On Friday, 11/1/13, China PMI is slightly better than expected (18-month
high) although smaller manufacturers are clearly struggling. Copper
and commodities receive a slight lift. Sony lowers profit forecasts and collapses
-12% losing 2 billion in market cap in a heartbeat. Nissan cuts sales
forecasts. India gold sales are uncharacteristically
slow this year ahead of the Diwali
festival 11/3/13. Renault drops -4%. RBS
sets up an internal bad bank division to handle toxic assets and bad paper.
European banks remain sick since they are unable to implement a Tarp-type
policy like the U.S. in 2009. Revolts
and riots continue in France over the excessive tax policies. Hollande stands
firm on taxing the wealthy, such as soccer stars, despite the disastrous effects.
German
lawmakers meet with Snowden, the NSA whistleblower, to gather more information
on the U.S. spying and potentially offer him a job or have him testify to sort
out the extent of the spying; these actions strain U.S.-Germany relations.
Snowden would like to testify before Congress if possible. The euro is 1.3530
and the dollar is 80.41. Preliminary
information shows that only a shocking miniscule 6 people enrolled into
Obamacare via the web site during the first 24 hours of operation. As of 10/3/13 (two days in), approximately 250
enrollment applications had been processed. This number does not add up since the
Whitehouse said 6 million visitors had accessed the site by 10/3/13. Each day creates further confusion and now
several democrats are distancing themselves from the Obamacare debacle. GOOG,
YHOO, RHAT, ORCL and other tech companies offer help to make the web site
functional. This is not surprising since the tech companies apparently knew the NSA was accessing their data bases
through back doors violating privacy policies but they did nothing (the
large tech companies and government are all in bed together). Fed’s Plosser says an opportunity was
missed to begin the tapering of QE in September. CVX misses on earnings with profit dropping -6%. The
broad indexes open for trading and move sideways. ISM Mfg Index is up strongly. Markets drift
lower since good news is bad news (the Fed may
begin tapering QE if the economy improves). At 10:36 AM, the Nasdaq OMX Group closes the options
exchange due to technical errors. A significant
increase in order entries (probably due to HFT) inhibited the system’s ability
to handle the option volume or to provide accurate quotes. Trading continues on 11 other options
trading platforms. At about 12:30 PM EST, a suicidal, mentally ill man
opens fire at LAX (pronounced L-A-ex; the Los Angeles International Airport)
killing an airport employee. The incident dominates the news coverage. Wall
Street is concerned that the incident is terrorism but this fear quickly subsides.
Equities recover as the afternoon moves
along and the broad indexes are flat
on the day with the SPX and Dow higher, Nasdaq flat
and RUT small caps negative. For the week, the SPX is flat at +0.11% squeezing
out a new weekly high at 1761.64 with a doji candlestick. The Dow is flat unable to print a new weekly
high, about 40 points shy, at 15616.
The Nasdaq loses
-0.5% this week and the RUT loses -2.0%, a
drastic negative change for small caps. The RUT
prints an outside reversal week moving higher than the previous week but then
closing below, which is typically a bearish signal for markets. Energy stocks are weak with CVX the largest Dow loser. The SPX and Dow are on a 4-week winning streak.
U.S. car and truck sales slip in October. Gold and oil
drop about -3% this week. The Nadsaq
Options Market does not reopen for trading today.
After the bell, Berkshire (Buffett) misses on earnings but top line
revenue beats. The new iPad sales are strong. RBS suspends two traders in connection with the Forex currency-fixing
scandal. Fed’s Plosser says he is more worried
about the exit plan from QE (but he is a
hawk). The Fed wants the
banks to test whether they could survive if the stock market drops 50% in value.
Fitch rating
agency revises Spain’s debt outlook to stable from negative. China says
their submarines in the Pacific Ocean are outfitted with nuclear missiles that
can strike American cities.
On Saturday, 11/2/13,
China’s Xi says healthy economic growth is ahead.
