Keystone's Morning Wake-up 4/18/12

Futures are at their lows, the S&P's pointing to a lower open.  Since higher semiconductors and lower volatility bounced markets yesterday, they will again tell the tale when the bell rings. Watch SOX 422.25, now at 423.20, about one point on the bull side which keeps markets buoyant. If the SOX drops under 422.25, the markets will noticeably weaken.  IBM and INTC are down pre-market but YHOO is up as a result of the earnings releases last evening.  Watch VIX 19.00, now at 18.46, one-half point on the bull side which keeps markets buoyant.  The market bears want to see a spike over 19 since this will usher in broad market selling.

Markets may remain in a holding pattern ahead of the Spain auctions now only 20 hours away.  A market pivot point occurs at 10:30 AM with Oil Inventories. For the SPX, starting at 1391, bulls need to see only two points higher, if 1393 is touched, the upside will accelerate with the SPX moving up thru the 20-day MA at 1395, then a move to test the psychological 1400. The futures have a different plan for the opening minutes, however. The bears need to stop the upside momo and they accomplish this with moving the SOX under 422.25 and moving the VIX above 19. A move thru SPX 1370-1392 is sideways action today.