The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9

By K E Stone

Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has infected 6.5 million people around the world murdering over 383,000 souls. 3 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer disease has attacked and sickened 1.9 million Americans (0.6% of the 330 million US population) murdering over 108K United States citizens. 646K have recovered.

Virus, schmirus. This is the way the public is beginning to think. The coronavirus news has settled down significantly. It is overtaken by the killing of George Floyd a black man in police custody. The cop allegedly kept his knee on Mr Floyd’s neck until he passed out and died (the video appears to be conclusive). Protests and riots break out in the major cities. Looting is rampant for the last week. Ironically, the government requires the looters to wear a mask due to the virus which also hides their identity; a criminal's dream. The protesters are not following social distancing rules. The COVID-19 pandemic fades into the background as the police brutality against folks of color takes the spotlight.

USA has the most number of total coronavirus cases in the world followed by Brazil, Russia, Spain, UK, Italy and India, respectively. With deaths, the US leads followed by the UK, Italy, Brazil, France and Spain, respectively.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided and tweaked since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available. This is Article 9 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This ninth article is published on Wednesday, 6/3/20, as the S&P 500 catapults to new highs for the rally off the March bottom low the SPX now up to 3123.

The first article in the coronavirus series is USCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; FederalReserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP andAnnouncing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; CoronavirusArchive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active CasesPeaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly JobsReport; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases ContinueRising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headedfor Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (ModernMonetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; CoronavirusArchive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus SuccessStories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexicoand Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus TestingSupplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 BillionSpending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; CoronavirusArchive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as NewVirus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68KAmericans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing DeficienciesContinue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell thisMonth; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy BeforeFlattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst VirusStates; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; SecondWave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.

The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black andLatino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina areWorst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy TurnsPolitical; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); HertzGoes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; TrumpGolfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.

As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Charts above are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region. TKSCIRM monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled. If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak 11 days after the new cases peak. If the country is not well-prepared, like the US, the active cases will peak in 28 days. If a US state, add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date.

The US active cases chart, shown above, the bell curve which represents the maximum strain on medical facilities, has topped out and is rolling over. Finally, some good news. American healthcare workers are going to catch a break and should notice a dramatic drop-off in active virus cases in a week or two when the right side of the bell curve will form. The ‘flattening of the curve’ term references the active cases chart where the top of the bell curve shape forms.

The US death curve is also shown above where a 120K deaths are expected in the US mid-month and then perhaps 130K by the Fourth of July Independence Day. The death curves are unforgiving for most countries, even those that succeeded in fighting the virus quickly. The curves keep sloping higher. The total estimation of US deaths will probably be in that 130K to 140K range.

The positive near-term direction will continue unless the increased human interactions recently bring on a second wave. For now, things are working out okay for many American states, and other nations, that are restarting their economies. However, plenty of countries, and US states, remain in trouble as highlighted below.

The active case bell curves have peaked, flattened and rolled over or are rolling over for the following nations that are on their way to better days ahead (barring a second wave).

China (Active Case Peak Date 2/17/20) (13 days after New Case Peak Date) (data is suspect)

South Korea (Active Case Peak Date 3/11/20) (8 days)

Switzerland (Active Case Peak Date 3/21/20) (11 days)

Austria (Active Case Peak Date 4/3/20) (8 days)

Australia (Active Case Peak Date 4/4/20) (13 days)

Iran (Active Case Peak Date 4/5/20) (6 days) (data is suspect) (now facing second wave but new cases have not yet exceeded the 3/30/20 New Case Peak Date but are extremely close)

Germany (Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (10 days)

Taiwan (Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (17 days)

Hong Kong (Active Case Peak Date 4/7/20) (9 days)

Hungary (Active Case Peak Date 5/4/20) (24 days)

Israel (Active Case Peak Date 4/16/20) (14 days)

Italy (Active Case Peak Date 4/19/20) (30 days)

Ireland (Active Case Peak Date 4/20/20) (10 days)

Turkey (Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (13 days)

Spain (Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (29 days)

France (Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (26 days)

Japan (Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (18 days)

Portugal (Active Case Peak Date 5/11/20) (31 days)

Singapore (Active Case Peak Date 5/12/20) (23 days)

United States (Active Case Peak Date 5/30/20) (37 days)

Ecuador

4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 4/10/20 date)

5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

5/24/20 Active Case Peak Date (the Keystone Model almost hit it on the dot) (30 days)

Canada (North America)

5/3/20 New Case Peak Date

5/31/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

5/30/20 Active Case Peak Date (the Keystone Model almost hit it exactly)

The active case bell curves have not peaked for the following nations or it is not possible to verify that they have topped-out. These nations remain mired in the coronavirus quagmire.