Cuts to the food stamp program begin
which will hurt the disadvantaged folks
and also companies such as WMT where the food stamps are typically
redeemed. The
sun has erupted with nearly 30 solar
flares over the last week. This sends radiation and electromagnetic waves
towards earth that may interrupt
communication and other electronic signals. The sun is at solar maximum this year which is the peak of the 11-year solar cycle but the year has
been relatively quiet. Is the giant awakening to end the year stronger? Four of the flares are the stronger X-class.
Interestingly, solar flare eruptions
very often coincide with market selloffs such as the August 2011 waterfall
crash. World-wide earthquakes and storms increase over the last
month.
----------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 11/3/13,
the Obamacare
web site is down for maintenance all weekend long. The concern over
the healthcare law grows as more and more folks, who voted for the president, feel slighted seeing their premiums
double and triple with deductibles increasing. Folks will be forced to pay for such things
as maternity care if you are a senior or a man and prostrate coverage if you
are a woman. The enrollment of only 6
people on the first day is shameful. Nighttime comedian Jay Leno quips “ there are more people that walked on the
moon than signed up for Obamacare.” The enrollment also appears to be weighted towards Medicaid rather than
the healthy young folks the program needs to be financially stable. The contractors warned for over 6 weeks prior
to the Obamacare roll-out that the site is not ready but the administration
kept saying all is fine each day and went ahead with the release anyway. One of the contracts awarded for the
Obamacare web site appears to be an Obama family friend that may have received
a no-bid contract so Congress plans on investigating. People are disappointed in the president telling folks they can keep
their plan for the last 3 years purely so he could get reelected but he
apparently knew all along it was untrue. Further, the president will not acknowledge the lie and now says the plans that
folks liked, and could afford, are ‘bad plans’. Enrollment numbers are promised
by 11/15/13, 12 days away, and the Obamacare web site is supposed to be fixed
and fully operational on 11/30/13, only 27 days away. A worldwide poll now shows that Russian leader Putin is considered a stronger
leader than President Obama for the first time ever.
On Monday, 11/4/13, Japan trading is
closed for the Culture Day holiday. India is not trading to celebrate Dawali. Concerns
over the coconut supply continue as groves in areas such as the Philippines
become older and less productive. China
HSBC data shows growth stabilizing, however, copper and metals are weak in early trading. French farmers continue to riot despite
Hollande rolling back the ‘ecotax’ on
large trucks. Ryanair cuts forecasts and the stock dumps -10%. Alcatel-Lucent
loses -8%. Germany has no plans on offering asylum to Snowden, the
NSA whistleblower, but does seek further information on the spying that
occurred against Merkel and other European leaders. BBRY’s plan to sell
itself falls through, the CEO Heins is fired and the stock drops -15%. The
stock plummets to -19% and is halted. Fed’s Bullard appears on business
television creating buoyancy in the S&P
futures rising to +7.5 before the opening
bell. RLGY and VMC both report strong earnings and jump higher at the
opening bell encouraging the housing sector. K
beats on earnings but lowers guidance and plans
on axing 7% of its workforce. Firings are bullish for stock prices and K jumps +2%. Equities are buoyant to begin the day
but weak copper and commodities are limiting the market upside. Factory Orders are better than expected
creating a positive string of economic data over
the last few days, however, good news is bad
news for stock prices since the QE tapering may come sooner than expected.
