to fly into Texas. Same-o for the United Parcel Service facility in Louisville, Kentucky. Vaccine shipments to Texas and other states are delayed until road conditions improve. FedEx and UPS are the two largest shippers in America. When it rains, it pours.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 2/18/21: The American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology says pregnant women are at a higher risk for covid. Pfizer begins a vaccine drug trial that will monitor about 4K pregnant women. During a CNN interview, Whitehouse adviser Andy Slavitt says J&J is reworking its vaccine due to the variants. This must be the real reason behind the Johnny John controversy. The originally-promised 100 million doses are pared back, as well as the approval timeline, so this single-shot vaccine will have to remain temporarily on the back burner. No wonder the Biden administration went all-in with the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccines promising 600 million total doses by July which is enough to vaccinate 300 million people; basically all of the United States. The medical folks still do not know if a person can carry coronavirus if vaccinated. The person would not become infected but may serve as a carrier. The CDC says a vaccinated person does not have to isolate if exposed to someone that tests positive for covid. The two statements are in conflict. The pandemic remains a confusing mess. The medical community continues to study the virus but obviously has a lot to learn even after one long year. Communist China, that releases the Wuhan Flu upon the world, provides little cooperation, data or information on coronavirus. Of course they don't. They are filthy dirtbag communists. Any information from China is a lie from the CCP.
Note Added Friday Morning, 2/19/21, at 4:00 AM EST: As Wall Street says the economy is fine and will recovery in dramatic fashion, and the stock market keeps printing record highs, the businesses suffer on Main Street. Coronavirus surcharges and fees are appearing on customer's bills a sign that all is not well. Dentists are adding $15 to the bill for covid-related costs. Humorously, the dentists and hygienists have been using face shields, masks and gloves for a decade or two. The greedy bastards are simply passing the cost of their standard PPE supplies to the public. Why not take advantage of the situation, right? That's crony capitalism. A car detailing business added a covid fee to a customer's bill that became irate over the issue. They wipe the door handle and spray some disinfectant and charge you $15 or $20 in the gouging sweepstakes. The customer told them that if his car had covid when it was pulled in then he wanted to leave with covid. The car detailer took the fee off the bill for that man. Things are getting silly. People will slit each other's throats over money. Money controls a human's daily decisions and life.
Note Added Friday Morning, 2/19/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The confusion over mask-wearing continues. Fauci creates more confusion the other day talking about two masks. Is it a cloth mask over a N95 mask, or over a disposable mask, or either? A radio talk show host in Pittsburgh is confused at the different mask messaging exclaiming, "Who the Hell knows?" The radio program goes out to tens of thousands of people and perpetuates chaos and confusion. People are walking around with masks on their chins. Some cover the mouth but not the nose. At the grocery store the other day, the uppity manager was yelling at a customer for not wearing a mask while she was eating an apple with the mask on her chin. The stuff is hilarious; if it was not so tragic. A big problem is that there is no single point person to run the show. There needs to be one person, a czar if you will, that fields all the incoming questions concerning covid or points the press to the right person to answer the question. Former Vice President Pence ran the prior administration's task force but he did not step up to the plate. He dissolved the task force last summer only to hobble it back together late in the year; you failed buddy, get lost. Fauci will say one thing on television but then a different official will provide a conflicting statement 10 minutes later. Then the Whitehouse spokesperson will provide her two cents which only muddies the COVID-19 waters further. Then the situation is regurgitated by a myriad of doctors and talking heads on television trying to decipher the covid tea leaves. Is it any wonder the pandemic is a mess? Too many chefs spoil the dinner. Americans also need clear written information on mask-wearing and the vaccination program. The response is always 'look on the website'. That is an easy way to slough-off someone's question and make you feel good about yourself but in truth you help no one. Verbal information is meaningless, and can be confusing. Information is not official until it is written down on a piece of paper because this act shows commitment to the accuracy of the data and guidelines. Talk is cheap. Information becomes real and actionable, and debatable, when written on a piece of paper. Most importantly, it serves a a basis to build from and keeps everyone singing from the same hymn sheet. The web sites so a good job providing information for medical personnel and people in the know, however, are not user-friendly for John Q Public. The web sites are confusing with numbers scattered everywhere, different size fonts that make eyes glaze over, and colors; the head is spinning round and round. Poor and disadvantaged folks are not as well-versed on using the internet. Many do not have computers. The masking and vaccination instructions should be written out as simply and succinctly as possible, be terse, in bold block letters, in a numbered list format, and placed prominently on the front page of pertinent websites and folks should be encouraged to print those instructions out. In addition, businesses can have copies of the instructions and place them in every customer bag at purchase time. The information needs to be written down for people to follow; folks are too caught up in the use of computer technology to disseminate information which has obviously failed over the last year. Keystone knows rocket science folks, and this is not rocket science. But alas, America instead chooses to bumble along daily with non-coordinated messaging and conflicting information from dozens of talking heads. US incompetence is on full display.
Note Added Friday Morning, 2/19/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The school situation remains a mess. Parents and most of America, after assessing one year's worth of data on the pandemic, want the children to return to school. This will help parents return to work and most importantly, help kids and young people better cope with the pandemic. Sleepy Joe Biden is beholding to the teacher's union for his support and votes, however, so he slows the reopening of schools and charts a path forward not rooted in science. The 'follow the science' statement becomes a lie like most everything else. America moves from one incompetent leader to another. Children's grades are falling especially with minorities and disadvantaged kids.
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