Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers Week of 4/23/12

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Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time.  The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.

Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:

·         Monday, 4/23/12:  The European debt crisis drama continues; Greece, Portugal, Hungary, Spain, Italy and France all remain at risk with yields moving up towards the November-December 2011 levels. Last week, news on the potential future downgrade of France by Moody’s rating agency caused markets to sell off.  The France election results should be announced about 8 PM EST Sunday evening, perhaps sooner. If Sarkozy loses, the markets will likely favor the bears but this outcome is anticipated already. The runoff election is 5/6/12. The France-Germany Spread is a key indicator to watch this week. Congress is in session which is a market negative. Watch HSBC Flash China PMI which is targeted for release about 10:30 PM EST Sunday evening.  The PMI has remained below 50 indicating economic contraction; a number above 50 will send copper, commodities and equity markets higher, a number remaining at 49 or lower should weaken markets.  Also watch for a triple R cut by China that would pump markets higher with liquidity. Earnings continue in full force this week.  Earnings have beat lowered expectations for the most part thus far although several companies are reporting lower revenue as compared to a year earlier—which is going in the wrong direction if folks are expecting companies to hire.  A Bradley turn date occurs today so watch for a market trend change.  Considering that the SPX is moving thru a sideways symmetrical triangle, and now sits near the apex, a decision should occur strong up or strong down for markets early this week. The France elections and HSBC Flash PMI will dictate futures markets tonight but based on the Friday OpEx action, the markets would actually favor some buoyancy on Monday morning due to the lower move into the Friday close. Earnings: COP, DHI, ETN, ETH, HAS, HMA, ILMN, KNL, NFLX, STI, TXN, XRX.

·         Tuesday, 4/24/12:  FOMC Two-Day Meeting Begins. The housing sector is a major focus today. S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index 9 AM. New Home Sales, FHFA House Price Index, Richmond Fed Mfg Index and Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM-one of Keystone’s important monthly indicators. Look for a market pivot point at 10 AM.  2-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Earnings: ACPW, APD, AKS, AMGN, AAPL-Apple is the markets-looking for 11.80 bottom line and 41 billion top line, BIDU, BHI, BYD, BWLD, CE, CBI, CRDN, CIT, COH, DV, FTI, HGSI, HSY, IEX, ITW, IGT, IRBT, JNPR, KSU, LXK, MMM, NBR, NSC, OSIS, PCAR, PNRA, PH, PNR, RSH, RF, T, TASR, TCP, WIRE, X, UTX, WAT, WBSN, WAB.

·         Wednesday, 4/25/12:  Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM.  Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. 5-Year Note Auction 11:30 AM.  FOMC Meeting Rate Announcement 12:30 PM-traders are all ears for any mention, or lack of a mention, of QE3, listen for the word ‘accommodation’. FOMC Forecasts 2 PM-watch for any member changing from dovish to hawkish or hawkish to dovish. Chairman Bernanke Press Conference 2:15 PM.  Look for a market pivot point at 2 PM. Earnings: AKAM, ATI, BA, COG, CAT, CRUS, CTXS, CLF, GLW, CROX, CCI, DAL, DBD, LLY, ELX, GD, GNC, HOG, HES, HCBK, IDCC, KBR, LVS, MSA, NOV, NFX, NOC, OC, PX, RRC, ROK, RYL, SKX, S, TER, TEX, TMO, TSCO, TQNT, TUP, VALE, VAR, GRA, WLP, WMB, XLNX, ZIP.

·         Thursday, 4/26/12:  Jobless Claims 8:30 AM.  Chicago Fed Activity Index 8:30 AM.  Pending Home Sales 10 AM.  Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index 11 AM.  7-Year Note Auction 1 PM.  Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM.  Earnings: AET, AMLN, AMZN, APU, BWA, BMY, BG, DDD, ELY, CSH, CERN, CLWR, CME, CL, CNX, COR, DLR, D, DOW, EMN, GILD, GTLS, GR, HW, HP, HERO, JBLU, K, KMT, KEG, KLAC, LLL, LINE, LIZ, LMT, MO, NANO, NIHD, NBL, NWPX, NXPI, OXY, OSK, PAR, PTEN, PEP, PHM, QLIK, RTN, SWY, SWKS, SONS, SBUX, HOT, TLAB, TSRA, TYC, UPS, UTHR, WDC, WM, WHR, XOM, YNDX, ZMH.

·         Friday, 4/27/12: GDP 8:30 AM.  Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM. Look for a market pivot point at 10 AM-ish. Earnings: AXL, CVX, CVH, COV, DTE, F, IMGN, IP, KKR, MRK, NEM, PVR, PPC, PG, RUTH, SPG, GT, VFC, WY.

·         Monday, 4/30/12:  Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM-Fed favorite. EOM.

·         Tuesday, 5/1/12:  ISM 10 AM.  Look for market pivot point 10 AM-watch energy markets.

·         Friday, 5/4/12:  Monthly Jobs Report 8:30 AM- after the Good Friday debacle last month the jobs report is extremely important; did last month start a new leg lower for jobs, or, was it a one-month blip in the data? The jobs numbers must exceed 200K for all months forward to show a true recovery in place taking QE3 off the table.

·         Sunday, 5/6/12:  France Runoff Election. Greece elections.

Note Added 4/23/12 at 5:12 AM EST: Sarkozy lost to Hollande as expected. S&P futures only lost a couple points on the news but perhaps more weakness will occur in markets as Hollande's ideas are scrutinized.  The big news was the HSBC Flash China PMI coming in at 49.1 showing six consecutive months of a contracting China economy. PMI under 50 is contraction, over 50 is expansion. Diesel shipments are down strongly to China. Diesel is an important fuel for shipping, earth-movers and other construction equipment so the lower diesel numbers reinforce that all is not as well in China as the media continues to profess.  The S&P futures are down 13 at this writing, the Dow Industrials down over 100, the Nasdaq futures down 22.  Tech is not leading the downside but rather the weakness in commodities markets are leading down due to the Flash PMI. The behavior of volatility and financials is very important after the opening bell rings.