Markets travel sideways in flat trading
all day long. SAC Capital reaches a settlement with Attorney General
Bharara where the company will plead guilty and pay a large fine, pending
approval by judges. Honda recalls Odyssey minivans. A
photo is snapped of HHS Secretary
Sebelius, in charge of the Obamacare debacle, as she is handed a ‘Web Sites for
Dummies’ book. The look on her face is priceless making her a further laughing
stock and national embarrassment. The Obamacare
web sites will now shut down from 1 AM to 5 AM EST each day forward to provide
programmers time to fix the code and run tests. Identity thieves are now targeting the Obamacare web sites. Congressional
leaders, including some democrats, want to see the websites taken off line
until these issues are handled properly. Ex-GOOG CEO Schmidt says the NSA using back doors to
access anyone’s personal information is ‘outrageous’ but it is likely faux
outrage since he probably knew about it and is likely trying to calm the
situation and possibly run cover ahead of further negative information yet to
be released. The volume is paltry
in today’ trading so the bulls float the
markets higher into the closing bell with gains for the broad indexes. Fed’s Rosengren
says the Fed should remain accommodative moving
forward which creates market lift. Trannies print another new all-time high at
7129 so Dow Theorists will watch to see if the Dow Industrials can
print a new high to confirm the upward market trend, or not. The airlines are up +2 and +3% today pumping the
Trannies. Energy is strong especially fracking
stocks. XOM gains +2.5%. Banks are weak.
TPH and WY (lumber) will merge. JNJ must pay over $2 billion to settle a fraud lawsuit
and ends the day lower. The 10-year yield is 2.61%. A survey shows that over one-fourth of Americans perceive China as the dominant economic
power. The Twitter IPO (TWTR) is oversubscribed and the price is raised
from $17-$18 to $23-$25. Global chip
(semiconductors) sales increase +9% compared to one year ago.
On Tuesday, 11/5/13,
China’s Li
warns against loose money policies and says economic growth must stay at 7.2%
or higher to ensure a stable job market. Nissan
plunges -12% on weak earnings. BMW drops -4%
on weak earnings and a high valuation. The EU cuts Eurozone forecasts. The ECB is
concerned over the low European inflation. European banks are weak. ECA (Encana Canadian
oil) to cut 20% of its work force. AAPL iPad
sales are far stronger than expected. Sixteen IPO’s hit this week, the
largest number in a couple decades. An ETF named ‘IPO’, that is a compilation
of IPO’s, recently opened for trading. There have been over 180 IPO’s this year far past the 128 for 2012 and 125 for 2011.
AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, JPM and CSCO are the
most widely held stocks in 401(k) plans.
The broad
indexes drop like a stone at the opening bell with the Dow down triple digits
and the SPX dropping from 1766 to 1756. As the markets tumble lower, two Fed papers circulate (English and Wilcox) written by
Fed economists that state the case for continued QE and potentially decreasing
the unemployment target which would maintain lower rates for far longer than
anyone expected. The stock market catapults higher off the QE crack cocaine
happy news and the Fed stick-saves the markets once again. The Fed is the
markets and their main mission is to keep the stock market elevated. Equities recover all the day’s losses and
then meander flat to finish the day slightly lower.
Small caps continue to weaken. After the
bell, TSLA beats on earnings but falls short of estimates and the stock drops
-10%. The Obamacare
mess continues with the president
now trying to change his oft-repeated mantra about keeping your doctor and your
plan (which was untrue) by saying you can keep your plan if it is
unaffected by the new law. Folks are
disappointed in the president since he promised things he knew were untrue
and he said it solely to get reelected. President
Obama’s favorable rating now drops into the 30’s at 39%, the lowest of his
presidency. There are far more older
and ill folks signing up for Obamacare than young people (that are needed
to fund the program). The Obama
administration is subpoenaed to turn over the enrollment numbers but they
have promised the numbers next week. A web site, www.mycancellation.com, gains
popularity where folks are displaying their health insurance rejection letters due to Obamacare.
On Wednesday, 11/6/13,
TM raises
sales forecasts but traders actually
expected more of an increase. The weaker yen boosts car exports. S&P futures
are +9. HSBC walks away from talks with
the EU to settle the Euribor scandal. Greek
labor unions go on strike. U.K.
industrial production is robust and the encouraging economic data continues.