UK (Europe) (data is suspect)

4/10/20 New Case Peak Date

5/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (cannot confirm that the peak is in)

Netherlands (data is suspect)

4/10/20 New Case Peak Date

5/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (cannot confirm that the peak is in)

Belgium (data is suspect)

4/15/20 New Case Peak Date

5/13/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher

Sweden (data is suspect)

4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (4/8/20, 4/30/20, 4/24/20, 4/30/20, 5/29/20, 6/2/20 are highs)

5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (cannot confirm that the peak is in)

Russia (data is suspect)

5/11/20 New Case Peak Date

6/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve may have peaked 6/1/20)

Poland

5/12/20 New Case Peak Date

6/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve may have peaked 6/1/20)

The countries below are in COVID-19 Hell. Patients are dropping like flies. These nations will need help from the other countries that have recovered. May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls.

Indonesia

5/21/20 New Case Peak Date (4/12/20, 4/14/20, 4/17/20, 4/28/20, 5/1/20, 5/13/20 huge days)

6/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Honduras

5/23/20 New Case Peak Date

6/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Kenya

5/28/20 New Case Peak Date (blew past the 5/21/20 date)

6/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Mexico

5/28/20 New Case Peak Date (5/8/20, 5/13/20, 5/22/20 big days)

6/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Philippines (data is suspect)

5/29/20 New Case Peak Date (blew past the 3/31/20 date)

6/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

South Africa

5/29/20 New Case Peak Date (5/13/20, 5/17/20, 5/21/20, 5/23/20 big days)

6/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Brazil (data is suspect)

5/30/20 New Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 4/6/20 and 5/20/20 dates)

6/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (may have peaked 6/1/20)

Columbia

5/30/20 New Case Peak Date (blew pat 5/23/20)

6/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Egypt

5/31/20 New Case Peak Date (blew past the 5/22/20 date)

6/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Peru

5/31/20 New Case Peak Date (4/13/20, 4/25/20, 5/13/20, 5/21/20 big days)

6/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Bolivia

5/31/20 New Case Peak Date (blew past 5/21/20 date)

6/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Chile

6/1/20 New Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 5/13/20, 5/22/20, 5/25/20 dates)

6/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Argentina

6/2/20 New Case Peak Date (blew past 5/22/20 date)

6/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Bangladesh

6/2/20 New Case Peak Date (blew past the 5/23/20 date)

6/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Pakistan

6/2/20 New Case Peak Date (blew past the 5/13/20 date)

6/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

India

6/2/20 New Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 5/10/20 and 5/23/20 dates)

6/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

The remaining hot zones are South Asia, Central America, Africa, and South (Latin) America. The southern hemisphere of Mother Earth is going into wintertime as the northern hemisphere proceeds into summertime. The Wuhan virus would be expected to spread quicker in the southern hemisphere during the cooler conditions, however, the virus is not subsiding significantly in the hotter weather.

Surprisingly, our neighbors to the south, Mexico, are having a tough time getting the virus under control. The worst three nations, in respect to taking the longest time to recover from covid, which will probably not be until the end of this month at the earliest and maybe early July, are the Bangladesh, Pakistan and India cluster. Maybe Pakistan and India will build better relations if they can communicate to each other positive comments and ideas about combating the coronavirus. Realistically, probably not. It may be a good idea to put a hold on that curry order.

For the US states that have flattened their active case bell curve chart recently, the top in the active case chart occurs an average of 28 days beyond the peak date in new cases, as per the Keystone Model.

Louisiana

New Case Peak Date 4/2/20

Active Case (which indicates the maximum strain on the healthcare system) Peak Date 4/23/20 (21 days)

New Jersey

New Case Peak Date 4/3/20 (4/16/20 also a peak date)

Active Case Peak Date 5/20/20 (47 and 34 days)

Massachusetts

New Case Peak Date 4/24/20 (a huge spike in new cases occurs on 6/1/20 for a potential second wave coming?)

