Friday, November 8, 2013

TWTR Twitter IPO 5-Minute Chart First Day of Trading Tags 50

Twitter tweets its way to victory yesterday. The NYSE took its time to make sure the IPO went off without problems since the FB debacle at the Nasdaq remains fresh in everyone's mind. At 10:47 AM, 77 minutes after the opening bell, TWTR begins trading. This is the longest time ever taken for an IPO to open after the opening bell. At 11:01 AM, TWTR hits 50. The initial price range before the road show started a couple weeks ago was 17-18. As interest grew, the range was raised to 23-25. The price was set at 26 in the evening on 11/6/13. The initial print as TWTR begins trading is 45.10. Instant millionaires are created. The big wigs, institutionals and inside traders all make a bundle. Joe Sucka runs in to buy TWTR after it begins trading and the price closes the day at 44.90 below the opening price. They all lost money. Every market needs a sucka. As George Carlin would quip, "it's a big club, and you ain't in it."

Note how price moves sideways through the day. It is folly to use technical analysis (TA) at this stage since Twitter is a virgin. Days and weeks need to pass before any chart patterns form and adequate moving averages are established. But clearly, on the 5-minute chart above, a support floor is established at 45.00 and a resistance ceiling at 47.75. Thus, bears win under 45.00 and bulls win above 47.75. Price may want to stagger through the sideways range a day or few to get its bearings. The HOD is 50.09 so pay attention to that number since it will launch lots more upside. The LOD is 44.00 which would launch lots more downside. All in all, a very good showing for the tweety bird on its first day. The market cap is near double what is originally projected which is ridiculous considering the company does not make money. If willing to hold the stock a couple years, any price entry today will likely work out. However, for any short-term trading, the anticipation would be for some exploration of lower prices moving forward due to a high valuation for a company that does not generate any profit as yet. TWTR is indicated higher in the pre-market at 45.30. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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