Fed’s
Williams says the ‘stock market doesn’t seem highly valued’. How odd is it that the Fed is now directly commenting on
the stock market? Bart Chilton says he will depart from his CTFC post
over the coming weeks. Mortgage Applications are down despite lower rates. HHS Secretary Sebelius,
responsible for the ongoing Obamacare debacle, testifies before the Senate.
The broad indexes launch higher at the
opening bell but reverse to the downside at 10 AM. During the session, tech, biotech, small caps and Trannies all sell off but
the Dow explodes higher. Traders are taking profits in all the large
gainers this year and moving money into the perceived safety of blue chip,
dividend and consumer staple stocks. The SPX finishes up 8 points, +0.4%, to 1770,
but does not print a new all-time high. The Dow is up 129 points, +0.8%, printing a
new all-time high at 15750.29 and new all-time closing high at 15746.88. CVX and XOM are
big leaders. The Dow action serves to pump the dividend stock bubble higher. Nasdaq, RUT and TRAN all finish down. High-flyers GOOG, TSLA, LNKD
and others are sold off. The biotech, a
leading sector this year, is bludgeoned with the IBB -3% and XBI -4%. After the bell, the Twitter IPO (TWTR)
is priced at $26 above the $23-$25 range that is a revised higher range from
$17-$18. Obamacare is spoofed during the Country
Music Awards and becomes a laughing stock for the nation.
On Thursday, 11/7/13,
Asia markets are lower across the board. China
financials are under pressure due to a crackdown on shadow banking. Lenovo
sales are strong so it pops +2%. TM drops -1.3%. Bitcoin rises to a new high. Societe
Generale earnings miss estimates but it
trades +2.4% higher. BOE leaves their key rate unchanged at 0.5%. ECB’s Draghi is under pressure to cut rates as Europe
falls into disinflation and deflation. In the last 4 months, Europe’s inflation has fallen from 1.6% to 1.3% to 1.1% to 0.7%. The ECB’s mandate and mission is to push inflation to 2% but the
numbers are obviously slipping the wrong way. In a surprise move, the ECB Rate Decision is to cut the key rate
to 0.25%. The euro drops through
1.35 to 1.3375. Futures pop large on the news; S&P’s +7, Dow +70,
Nadsaq +10. At the press conference, Draghi says Europe may experience prolonged
low inflation. He says monetary
policy will remain accommodative with low or even lower rates for as long as
needed. Draghi is speaking very dovishly and the euro falls through 1.33. The
dollar pops and commodities all drop including gold,
oil and copper, however, equities rise. The global race to debase heats up again. Traders do not care if the Fed is beating the dollar lower with QE, or the BOJ weakening
the yen, or the ECB blasting the euro lower, since it all adds up to easy money to buy stocks.
The advanced reading for Q3 GDP is far stronger than expected at 2.8%. Markets are very jumpy moving into
the opening bell. The broad indexes leap
higher at the opening bell but retreat in short order. The major indexes all
turn negative as the Twitter
IPO (TWTR) is set to begin trading on the NYSE. At 10:47 AM, TWTR opens at 45.10, up +73% from the $26
IPO price. Twitter opens 77 minutes after the opening bell the
longest time for any IPO hitting the markets in history (the NYSE is careful to
not repeat the Nasdaq FB debacle). At 11:01 AM, TWTR hits 50, and this is in a
weak overall tape. The market cap was set at about $18 billion with the $26
price but at $50 the market cap is over
35 billion. Over half of TWTR’s shares
change hands in the first hour of trading. An analyst slaps a sell rating on TWTR with a price target of 30. The
TWTR IPO appears off to a flawless start but at 11:25 AM, transactions are halted for over-the-counter (OTC) stocks
due to a lack of quotation information. The OTC resumes trading 3-1/2 hours later at 3 PM and blames one of its
network service providers for the computer glitch. The broad indexes begin selling off in force as the
afternoon moves along. Oil, gold, copper and
commodities are all weak as the lower
euro sends the dollar higher. The Dow collapses triple digits and the S&P’s are down over
20 points. The Nasdaq is collapsing almost -2%. High-flyers are thrown overboard again with QCOM, AMZN, YELP
and Z down from -4% to -7%. FB and BIDU dump
-2%. A third TSLA car catches fire and the stock
plummets -8% now down -23% in 3 days and -28% off the top one month ago.
