The 30-Year Bond Auction is on tap at 1 PM but it should not effect equity markets. The SPX just printed a new high for the day at 1561.54, a new high for 2013. The TRIN is sub one today, currently at 0.90. The TRIN came up to near one at 11:30 AM corresponding to the market lows, but the bulls pushed the TRIN lower again to provide the higher high in the SPX. Bears will have a long afternoon if the TRIN stays under one. The SPX 2-hour and 1-hour charts are setting up with rising wedges, overbot conditions and negative divergence, as highlighted this morning, so a down move should manifest as these higher highs in the SPX are placed. The VIX is languishing at the lows at 11.54, bears need higher volatility or they got nothing. The all-time closing high is 1465.15 and all-time high at 1576.09. The SPX is at 1560.89. Watch 1561.54. Support below is 1557, 1553 and 1548. The 10-year yield is 2.05%. The euro is 1.2997 moving higher approaching 1.30. The European markets are closing on a positive note today.
Note Added 3/14/13 at 2:57 PM: The 10-year yield is 2.02%, so money is flowing into Treasuries, the 10-year was 2.07% this morning, but money is also flowing into stocks, so the strangeness continues. TRIN is 0.80, under one, supplying bull fuel. VIX is parked at the lows all day today now at 11.56. The VIX moves inverse to the SPX and the VIX is now set up with falling wedges, oversold conditions and positive divergence on the hourly and minute charts looking for a strong move higher. The SPX continues to poke out new highs today, the HOD and new 2013 high is 1562.14 so watch that number closely moving forward. The 2-hour, 1-hour and 30-minute SPX charts are all agreeable to rolling over now from the negative divergence, however, the low TRIN is holding back the bears. The bulls are trying to push the SPX out sideways through the closing bell but with the negative divergence in place the action into the closing bell may become interesting. Crude oil is at 93. The euro is 1.30. The bank stress test information on capital requirements and dividend changes will be announced at 4:30 PM EST.
Note Added 3/14/13 at 3:46 PM: TRIN 0.72. VIX at 11.39, the LOD. So SPX keeps printing new highs. HOD and new 2013 high is 1563.32 less than two points from the all-time closing high. Bulls are running the clock out but the chart set-ups remain in place for tomorrow.
KS, You used to frequently mention certain levels for the $UTIL, RTH, JJC, $VIX, XLF, GSG Commodity Index, and $SOX that were relevant to the Keybot.
ReplyDeleteWhat is Keybot looking at now to signal a change of trend?
thanks,
tw
Keybot is simply idling along the last few days just like the markets overall. More bull fuel will occur at GTX 4930. The bears need the VIX above 15. Both are holding their ground so the markets travel sideways with an upward bias. Copper is important as well. Markets are in a slow-motion melt-up.
DeleteKS, thanks for all your charts, posts and updates. It's rising wedged, neg. div. and OB every where on each time scale and the market just keeps on motoring along... when will it end. I am all out of longs since 1550 and have started to accumulate shorts since 1555. NOT TRADING ADVICE. I'd like to see price hit 1565-ish, which would be the 2.0x extension of wave i of 5 up, with wave 1 being the up trend from 1485 to 1525; 40 points (1485 + 2.0x 40 = 1565). But right now the SPX is in between the 1.764 and 2.0 extension and may well have had enough... time will tell.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. From a basic five-wave move the move off the mid-November bottom would place this final push from 1485 to 1562 as the final wave. It appears markets are at an inflection right now so next few days will be interesting, probably next week thru the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, so this time next week may be entirely different markets.
DeleteYes, but IMHO just the final wave of a big 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave (this has now been on going for 4 month -80 trading days to be exact- with only a few marginal pullbacks; which are the hallmarks of a 3rd of a 3rd wave: keep on going and going and going; against all odds.) A ~4% pullback to ~1500s for a bigger 4th, then a 5th to new all time highs in the SPX (probably 1600+). Then a bigger 10% correction for the next higher degree 4th; another 5th up to 1650-1700 and we're talking Q4 2013, Q1 2014 by then. After that 50%+ haircut!?
DeleteRe: AAPL. What I currently see forming is an ascending triangle (bullish), since the March 4th low; with the horizontal bar at around 435 and the ascending bar sloping up touching the March 7, and 13 lows. The width of the triangle is ~$15, suggesting an upside target of $435+$15 = $450. May very well not be the case, but just something my eyes caught.
ReplyDeleteGood eye, that looks like a very good concept. Note the importance of 450 in late February so that would serve as attractive resistance.
Deletethanks, yes and it would also be in line with your predictions based on the falling wedge etc. I am still long since 422, looking for that 450 area.
Deleteps: note the intra-day price pattern since the 1562 top until now looks an awful lot like (a fractal of ) the April-July 2012 daily time frame so far...
ReplyDeleteI hope the SPX closes above 1565 or even runs to 1576 just to get this over with....
ReplyDeleteLooking at the charts of the last few weeks (better since the wave 3 at 1534 top and wave 4 low at 1485), an amazingly accurate bearish rising wedge is now forming, which barely deviates from the upper and lower ascending trendlines by mere pennies. The upper line of the wedge connects the Febr. 25, March 5, 8, 11 and 12 highs. The lower line of the wedge connects the Febr 26, March 1, 13 and 14 lows. The wedge targets 1566.
ReplyDeleteSignifance of that number!? Let me explain the 2.0 extension of wave i of wave 5 is also at 1566 (1485 + 2.0 x40). AND if we assume wave 1 is 81 points (1343-> 1423), wave 3 is 133 points (1398->1531), then wave 5 (of this higher degree 3rd wave) equals wave 1 at 1566. (1485+81)...
So 3 pieces of evidence pointing at the same target. coincidental? Meaningful? The market will tel soon enough. I am now short since 1555 and added at the close some more. NOT TRADING ADVICE
KS, CPC round trip sub 0.75. In a week! Looking for sell off next week to let air out of tires before we move higher into earnings. Bears have to wait until after earnings season until May for real sell off.
ReplyDeleteawful brave of you arnie to front-run shorts in this bull market.
ReplyDeleteThe CPC is interesting, dropping to 0.73. This verifies the low VIX and says the complacency is rampant. Any analysts or traders that appear on television and say they are looking for a pull back and worried, are not. After the interview, they are running to the markets to buy the long side as the CPC and VIX show. The next several days will be very interesting. There is no risk of outside events priced into the markets at all. If something hits, it will be quite dramatic. Italy is front and center today, through the weekend and early next week. The FOMC is the Superbowl for the markets and that will be high drama next Wednesday from 2 PM EST into the closing bell.
ReplyDelete