Active Case Peak Date 5/20/20 (26 days)

Pennsylvania

New Case Peak Date 4/24/20

Active Case Peak Date 5/21/20 (27 days)

Illinois

New Case Peak Date 5/12/20

Active Case Peak Date 5/30/20 (18 days)

Washington (state)

New Case Peak Date 5/1/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/29/20 (may have peaked 6/1/20)

These US states below show active cases rising so the strain on medical facilities will continue. Massachusetts may be slip-sliding away into this troubled group below.

New York (data is suspect)

New Case Peak Date 4/15/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/13/20 but chart continues higher

Florida (data is suspect)

New Case Peak Date 4/17/20 (5/21/20 and 5/29/20 are big days)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/15/20 but chart continues higher

Ohio (data is suspect)

New Case Peak Date 4/19/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/17/20 but chart continues higher

Texas

New Case Peak Date 5/15/20 (6/2/20 is another big day)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/12/20 (the active case curve is about to print a higher high)

Arkansas

New Case Peak Date 5/20/20 (6/1/20 is another big day)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/17/20

North Carolina

New Case Peak Date 5/30/20 (5/23/20 is another big day)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/27/20

California

New Case Peak Date 5/30/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/27/20

Michigan, Maryland, Georgia, Connecticut, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Minnesota and Tennessee are states with higher numbers of infections than other states but the data and charts available do not allow for proper analysis. Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are the worst states each not expected to peak with their active cases (max strain on medical facilities) until mid to late June.

California’s active cases chart is shown above and the top of the bell curve may not form until that late June early July time frame. That is an ugly chart perhaps the worst of the states where data is available.

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active case curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur.

As mentioned above, the news around the coronavirus pandemic has drastically subsided. It was doom and gloom up through a couple weeks ago but many Americans are now acting like covid is yesterday’s news. Everyone is anxious to get back to work except the minimum wage folks collecting both unemployment and a $600 government check for not working. But this is little solace for the disadvantaged population. As the Federal Reserve stated, 40% of the unemployed are making less than $40K per year. The class war will be exacerbated by another further division of rich and poor in America.

The virus also exposed how many Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and there are millions, in all social classes. Even business owners, that are supposed to be smart, have no savings or money set aside, or access to money, if times go bad. Times went bad so it should be too bad for them if capitalism existed. But it does not and crony capitalism will try and save the day.

The COVID-19 news has fizzled. The daily press conferences are gone. Dr Fauci rarely talks to the president anymore. The doctors are going to have some egg on their faces for all the doom and gloom projections. Nearly 110,000 US citizens have died from covid which is an epic tragedy but at least it is far better than the original projections of millions.

The US is in fair shape but there is concern that the recent reopening of the economy, and protests that are placing people close together, will bring a second wave. Several states above appear very worrisome so the US is likely not out of the woods as yet. The economies have reopened in all 50 states although to a varying degree.

The coronavirus pandemic came in with a roar but may be going out with a whimper. The next few days are important to see if those bad states worsen, or not.

In Pennsylvania, 3% of the government is laid off; a paltry amount compared to common citizens and these folks are each day deciding who will be allowed to return to work. It’s another day of crony capitalism in America.

The CDC, NIH and WHO, the Three Stooges, are the gang that could not shoot straight. The CDC has ongoing problems with testing programs. Trust has been lost in these organizations and interestingly it may lead to the public not believing the next warning that comes along.

The S&P 500 catapults higher in the 6/3/20 session powered by central banker largess. The ECB is set to pump the stock market higher in the morning with more promises of easy money and the Federal Reserve is on tap next Wednesday, 6/10/20, providing more goodies. The SPX jumps 42 big points today, +1.4%, to 3123 the highest level since early March.

The New England Journal of Medicine says hydroxychloroquine is no better at treating coronavirus than a placebo. President Trump continues to attack the governors saying they are weak at handling both the virus and the ongoing riots. Of course he does since he will have someone to blame in the future. US and China relations deteriorate daily. A tit for tat of actions is beginning. China achieved their goal all along concerning the trade negotiations which was to run the clock out into the November election to see what happens.

The COVID-19 pandemic is going into a lull period unless the recent protests, riots, and reopening of the economy pushes the new cases and active cases higher. COVID-19 consumed everyone’s lives but it is now fading from view like a teenage love; the only remaining visual remnant of the virus is the face masks required to enter most buildings and stores. King Trump refuses to wear a mouth diaper although humorously it would be useful in catching the daily verbal diarrhea.

The pandemic is in a lull right now. COVID-19 is off the front pages, for now. The coming days and few weeks will determine if the infections increase due to the social unrest occurring across the US.