The NHTSA will conduct an inquiry to determine if Tesla automobiles have a
safety issue. SCTY is hit as well dropping -20%
so Elon Musk would have been better off to stay at home today. WFM is hit -10% on weak earnings. At the close, the SPX is down 23 points, -1.3%, to 1747
using the 20-day MA as support. The Dow loses 153
points, -1.0%, to 15594. The Nasdaq dumps 75
points, -1.9%, to 3857, looking
at the 4K goal in the rear-view mirror. The RUT loses 20 points, -1.8%, to 1079. The mo-mo stocks are
rolling over and tech and small caps are leading lower on a large volume day;
the largest volume day since the move off the September market top. The
CPC and CPCE put/call ratios remain low
showing that traders remain complacent, fearless and not concerned about
the selloff. TWTR closes below the 45.10 opening price. After the bell, GRPN dumps another -8% after losing -5% during the session on
weak guidance but recovers. PCLN dumps -9%
losing the 1000 level but recovers back
above 1000 after the company announces a new CEO. DIS earnings are in-line but traders dump the stock -3%
in AH’s trading. Worries surface over the retail holiday spending season. Marc
Faber warns that the markets are in a worse position than 2008. President Obama
bows to the public outrage and attempts an apology for lying that everyone
could keep their current insurance, but
the phrasing is a head-scratcher and confusing; ‘”I am sorry they find themselves in this situation….” The president is trying to apologize since the
democrats are now complaining and turning ranks but he is unable to
emphatically state an apology since he would admit that he is lying. What a web
the politicians, on both sides, weave for themselves. There is talk of now delaying Obamacare perhaps for
one year’s time. Complaints are increasing that the Obamacare web site now has
misleading information purposely listing low premium amounts that are known to
not reflect what people would actually pay. The Obamacare debacle is a
daily soap opera sucking all the oxygen out of the room.
On Friday, 11/8/13, China exports rebound. Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda),
the strongest storm to ever hit land fall, a Category 5 storm, hits the
Philippines with 200 MPH winds and 20-foot storm surges. IAG (British Airways and Iberia
Airlines) profit doubles and 3100 jobs are cut so the stock jumps +5%. S&P rating agency cuts France’s credit
rating to AA from AA+ based on weak growth ahead. It should not have been a
surprise but it is with the 10-year bond yield jumping to 2.39%. France finance
minister Moscovici says he ‘regrets the critical and inaccurate S&P
decision’. Hollande defends the French policies. Draghi’s rate cut
yesterday may have been due in part to him knowing the that the S&P rating
cut on France was imminent. The eruo is
1.3419. The health of the Slovenian
banking system is worsening. European markets trade lower. At 4:30 AM, S&P futures are +5 with the Dow +21 and
Nasdaq +12 recovering off yesterday’s big selloff. C says the
equity markets should rally another +13% by the end of 2014 which would place
the SPX at 1975. What are they smoking? Perhaps they will be correct? The Monthly Jobs
Report surprises to the upside with 204 K jobs but the unemployment rate ticks up to 7.3%. The prior months’
job numbers are revised upwards. Oddly, average
hours worked drops so companies
actually do not need to hire anyone if they cannot keep the existing employees
busy. Futures
drop on the news with the S&P’s -6,
Dow -60 and Nasdaq -6 since traders worry that the Fed will now taper QE sooner
rather than later. This is confirmed by the 10-year yield catapulting higher from 2.61% to 2.72%. The futures recover towards the flat line
ahead of the opening bell. MCD sales are in
line with expectations. GPS jumps +7% on
improving retail sales outperforming all the negative
prognostications. The broad indexes begin the day moving
sideways with upward buoyancy. Consumer Sentiment is 72.0 the lowest initial read on
sentiment since March. Sad consumers tend to not spend as much during the
holiday retail season. The broad indexes gain strength to the upside with the
S&P’s up 14 and Dow up 82. The utilities,
telecom and home builder sectors are beaten down due to higher yields.
