The bears are finally pushing back today. The negative divergence finally formed on the 2-hour, 1-hour and 30-minute SPX charts that we have watched since Friday afternoon, and creates today's smack down. The SPX printed a new 2013 high at 1556.77 so this is a key resistance number to remember. The hourly and minute charts point to more downside ahead. Watch to see if the 8 MA crosses down through the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart since that will be a green light for bears. The VIX has recovered yesterday's drop now printing 12.57 the high for the day thus far. The TRIN is 1.01. Beggars cannot be choosers so the bears are happy with neutral 1.00, at least it is better than a sub one TRIN that provides bull fuel. If the TRIN moves higher from here that will supply bear fuel and increase the market selling. Bulls are trying to push the TRIN under one so they can regain mojo.
Commodities receive a push higher today. Copper is up. Oil is up but off today's highs. The euro is frozen at 1.3026. The 10-year yield is 2.02%. The subtle drop in yields today bolster the equity bear case. Note how the Italy 10-year yield is 4.61 moving higher towards the Spain 10-year yield at 4.75%. A European Bond Summary will likely be needed tomorrow morning to gauge this action. AAPL is 430. PVH bent over and ripped its pants today as this morning's negative divergence forecasted, down over 2%. GE is down over one percent. GOOG down 1.2% today. Volume remains light so bears are disappointed at that, however, watch the markets into the close since the volume could pick up dramatically if the selling accelerates.
Note Added 3/12/13 at 2:13 PM: Here's the test of the strong support at 1548. Okay bears, show us what you got. SPX will either bounce, or die. Look at the 8 and 34 MA cross described above.
Note Added 3/12/13 at 3:24 PM: The SPX bounces from the 1548 support. The 8 MA stabs down through the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart at 3 PM signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. However, the bulls are thrusting markets higher to try and spoil the 8/34 cross as they have done each time for the last couple weeks frustrating the bears. TRIN is 0.91 supplying bull juice. VIX is 12.36. Traders may be playing the OpEx Tuesday to Wednesday buoyancy buying the 1548 and looking to exit a few handles higher tomorrow morning. The hourly charts point to more weakness ahead for the broad indexes. Watch the 8/34 MA cross and the 1548 support into the closing bell. Volume remains very light today.
Note Added 3/12/13 at 4:03 PM: The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA so that is a bear victory but the importance of the opening bell tomorrow cannot be understated. The bulls will need a thrust higher to send the 8 MA back above the 34 MA. Otherwise, the market weakness will continue. Retail Sales hit in the morning the most important economic data point this week. The bulls have a victory today since they prevented the 1548 support failure. The Dow prints another all-time high at 14478.80 and new all-time clsoing high at 14450.06. Money is not leaving bonds in favor of stocks.
It looks like Apple keeps bouncing off the 429.
ReplyDeleteYep, its trailing off sideways, the MACD line on the weekly remains sloping down so the lower low remains in place and it may take a few days since the candlestick will need finished this week, then a candlestick for next week, so a long in Apple can probably be built from now through next week, and by then the MACD should be ready to go.
ReplyDeleteI think you guys spoke soon on the 429. For some odd reason APPL shorts and sellers like to punch it in the face 10 dollars on a sell off. I see a retraction at 425 ish. Tehn again KS, A non hold again of 435 led to 420's. We may see the 20/80 rule in effect if the markets sell off. I will buy APPL between 425 and 415 if a sell off occurs.
ReplyDeleteThere are a lot of traders anticipating a reversal here and beaucoup sell/warning signs. Meanwhile copper is up and the euro seems to have stopped declining. The longs appear to be all in... will SPX dip just enough to scare people and then head back up to bust through 1576?
ReplyDeleteLooks like commodities $GTX, or $CRB, or $GNX, and volatility $VIX will tell the story. If new highs are on tap for the SPX, the bulls will push GTX above 4930 and higher. If a more extensive down move is on tap, that will manifest and be verified with the VIX moving above 15. If the VIX remains under 15, the bears got nothing. A Vix over 15 and the bears will rule. Retail Sales data is very important and along with retail earnings will set the tone for Wednesday morning.
ReplyDeleteAddiction, can you spell it? can you sing it to the tune of Fiddler on the Roof? "ADDICTION! ADDICTION!".. Retail is up cause there is nothing better to do in a culture of corporate conformity than to spend money, and have the feds pump more into the systems to keep you addictive. Keep it going higher. Will the junkies crash? Come may they will. MArket wil keep this up for another month.
ReplyDelete