RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart Cyclical Market Signal

Keystone has mentioned the slope of the 150-day MA on RUT a couple of times over the last month. The slope of the 150-day MA for any index or stock is very important since it tells you if the price action is in a cyclical bull, or cyclical bear market. Keystone uses the 150-day MA slope on the SPX as a key broad market indicator but since small caps typically lead, the flattening and potential roll over of the RUT 150-day right now is very important.

If, actually when, the slope of the 150-day MA turns negative the RUT will fall into a cyclical bear market. The RUT last flattened in late 2012 where the markets were going to roll over but the Congress saved the day to begin the new year in 2013. The last significant cyclical bear for the RUT with a  negative 150-day slope was mid 2011 through early 2012 and of course this encompasses the August 2011 waterfall crash. In fact, the slope turned negative as the crash occurred. By the time a few days went by and the slope was clearly moving down, the RUT had already dropped from 870 to 640, -26%.

Sticking to the here and now, the RUT remains in the cyclical bull since early 2012 over two years time. Using YHOO Finance's interactive chart for ^RUT, with a 150-day MA, the last several days of 150-day MA end-of-day prints are; 1152.23, 1152.38, 1152.47, 1152.80, 1153.09 and 1153.41 yesterday. Looking at the differences and rate of change between each; 15 cents, 9 cents, 33 cents, 29 cents and 32 cents. The market bears were within nine thin pennies of turning the 150-day MA slope negative and officially beginning a cyclical bear market in small caps.

But alas, the bulls slap the bears in the face again, backed by the Fed's easy money, and the RUT recovers. Check the 150-day MA each day forward to see if that spread tightens and if the slope turns negative. When that day occurs the market bears can pop champagne corks since their long wait for extended and significant market downside is finally at hand. Until then, however, the bulls continue to rule the roost with an over two-year cyclical bull market in small caps continuing. Obviously, if the RUT prints below 1153 going forward this will help create the roll over in the 150-day MA and a cyclical bear market ahead. The market bulls must keep RUT price above 1154 and heading higher to keep the cyclical bull market party alive with an upward-sloping 150-day.This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.