The 10-year yield is 2.75%. Dip-buyers enter
the market in force undaunted by yesterday’s selling and launch markets
higher into the weekend. The broad indexes recover all the losses from
yesterday. This is not surprising since the uber market complacency remains as identified by the low put/call
ratios. The SPX gains 23 points, +1.3%, to 1771. The Dow gains 168 points, +1.1%, to 15761.78, printing a new
all-time closing high but not an all-time intraday high. The Nasdaq gains 62 points, +1.6%, to 3919.
The RUT
gains 21 points, +1.9%, to 1100. Financials lead higher with the XLF up
+2.3%. For the week, the SPX is up +0.5%, the Dow +0.9%, Nasdaq -0.1% and RUT +0.4%.
VIX is under
13. The CPCE put/call ratio is a low 0.51 continuing to signal
rampant complacency and a significant market top at hand. TWTR loses -7% on its second day of trading. After the
bell, Chairman
Bernanke says ‘the unemployment rate probably understates the degree of slack
in the labor market’. Jeff Zients, charged with fixing the Obamacare
web site, says progress is “very slow” and is a “long way from where it needs
to be.” The Whitehouse is backing away
from the promise to have a fully functioning Obamacare web site by the end of
the month. The president is taking more and more criticism over his half-hearted apology yesterday. An
AAPL iPad catches fire at a Vodaphone
store. Apple is given the iPad so they can analyze the problem.
On Saturday, 11/9/13,
Super
Typhoon Haiyan kills over 100 people creating mass destruction across the Philippines
heading for Vietnam. China inflation is at an 8-month high at 3.2% mainly
driven by higher food prices.
Interestingly, prior Chinese dynasties fell due to violent social unrest caused
by higher food costs. A train carrying crude oil derails and explodes in
Alabama creating an intense fire and perhaps reigniting talk about the Keystone
Pipeline project (that President Obama continues to prevent) that is a much
safer way to transport oil.
------------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 11/10/13, ….
On Monday, 11/11/13,
Veteran’s Day. Banks are Closed but Markets are Open.
2-day healthcare conference begins-watch healthcare sector (XLV).
On Tuesday, 11/12/13,
Fed’s Fisher, Kocherlakota and Lockhart speak
today. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Chicago Fed National Activity
Index. 3-Year Note Auction. Banking and financial services conference-watch the
banks (XLF). Keystone’s Eclipse Indicator targets 11/12/13 through 12/10/13 as
having potential for a major market selloff to begin.
On Wednesday,
11/13/13, Mortgage Applications. Atlanta Fed Business Inflation
Expectations. 10-Year Note Auction. Treasury Budget 2 PM. CSCO earnings. Industrials conference-watch industrials (XLI, CAT,
ETN, HON, etc…). Chairman
Bernanke speaks 7 PM.
On Thursday,
11/14/13, International Trade. Jobless Claims. Productivity and Costs. Fed’s Plosser
speaks. Natty Gas Inventories. Oil Inventories (one-day delayed). 30-Year Bond Auction. New Fed Chair
Nominee Yellen appears before the Senate Banking Committee. WMT, KSS,
JWN earnings (watch XRT and RTH).
On Friday, 11/15/13, OpEx. Empire
State Mfg Survey. Import and Export Prices. Industrial Production. Wholesale
Trade 10 AM will create a market pivot point. The
Obama administration provides detailed
enrollment numbers for Obamacare.
On Saturday, 11/16/13, ……
------------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 11/17/13, a full moon occurs. Markets are
typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Monday, 11/18/123,
TIC data. Housing Market Index 10 AM. E-Commerce Retail Sales. Fed’s Plosser and Kocherlakota speak.
