Keystone's Midday Market Action 2/13/12

The bell rings and equites run upwards.  AAPL crosses the 500 level in concert with the SPX popping above 1351.  Of more important interest is the utilities, UTIL, that popped above the critical 451.17 level, only to collapse back under.  Watch this closely today, the battle fo 451.17 is extremely important.

Keystone's SPX:VIX ratio popped above 68 so this provides the bulls some street cred. Current print is 68.89. The SPX is up 0.60% while the Nasdaq is up 0.74% so the tech sector continues to lead the broad markets higher day after day. Watch SPX 1351, since price only held above for five minutes thus far, and also UTIL 451.17 and SPX:VIX 68.

Note Added 2/13/12 at 9:43 AM:  Note the big fight at UTIL 451.17. This is important since the utilities have logged two downtrend weeks in a row which is very bearish for markets moving forward. If the bulls regain 451.17, it is a big feather in the bull's cap.  Conversely, if the market bears defend 451.17 this week, this will strongly bolster the bearish case for the markets. Current print 451.07.........high drama.......451.02.......

Note Added 2/13/12 at 9:49 AM:  The SPX is leaking lower since the opening pop, thus overhead R at 1351 and 1354 remains key. SPX:VIX ratio is 69.03, bull friendly.  Whoa, UTIL is where the action is at today, now printing 451.15....now 451.25 trying the bull side....now 451.02 back to the bear side, quite a drama.

Note Added 2/13/12 at 9:56 AM:  Market bears slash the utilities lower.  UTIL now 450.25, a big feather in the bears cap successfully defending 451.17, so far.  Now printing 449.83 a point and one-half under the critical 451.17 firmly favoring bears. Keep an eye on it.

Note Added 2/13/12 at 11:12 AM:  The SPX remains unable to break back above 1351, so far.  The SPX:VIX ratio remains above 68 favoring bulls.  Lower volatilty favors bulls.  Copper and commodites remaining elevated favors bulls.  The market bulls know they need UTIL above 451.17, or they got nothing today.  Here comes the utilities again for another fight at 451.17, seven minutes ago price popped above.  UTIL dropped back under 451.17 two minutes ago now its back above again at 451.36.  Market bulls are pushing now, see if the bulls can keep UTIL above 451.17 for seven to ten minutes, or not. Tech continues to lead the upside, bulls becoming more emboldened with AAPL reaching 500.

Note Added 2/13/12 at 11:20 AM:  UTIL receives a spank down, now printing 450.80 so the market bears are not going to let up either.  The market bulls cannot take the markets higher unless they punch UTIL up thru 451.17 and it stays above. Here we go again, how many times has price crossed 451.17 already today? UTIL now printing 451.28. Bulls and bears are fighting for market control. SPX:VIX is 69 on the bull's side.

Note Added 2/13/12 at 11:34 AM:  JJC now printing 49.33 inching lower towards 48 which will provide the market bears with substantial strength. The euro is off its highs which caused the markets to pull back; euro moves down=dollar moves up=equities move down. UTIL now printing 451.19........451.23......keep watching.

Note Added 2/13/12 at 1:03 PM:  The market bulls gave up the ghost with UTIL failing at 451.17, and dropping, now printing under 450 at 449.87. The close in UTIL today in reference to 451.17 is more imporant than the broad indexes.  Just like last week, if UTIL cannot move above 451.17, this supplies the market bears with street cred and some oomph to perhaps try to attack CRB 310.50. The bulls win above UTIL 451.17.  The bull-bear standoff continues if UTIL is under 451.17 but the CRB is above 310.50 (like now).  The bears win below CRB 310.50. Dollar is becoming buoyant, euro is flat, copper is red today.

Note Added 2/13/12 at 1:24 PM:  The SPX is attacking the 1351 resistance, if price breaks up and thru it will try for 1354. Tech is leading the upside so market buoyancy continues.  SPX:VIX is over 70 now, firmly favoring bulls.  UTIL at 450.16 favors market bears. If the SPX can maintain 1351 support the bulls will try for 1354.

Note Added 2/13/12 at 4:10 PM:  As mentioned in the morning missive, once the SPX broke thru 1351, and it held for several minutes, a test of 1354 was on tap.  Price came up to place a HOD today at 1353.35, and failed.  The SPX then tumbled lower to test the 1351 support again since 1354 R failed. The SPX is closing at 1351.77, so the 1351 S held. This sets up for another test of the 1354 R for tomorrow. UTIL finished at 449.41 so it is obvious the market bears won the fight over 451.17 today--and a major victory it is for the bears, in fact, this caused the afternoon swoon in the broad indexes.  The market bulls got nothing unless UTIL moves above 351.17. Today, after the back-and-forth soap opera into lunchtime, UTIL rolled over and stumbled lower.  The CRB is above 310.50, the JJC above 48, the VIX below 26, the SPX:VIX above 68, and tech continues to lead the overall markets, all bull friendly indications that keep the broad indexes elevated. Tomorrow the drama will pick up from the same spot, UTIL 451.17 and CRB 310.50 are key.  Retail Sales numbers hit tomorrow which will greatly impact markets. Keystone remains negative on the retail sector.