Wild day on tap so far. Keybot the Quant is currently testing the levels where a potential whipsaw may occur, no change yet. SPX:VIX ratio is under 68 signaling a big down day on tap. Volatility, VIX, is up over 20 now. SPX 1354 R held today but then gave way a half hour ago which led to the assault higher for markets. UTIL has remained below 451.17 all day which continues to forecast bearishness ahead for markets. AAPL is in a strong parabolic orgy move right now, tech is leading the broad markets higher as usual. It will be quite spectacular when Apple's parabolic move reverses since it single-handedly took the entire broad markets higher since mid-January.
Note Added 2/15/12 at 12:56 PM: AAPL came off the top today, initial drop was ten bucks with SPX dropping about 3 bucks. Comparing the two from the top today, AAPL down from 526 to 508, about 18 points, while SPX down from 1355.5 to 1350.5, about 5 points. Looks like the SPX is calibrated to AAPL in a 1 to 4 buck ratio. Thus, if Apple is now giving up the ghost, every four dollar drop in AAPL will account for a dollar drop in the SPX. SPX is tumbling thru support, like a heavy piano falling down thru floors inside an apartment building. SPX punched thru 1354, so 1357 would be next but the 1354 did not hold long, and failed, then thru 1351 (the breakout area today), then 1350 (the close yesterday), then 1349, now the strong and sturdy 1347 is catching the fall. Bounce from 1347.32 a minute ago. 10-day moving average is 1345.67. SPX 1344 is very strong support even stronger than 1347 S. 1337 also very strong S.
Note Added 2/15/12 at 1:05 PM: SPX 1347 support failure. S/R is 1347, 1345.67, 1344, 1337. Keystone's SPX:VIX ratio is at 63 now well under 68. That was a tell all day that markets were sick despite the earlier upside. Likewise, the UTIL staying under 451.17 means troubled times ahead for markets. There remains a long day ahead, three more hours of trading. Keybot the Quant remains short without a whipsaw so far today, and the liklihood of a flip back to the long side should diminish drastically if these current SPX levels exist for another hour of trading. Tricky day today. Keystone is shorting silver currently but no time for charts right now. SPX now back kissing the 1347 S/R. See if price can regain 1347 and use it as support moving forward, or, if the back kiss is successful, price will collapse in failure from here.
Note Added 2/15/12 at 2:48 PM: SPX playing around at 1347 S/R for the last couple hours. Looks like price is favoring the underside and also went down to bounce off 1344 support a short time ago. The 10-day MA is 1345.51 so it will attempt to stem the fall. 1344 and 1337 likely coming. Dow Industrials are under 12800 now and were down triple digint a few minutes ago. SPX:VIX ratio is at 63 and continues to call for a large market down day. AAPL making lower lows and lower highs since 1:30 PM. Apple and tech continuing to provide support under the markets, even as the broad indexes move lower.
What is your downside target for silver?
ReplyDeleteHello Curious, Keystone went into ZSL yesterday, so only looking at that one, perhaps a ride to 11.80. It's printing 10.43 now and the 20-day MA is 10.55, jumping above that would be bullish. ZSL is highly dangerous double inverse ETF, it enables a trader to lose their money very quickly. Keystone likes the positive divergence on ZSL on daily and weekly charts, if it does not go up will probably add more. Commodities are highly dangerous, gold and silver markets are psychotic, capable of jaw-dropping moves in any direction at any time.
ReplyDeletewe all knew this day was coming. Given AAPL enormous weight in the tech and SPX markets one could only conclude that so AAPL goes so goes the market. AAPL's parabolic move up scared me -like it was a pennystock- and I didn't touch it since last Thursday. If down trend continues it should test ~460-430 area IMHO
ReplyDeleteHello Arnie, 494-ish looks like good support and gap fill, then the 477-480 gap fill, yep, 460 is sturdy horizontal support, also 455, and the island top formed starting at 444. Keystone will post the AAPL charts soon but everything is behind since the markets require close watching. The Fib retracements based on the November low show downside targets of 463.7, 444.6 and 425.5 (38%, 50% and 62% Fib's, respectively). So 430-444 is the big gap. So price may come down and perform an island reversal where price collapses from 444 to 430 in a heartbeat, creating the island. Or, price may simply come down and fill that gap.
ReplyDeleteThe momo is so strong in AAPL that it needs to burn that energy off before being able to move lower to any great extent. Therefore the tricky part is where it bounces for the move back up. The first Fib at 38% is always a useful level to consider and that is the 463.7 number.
keystone! cool, glad to see my TA levels are similar to yours. That gives confidence to the validity of our numbers.
ReplyDeleteI haven't touched AAPL since last Thursday, and see; if one would have jumped in, all gains would have been erased in 1 day.... scary. Don't chase, let the trade come to you.
ps: your keybotthequant is still in sell mode? even though the market broke 1355 (though only temporarily)
Hello Arnie, yep, Keybot was thru the 1355.42 but it has to hold it according to a timer, and it fell short and then the market rolled over so it worked out well. All the levels I call out typically have to be held from five to ten minutes before they can be locked in. The bulls had a noble effort today at lunchtime, but once AAPL rolled over, the markets goose was cooked. Tomorrow is another day.
ReplyDelete