On Tuesday, 11/19/13,
Employment Cost Index. Fed’s Evans speaks. Chairman Bernanke speaks 7 PM EST.
On Wednesday,
11/20/13, BOJ 2-day meeting begins.
Mortgage Applications. CPI. Retail Sales. Business
Inventories and Existing Home Sales 10AM will create a market pivot point.
Oil Inventories. Fed’s Bullard speaks. FOMC Minutes 2 PM will create a
market pivot point.
On Thursday,
11/21/13, BOJ
rate and policy decision. The BOJ must deliver more QE to weaken the yen
to send the Nikkei and U.S. equities higher moving into early 2014. If the BOJ
does not deliver the easy money, the yen will strengthen and the Nikkei will
sell off. Asian PMI’s. European PMI’s.
Fed’s Bullard speaks. Jobless Claims. PPI. Philly Fed. Natty Gas Inventories.
10-Year TIPS Auction.
On Friday, 11/22/13,
Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 11/23/13, ….
---------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 11/24/13, ….
On Monday, 11/25/13,
Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 11/26/13,
GDP. Housing Starts. FHFA House Price
Index. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market
pivot point. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. 5-Year Note Auction.
On Wednesday,
11/27/13, Mortgage Applications. Durable
Goods Orders. Jobless Claims. Personal
Income and Outlays. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market
pivot point. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Leading indicators.
Oil Inventories. Natty Gas Inventories (one-day early). 7-Year Note Auction.
Farm Prices. Markets tend to be bullish moving into and through the
Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
On Thursday,
11/28/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of
Thanksgiving holiday.
On Friday, 11/29/13, Markets Reopen for Trading but Close Early at 1 PM EST.
Today is EOM. Markets are typically
bullish from the last day of the month through the first 4 days of the new
month.
On Saturday, 11/30/13, ….
-----------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 12/1/13, …..
On Monday, 12/2/13,
Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s.
ISM Mfg
Index 10 AM which will create a market pivot point. A new moon
occurs in the evening. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new
moon.
On Tuesday, 12/3/13,
Motor Vehicle Sales.
On Wednesday,
12/4/13, Mortgage Applications. ADP
Employment Report. International Trade. Productivity and Costs. New Home Sales.
ISM Non-Mfg Index. Oil Inventories. Beige Book 2 PM will create a market pivot point.
On Thursday, 12/5/13,
ECB Rate Decision 7:45 AM EST and Draghi Press
Conference 8:30 AM. A rate cut will drop
the euro, pop the dollar, and likely send commodities lower. Chain Store
Sales. Challenger Job-Cut Report. Jobless Claims. Factory Orders. Natty Gas
Inventories.
On Friday, 12/6/13, Monthly Jobs Report. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Fed’s Plosser speaks. Consumer Credit.
On Saturday, 12/7/13, ….
---------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 12/8/13, …
On Monday, 12/9/13,
….
On Tuesday, 12/10/13,
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
JOLTS Job Openings Report. Wholesale
Trade. 3-Year Note Auction.
On Wednesday,
12/11/13, Mortgage Applications. Oil Inventories. 10-Year Note Auction. Treasury Budget 2 PM.
On Thursday,
12/12/13, Jobless Claims. Retail Sales. Import and Export Prices. Business Inventories. Natty Gas
Inventories. 30-Year Bond Auction.
On Friday, 12/13/13,
PPI. Congress
provides a detailed road map to handle the U.S. budget crisis moving forward.
On Saturday, 12/14/13, …
-----------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 12/15/13,
the initial sign-up
period for Obamacare ends for those beginning insurance on 1/1/14. The Whitehouse needs 7 million people
(mainly healthy young people) to sign-up
by March, otherwise, the program will start bleeding money and require a
future bailout by the taxpayers.
During Q4, European bank stress tests will begin and take one year
to complete (there are likely 10% of the 128 banks undercapitalized with no clear way on how to recapitalize
these troubled institutions). The one-year timeline is chosen to keep
stretching things out in the hope that the European economyrecovers before
further bad news occurs. Germany’s high court must decide if the
ECB’s OMT program is constitutional. Europe must finalize all plans for the new
banking union.
On Monday, 12/16/13,
Empire State Mfg Index. TIC data. Industrial
Production. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 12/17/13,
FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Is QE taper talk on the table? CPI. Housing Market Index. 5-Year Note
Auction. A full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the
full moon.
On Wednesday, 12/18/13,
Mortgage Applications. Housing Starts. Oil Inventories. 7-Year Note
Auction. FOMC
Meeting Announcement and Forecasts 2 PM
which will create a market pivot point. Chairman Bernanke Press
Conference and Q&A from 2:30 PM to 3:30 PM will move markets.
On Thursday, 12/19/13,
BOJ 2-day meeting begins. Jobless Claims. Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales 10 AM
will create a market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories. 5-Year TIPS
Auction.
On Friday, 12/20/13,
BOJ rate and
policy decision. OpEx Quadruple
Witching. GDP.
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 12/21/13, ….
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On Sunday, 12/22/13, ….
On Monday, 12/23/13,
Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago
Fed National Activity Index. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM
will create a market pivot point.
On Tuesday, 12/24/13,
Durable Goods Orders. FHFA House
Price Index. New Home Sales.
Richmond Fed Mfg Index. Markets Close Early for Christmas Eve.
On Wednesday,
12/25/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of
Christmas holiday.
On Thursday, 12/26/13,
Markets
Reopen for Trading. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Oil
Inventories.
On Friday, 12/27/13,
Natty Gas Inventories.
On Saturday, 12/28/13, …..
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On Sunday, 12/29/13, …..
On Monday, 12/30/13,
Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. Farm Prices.
On Tuesday, 12/31/13,
EOM. EOQ4.
EOY2013. S&P Case-Shiller. Chicago
PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point.
----------------------------- 2014 ----------------------
On Wednesday, 1/1/14,
Markets are Closed in Observance of New Years
holiday. A major Bradley turn date occurs where a major market
directional move is expected in the 12/23/13 through 1/8/14 time frame. The
Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one
way of the other. Another Bradley turns in quick order so the beginning of the
year may be a wild ride for the stock market. A new moon occurs. Markets are
typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Thursday, 1/2/14, Asia PMI’s. Europe
PMI’s. Markets Reopen for Trading.
Motor Vehicle Sales. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Natty Gas
Inventories. Oil Inventories (one-day delayed).
On Friday, 1/3/14,
…..
-----------------------------------------------------------
On Thursday, 1/9/14, a
Bradley turn date occurs where a market directional move is expected in the
1/2/14 through 1/16/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction,
only that a strong move will occur one way of the other.
On Wednesday,
1/15/14, a Continuing Resolution (CR) is needed to fund and keep the
U.S. government open.
On Thursday, 1/16/14,
a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full
moon.
On Wednesday,
1/29/14, Chairman Bernanke conducts his last
official two-day meeting (1/28 and 1/29)
as Chair of the FOMC.
On Friday, 1/31/14,
Chairman
Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. New
Chair Yellen takes over.
On Friday, 2/7/14, the Debt
Ceiling Limit is hit where the U.S. may default on obligations. Treasury
Secretary Lew will use extraordinary measures to extend this time forward so
late February or early March is a likelier deadline. Winter Olympics
begin in Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14.
On Wednesday, 3/19/14,
new Fed Chair Yellen talks at the conclusion of her
first FOMC meeting (3/18 and 3/19).
In February/March
2014, the Fed Chair Yellen testifies before
Congress.
In March 2014, the
ESM is
officially “fully operational.” The Euro banking union is in place after
delays from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.
In April 2014, MSFT no longer supports Windows XP.
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Speculator. All Rights Reserved. 2012. 2013.
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